Conference Play has arrived in the first "Power Six" conference, the Big Ten, and the matchups slated for this afternoon do not disappoint as the Iowa Hawkeyes go to take on the ranked high-scoring Ohio State Buckeyes and the ranked Maryland Terrapins head to Lansing, Michigan, to take on perennial Big Ten power, Michigan State. In addition to the Big Ten action, we have top teams taking on solid mid-majors in Charlottesville, Virginia: Lawrence, Kansas: and Waco, Texas.
1:00 PM EST-ESPN2
9-4 Iowa
11-2 20. Ohio State
I hope all teams are ready for their Big Ten opener today, because even the best teams have a chance to lose if they do not show up. The Iowa Hawkeyes struggle against ranked opponents period. So far this season, all of the Iowa Hawkeyes' losses have came against ranked teams or previously ranked teams. The trend started in New York City when Iowa was playing in the 2K Classic against the number nine ranked Texas Longhorns. Iowa played very well in the first half and had a six point lead going into halftime, but coming out of the break, the Longhorns stampeded and outscored the Hawkeyes by twenty in the second half in route to a 71-57 win. The next day in the Consolation Champioship against twenty-third ranked Syracuse, Iowa came three points short as Orange Freshman Chris McCullough had a fantastic game with 20 points and 9 rebounds to avoid back-to-back losses for his team. The Hawkeyes went into the 2K Classic 2-0 and in less than 30 hours after it started they were 2-2. Wouldn't that stat alone leave a team with a bad taste in their mouth going forward? If it did for Iowa, there was no hint of it as the Hawkeyes won six straight games after leaving New York City including their ACC/Big Ten Challenege game on the road against twelveth ranked North Carolina. That would have been a great way to come into Big Ten play but they had two tough games remaining on their non-conference schedule with fourteenth ranked Iowa State and a Northern Iowa Panthers club that was ranked but dropped out of the Top 25 before the matchup. Both were big games not only because of the quality of competition but because they were both in-state rivals to the Hawkeyes. The first game was out of Iowa's control early in the second half as Iowa State's Georges Niang (JR) led his team to a 90-75 victory in Iowa City. Surely Iowa wouldn't lose both games against hated rivals, would they? Early on against UNI, Iowa had the game in hand and was shooting the ball fairly well but then the "bricks" started to occur and the Hawkeyes finished the game shooting a pitiful 27.5% from the field ultimately leading to another loss. Will Iowa be able to shoot well enough to defeat Ohio State in Columbus?
For most teams that lost their top three leading scorers including their four-year starting point guard, this season would be a rebuilding year, but not for Ohio State. The three players that graduated from the OSU last year were LaQuinton Ross, Lenzelle Smith Jr., and Aaron Craft, all who were big contributors in the Buckeyes success last season. So what did Coach Thad Matta do to avoid a poor 2014-2015 season? He brought in two Freshman that are averaging double-figures in points (D'Angelo Russell (17.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, and 5.3 RPG) and Kam Williams (10.2 PPG)) and is playing Sophomore Marc Loving more minutes, which has led to his second year avergaes to skyrocket to 12.4 PPG and 3.1 RPG. Despite being ranked in the Top 25, Ohio State has also struggled against ranked opponents as their two losses have came against number five ranked Louisville at the KFC Yum! center and at home against then number twenty-four ranked North Carolina. In fact, most of the opponents the Buckeyes have defeated in non-conference play have been little inferior schools in exception to Marquette. So for me to really determine what kind of Ohio State club is walking around in Columbus, I will have to see how the Buckeyes perform against their opposition in the Big Ten including today's opener against Iowa.
The Iowa Hawkeyes' keys of the game is to play smart basketball and to shoot for good percentages from the field, beyond the arc, and the charity stripe. I personally think experience could play a factor in today's game since Ohio State's best players are young, minus Sam Thompson (SR), and the Hawkeyes play veterans like star Aaron White (SR), Jarrod Uthoff (JR), and Gabriel Olaseni (SR). In addition to using their experience, Iowa needs to shoot better as in all four of their losses they have shot at or below 40%. For the Buckeyes, I believe the key is to run in transition and push the basketball. Ohio State has one of the more athletic teams in the Big Ten and if they can use it to their advantage without making stupid, young guy, turnovers, they will be in the hunt for the conference crown with number four ranked Wisconsin and number twelve ranked Maryland.
One on One
Iowa's Aaron White (SR) versus Ohio State's Marc Loving (SO).
Aaron White has been around for what seems like forever (four years) meaning that he has played in almost every situation possible. The Senior from Strongsville, Ohio, (15.8 PPG & 7.2 RPG) does most of his "work" on the block and in the paint as he has a great set of post moves with a jumpshot with a soft touch. Marc Loving has finally received the playing time he deserves with the graduation of last year's Seniors. This season his minutes have doubled while his points average has almost tripled. He is the opposite kind of player than Aaron White as he lives on the wing and shoots the very high percentage of 57.8% from beyond the arc while not being afraid to put the ball on the floor and drive to the basket.
---Ohio State 67, Iowa 60
3:00 PM EST-ESPN2
10-3 Illinois
7-5 Michigan
Whoever losses won't make the NCAA Tournament! Who am I kidding both may not make the NCAA Tournament. The Illinois Fighting Illini are the team with the bettter chance of making the "Big Dance" at this point of the season as they have quality wins against Baylor in the Las Vegas Invitational Championship and against their hated rival, the Missouri Tigers, in the "Braggin' Rights game" held at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis. Coach John Groce is fortunate to not only have a great Senior scorer in hometown kid and former Drake Bulldog Rayvonte Rice (17.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG, & 1.8 APG) but young contributors in Sophomores Malcolm Hill (13.0 PPG & 5.7 RPG) and Kendrick Nunn (9.0 PPG & 2.8 RPG) meaning that when Rice graduates the future will continue to look optimistic for Illinois. Despite it being a positive to have young scorers to complement Rice, the inconsistency of support scorers around the three have cost the Fighting Illini in the biggest games this season. When Illinois had its ACC/Big Ten Challenge showdown with undefeated number fifteenth ranked Miami while having the record of 6-0, the Fighting Illini shot terrbly from the field (33.3%) and beyond the arc (23.3%), which led to a 70-61 defeat. Later when the team flew to New York City to play the seventh ranked Villanova Wildcats in Game 1 of the Jimmy V Classic, Illinois allowed the Wildcats to shoot 53.7% while only hitting 41.0% of their own shots. Finally, in Illinois' last loss at the United Center against Oregon, the team had another bad shooting percentage except for Rayvonte Rice as the Illini shot 35.9% from the field. Will all the players finally perform together efficiencly in time for a harsh beginning to the Big Ten season (@ Michigan, @ 20. Ohio State, and home against 12. Maryland)?
No Nik Stauskis (8th pick overall by Sacramento), Glenn Robinson III (40th pick overall by Minnesota), nor Mitch McGary (21st overall pick by Oklahoma City) equals BIG PROBLEM. All three of the previously mentioned players were drafted in the 2014 NBA Draft while being underclassmen with two more years available to play at the University of Michigan. Just imagine the team Michigan would have if these three players stayed and Utah Jazz starting point guard Trey Burke (9th overall pick in 2013 NBA Draft) who would be a Senior this season stayed as well. Now that team would have gone undefeated and would have challeneged Kentucky this season. Even though the best players from the Michigan's program has left the last two years, the Wolverines still have a good trio of guards in Zak Irvin (SO, 15.3 PPG & 3.6 RPG), Caris LeVert (JR, 14.9 PPG, 5.4 RPG, & 3.9 APG), and Derrick Walton Jr. (SO, 11.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.7 APG). The season started off very well for Michigan, like their opponent on this afternoon, as they also had an undefeated showdown but against then twelfth ranked 4-0 Villanova in the Championship of the Legends Classic. The game was back and forth but basically Villanova's Senior forward JayVaughn Pinkston was the difference as he had the go-ahead basket and game saving block in the final moments of the game that propelled the Wildcats to a 60-55 win over the Wolverines. After the loss, Michigan bounced back and defeated the Syracuse Orange in their ACC/Big 10 Challenge matchup on a Spike Albrecht (JR) three pointer with about half a minute remaining in the game. Michigan was rolling out wins when diaster struck in the form of N.J.I.T. The New Jersey Institute of Technology is an independent school that will probably never make an NCAA Tournament but on December 6, they faced their first ranked opponent since they moved to Division I since Michigan was ranked seventeenth at the time. Easy win for the Wolverines right? WRONG! N.J.I.T. ended up hitting eleven three pointer and shooting 58.7% from the field to get the 72-70 win. Well that was bad news for Michigan but do you know what is worse? A loss to Eastern Michigan at home in the Crisler Center after a loss at home to N.J.I.T. The back to back losses led the Wolverines into a matchup in Tuscon against the number three ranked Arizona Wildcats...Loss. Then the next weekend, Michigan lost at home again to Larry Brown's SMU squad. So coming into today's matchup Michigan is 1-4 in their last five games.
My key of the game for Illinois is to dominate the Michigan guards offensively and specifically that will come from Senior Rayvonte Rice. Rice will be the best player on the floor this afternoon and I believe that if he keeps on playing like he has been, he will be able to score the ball at will on the Michigan guards. Also the Fighting Illini must shoot a good percentage as a team because if not, and the stats show it, they will lose this game. For the Wolverines, the key is to play solid defense on the whole Illinois offense and to defend the three point line since the Fighting Illini shoot 37.7% from downtown. Specifically Michigan needs to always keep an eye on Rice, Hill, and Nunn because these three players each shoot over 40% from beyond the arc.
One on One
My matchup to watch is not only one on one but three on three betwen Illinois' guard mixture of Rayvonte Rice (SR), Kendrick Nunn (SO), and Malcom Hill (SO) versus Michigan's Caris LeVert (JR), Zak Irvin (SO), and Derrick Walton Jr. (SO). Both sets of guards score and rebound the ball very well but Michigan does have the advantage when it comes to assists and Illinois has the advantage when it comes to efficient shooting from the field, free throw line, and three point line. Really, we can nit-pick these stats all we want but whichever trio scores the most points will most likely win the game.
---Illinois 69, Michigan 65
PW's College Basketball Prediction Record: 29-16
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