Sunday, November 23, 2014

PW's NFL Week 12 Predictions

By Peyton Wesner

Compared to last week there are not many marque matchups but I must say there are the possibility for some upsets in today's games. I mean who would have thought the Raiders would have beat the Chiefs Thursday night? PapĂ­ from "Highly Questionable" that's who!

1:00 PM EST-CBS
6-4 Cleveland Browns 
at 4-6 Atlanta Falcons
The NFC South Division leader hosts the last place team in the AFC North today at the Georgia Dome. Isn't it kinda weird that the team with two more wins will most likely not make the playoffs when the team who is under .500 has a legitimate chance? I would say yes. Cleveland's Josh Gordon has been reinstated from his ten game suspension and provides an additional target for Brian Hoyer to go downfield to. Last week the Browns were dominated at home by J.J. Watt and the Houston Texans while their opponent the Atlanta Falcons won a close one to jump on top in their division against the Carolina Panthers in Charlotte. No one really knows what Browns' team will show up this afternoon nor what Falcons' team as both are very inconsistent in performances this season. Cleveland didn't have many targets to throw to before Gordon's reinstatement and Coach Pettine has stated that the Pro Bowl wide receiver will only get 20-30 snaps today. With Jordan Cameron out again with a concussion, I feel that the Falcons' defense will key on Gordon when he is in, ultimately shutting him down. For Atlanta, playing at the Dome is a significant advantage but Matt Ryan has a bad habit of throwing interceptions at the wrong time.  If Cleveland's defense plays a good game, this one could be a barn-burner.
---Atlanta 24, Cleveland 13

1:00 PM EST-CBS
2-8 Tennessee Titans
at 7-3 Philadelphia Eagles
It's the battle of the backups at Lincoln Financial Field today as both week one quarterbacks for Tennessee (Jake Locker) and Philadelphia (Nick Foles) are hurt. Although Tennessee's Rookie quarterback Zach Mettenburger has lost all three of his starts so far in his young career he has done a pretty good job overall. In his three starts he has averaged a solid 247 yards per game while throwing 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Someone who will give Mettenburger an extra target for the rest of the season is Delanie Walker as he is set to return from a concusion suffered in Baltimore on November 9. For Philadelphia, Mark Sanchez has thrown two touchdowns in each of his three game he has played. But with those touchdowns has come interceptions as last week against Green Bay and the week Foles was initially hurt against Houston he threw two INTs to go with the touchdowns. With a balanced offense that features the running duo of McCoy and Sproles, the Eagles will destroy the Titans and put pressure on the Cowboys in the NFC East.
---Philadelphia 38, Tennessee 13

1:00 PM EST-FOX
7-3 Detroit Lions 
at 8-2 New England Patroits
The best game of the 1:00 PM Eastern starts is being played in Foxborough as Matthew Stafford and Megatron lead the Detroit Lions into Gillette Stadium, where the Patroits have not lost a game since Week 15 of the 2012 NFL Season. Detroit lost a close defensive game last week in Arizona as the offense never really got it going. To win today, Detroit's offense needs to score a lot of points. Now New England went into Lucas Oil Stadium last week and totally destroyed the AFC South Division Leader, Indianapolis Colts, 42-20. Brady had two touchdowns and two interceptions but the player that really stole the show was Jonas Gray. Gray ran for 201 yards on 37 carries with 4 touchdowns as Brady got him involved early and often. These day one can't really pick against New England without looking stupid, so I believe that Brady will destroy the Lions defense and make Suh look like a fool.
---New England 27, Detroit 17

1:00 PM EST-FOX
7-3 Green Bay Packers
at 4-6 Minnesota Vikings
R-E-L-A-X..."RELAX" is the best sound bite of the year in the NFL. Since the Packers 1-2 start this season, Green Bay has gone 6-1 with their only lose coming to the New Orleans Saints at the Superdome. Aaron Rodgers is having another phenomenal season as he has 28 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. Another impressive number for Rodgers is that he has yet to throw an interception in the month of November while he has thrown 9 touchdowns. I think the Vikings having four wins in their first ten games is a surprise to most. Another surprise is to see Teddy Bridgewater get the amount of playing time he has received so far in his rookie season. Bridgewater has struggled to say the least but has shown some signs of being the long term option for the Vikings going forward. The Packers offense is too good not to blow out the Vikings today at TCF Bank Stadium with the threats of Cobb, Nelson, Lacy, and "that baaaaadddd man" as Stephen A. Smith would say in Aaron Rodgers.
---Green Bay 41, Minnesota 10

1:00 PM EST-CBS
1-9 Jacksonville Jaguars 
at 6-4 Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts had a lot of wind taken out of their sail last week when Tom Brady and the Brady Bunch came into Indy and beat the Colts badly. Today's game starts the easy part in the Colts schedule as after today they face Washington at home, Cleveland on the road, Houston at home, Dallas on the road, and Tennessee on the road to end the season. All are very winnable games, but Dallas on the road will be a challenge as the Cowboys are rolling this season but one man is an advantage for Indianapolis...Andrew Luck. Luck has had another great season as he has already more touchdowns this season than his total in each of the last two seasons (28 this season, 23 in 2012 & 2013). The Blake Bortles era started this season in DuVal and the home grown product has been good to start his career. Despite the interception problem, Bortles has been good throwing the ball since he has almost no options to throw to. With Allen Robinson out for the season, the Colts will blitz and put much pressure on Bortles, which will ultimatley  cause interceptions. Also Luck will rebound from a tough game last week to tear up the Jags' defense. 
---Indianapolis 34, Jacksonville 20

1:00 PM EST-CBS
6-3-1 Cincinnati Bengals
at 5-5 Houston Texans
This game has the potential to be a very low scoring affair because of the quality of both teams defense. The Bengals pulled off a very good win in the Superdome last week as their defense held the Saints to 10 points not in one half but the WHOLE GAME. Also, Andy Dalton had his best game of the season in one of the most hostile environments in the National Football League. Dalton was 16/22 for 220 yards and 3 touchdowns. Dalton is hated by many Cincinnatians because of his lack of success in the playoffs but he is the long term option in the Queen City. I don't think anyone predicted the Houston Texans to play this well this season. The Texans started off 3-1 but soon the loses started coming as they lost three straight to the Cowboys, Colts, and Steelers but each were single score defeats. The defense has been the star of the Houston Texans this season led by MVP Canidate J.J. Watt. Watt has been making a difference on both sides of the ball as he has caught touchdowns as a tight end in the red zone while forcing fumbles on the defensive side of the ball. Watt has truly been the leader on a great Texans defense that could pull off the upset today against the AFC North leading Cincinnati Bengals. Also with Ryan Mallet taking the starting quarterback job from Ryan Fitzpatrick, maybe fresh blood is exactly what Houston needs to take the AFC South from Indianapolis.
---Cincinnati 24, Houston 21

1:00 PM EST-FOX
2-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
at 4-6 Chicago Bears
The Josh McCown bowl as it should be called is this afternoon as McCown returns to Chicago, a team that he led to wins when Jay Cutler was hurt last season. Tampa Bay is coming in on a one game winning streak as they went into Washington and beat RG3's Redskins. The Bears also were back in the win column as they beat Minnesota in a close 21-13 victory. Although there is small chance of the Bears making the playoffs, this game is very important in my eyes for Jay Cutler individually. If the Bears get beat by former quarterback Josh McCown, the fans will be mad that management kept Cutler over McCown. Since it is at Soldier Field, Chicago should win but Tampa Bay will fight hard.
---Chicago 24, Tampa Bay 20

4:05 PM EST-FOX
9-1 Arizona Cardinals 
at 6-4 Seattle Seahawks
Arizona has one of the toughest schedules going down the stretch as they must play Seattle twice, @ San Francisco, and at home against Kansas City. The loss of Carson Palmer is significant as no one really knows if Drew Stanton can put enough points on the board. Arizona's defense is really good but defense can only take a team so far. Last week in Stanton's first game after Carson Palmer's season ending injury the Cardinals only scored 14 points but their defense held Stafford and the Lions to 6 points getting the win. Seattle has yet to show the dominance they had last season as the Seahawks have lost @ St. Louis, @ San Diego, and @ Kansas City. They even lost to the Dallas Cowboys at home!  To add onto the losses, there has been much speculation of locker room turmoil. First Percy Havin was said to be the problem, then Russell Wilson, and now Marshawn Lynch. What is really going on in Seattle? Only the players know. On top of the drama, Russell Wilson has struggled in multiple games this season and the defense is getting torn to shreads by the opposition's passing game. Today in Seattle I figure the Seahawks will win as without Palmer, Arizona's offense will struggle. The defense that causes the most turnovers will win the game. If Arizona loses today they must win in a few weeks against Seattle in Phoenix if they want any chance to win the NFC West for the first time since 2009.  
---Seattle 31, Arizona 14

4:05 PM EST-FOX
4-6 St. Louis Rams at 6-4 San Diego Chargers
After Week 6, the Chargers looked like a lock to make the playoffs then three straight losses occurred including a 37-0 shutout against the Miami Dolphins. Last week, the Chargers won 13-6 against the Oakland Raiders who going in had not won a game. In the game last Sunday, San Diego's offense struggled to put points on the board. Now facing the Rams who have nothing but defense, San Diego will be challenged to put points on the board. On top of going against the Rams' D, Quarterback Phillip Rivers is dealing with a chest injury. If he is limited in mobility the Rams will feast on Rivers like they did against Peyton Manning last week in the upset of the season. For St. Louis, Austin Davis is no longer the quarterback as Jeff Fisher has given the starting job back to veteran Shaun Hill. The matchup of the game has got to be the Chargers offense versus the Rams defense. If the Rams keep the San Diego from advancing the ball downfield like Denver last week, it could be a long afternoon in Southern California for the Chargers.
---San Diego 17, St. Louis 14

4:25 PM EST-CBS
3-7 Washington Redskins
at 6-4 San Francisco 49ers
At this point I don't think there is any doubt that San Francisco will win but will RG3 get benched? Robert Griffin III is back from his ankle injury but has continued his struggles from last season. Griffin III has played two games since he recovered and has played terrible in winnable games against Minnesota and Tampa Bay. Rumor is that if Griffin III plays bad this afternoon he will be benched for Colt McCoy, the hero of the Monday Night Football game in Dallas. While Washington's season is headed to the tank, things are beginning to look up for San Francisco as last week Aldon Smith was reinstated from his nine-game suspension. The 49ers are in a tough NFC West Division and need to continue winning to have a chance to make it into the playoffs. San Francisco's defense will rough up Griffin III in a total rout at Levi's Stadium.
---San Francisco 27, Washington 10

4:25 PM EST-CBS
6-4 Miami Dolphins
at 7-3 Denver Broncos
Miami is definatly not the team the Denver Broncos want to play with their current offensive line trouble. The Miami Dolphins are having a good season and are in the chase for a AFC Wildcard spot. With a few extra days of rest and preparation since they played on Thursday Night Football on Week 11 against the Buffalo Bills, the Miami Dolphins have a real shot to give Denver their second straight loss. Tannehill has had a very good season for Miami as he is on pace to have career highs in touchdowns and passing yards. Also, that one guy who is the quarterback on Denver is also having another good season. Peyton Manning already has 30 touchdowns this season on 3,301 passing yards. But we must remember for Manning to be great, his offensive line must stop the defense's inside pressure and give him time in the pocket to throw. My two key matchups of the game is Denver's offensive line against the front four of the Miami Dolphins and the Dolphins offense versus Denver's defense.
---Denver 31, Miami 27

8:30 PM EST-NBC
7-3 Dallas Cowboys
at 3-7 New York Giants
Is anyone still waiting for the Cowboys to start losing and end up missing the playoffs again this year? Well for all you Cowboy haters out there it could happen.  After the Cowboys last meeting with the Giants, Dallas was 6-1 and claimed by many to be the best team in the NFL, then disaster struck. Tony Romo hurt his back and then tried to enter back into the Monday Night Football game against Washington just for the Cowboys to end up getting beaten anyway. Then he missed a crucial matchup in a battle of six win teams against the Arizona Cardinals in Dallas. Brandon Weeden made the start for Romo as the Cowboys would lose the game 28-17. The next week Dallas played in London against the Jacksonville Jaguars and won 31-17. So are the Cowboys a real contender or not? We could find out tonight as they travel to East Rutherford, New Jersey to take on the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. It is pretty clear cut that the Giants will not make the playoffs but a win tonight against their hated rival would give the Giants and their fans something to celebrate as a win would help them stave of getting swept this season by Dallas. The way the Giants schedule sets up, a win tonight could possibly help them achieve .500 for the season as their schedule has winnable games coming up. The key of the game is to stop DeMarco Murray if you are a Giants fan. If the Giants defense can hold him under one hundred yards, they will have a legitimate chance to win. The key for the Cowboys is put pressure on the Giants' defense by feeding the ball to Murray and then use play action fakes to advance to ball down field via the pass. It should be a great game tonight unless Eli Manning starts turning the ball over, which brings me to my last key of the game: Eli Manning cannot turn over the ball two times if the Giants want to win. If he does, that is two more extra possessions for the Cowboys offense to punch the ball in for points.
---Dallas 30, New York 24

7:00 PM EST-CBS
2-8 New York Jets
at 5-5 Buffalo Bills
The weather in Buffalo is frightful right now as the city is covered by 7 feet of snow causing the game to be moved from the winter wonderland of Buffalo, New York to Ford Field home of the Detroit Lions. Currently the Bills are 5-5 and fighting for a .500 season for the first time since 2004. Buffalo started off hot this season with two big wins against the Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins. Then all of a sudden with a record of 5-3, Buffalo lost a close game at home against Kansas City and another game at Miami dropping them back to .500 for the season. Last season the New York Jets, somehow, under rookie quarterback Geno Smith, achieved a record of 8-8 and this year was expected to be better as the players and Rex Ryan talked up the chances of them being a playoff team. That didn't happen and won't as going into Week 12, the Jets have won only two games, one against the Raiders in Week 1, and another in their last game against the Steelers. Both teams have had quarterbacks issues. For Buffalo, E.J. Manuel struggled after the first two games and ended up getting benched for Kyle Orton, who in his first start beat the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. For the Jets, Geno Smith is playing worse than last year, something no one even thought was possible. Smith has 7 touchdowns to his 10 interceptions and 6 fumbles, a terrible statline to say the least. Now Michael Vick is in who has been great at times in his career. In Week 10, the Jets last game, Vick led New York to an upset win over the Pittsburgh Steelers who was coming in hot. Can Vick do it again tonight in Detroit against a Bills team with a good defense or will he turn over the ball like he has done in the past? I guess we will have to wait and see.
---Buffalo 24, New York 16

8:30 PM EST-ESPN
6-4 Baltimore Ravens 
at 4-6 New Orleans Saints
The second AFC North vs. NFC South matchup of the week occurs on Monday Night Football between the Baltimore Ravens and the New Orleans Saints. The Ravens have been very good this season despite missing three time Pro Bowl running back Ray Rice for the whole season. Now with a 6-4 record you would think Baltimore is close to the top of the AFC, right...WRONG! Baltimore needs a win tomorrow night to ensure not being down at least a game in their division. New Orleans is in the opposite situation as even with a 4-6 record they have a chance to win their division and receive a playoff birth as well as a home playoff game. The problem is that this New Orleans team is not as good as the team from the 2009 Super Bowl run or last year's team who winded up winning 11 games. Yes, New Orleans still has Drew Brees but the Saints' defense is costing the team wins this season under Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan. New Orleans' opponents average 25.2 points per game, which is 22nd worst in the NFL. Also, there is a bit of history for the Baltimore tomorrow evening as Joe Flacco and some other Ravens return to the site that the Baltimore Ravens won the Super Bowl against Colin Kaepernick and the San Francisco 49ers, 21 months ago. My key matchup of the game is Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense versus Rob Ryan's defense. We all know that with Drew Brees at the helm, New Orleans can score points but can Flacco match Brees and his offense. To close, last week when the Bengals beat the Saints that was the first time since 2012 that New Orleans had lost back-to-back games at the Superdome. I don't imagine they will lose a third in a row.
---New Orleans 34, Baltimore 30


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