Friday, April 3, 2015

PW's NCAA Tournament Final Four Special

By Peyton Wesner

There were 3.6 seconds left and Duke's Brian Zoubek was at the free throw line with the Blue Devils up two points. The first attempt from the big man was made with ease, but the second led to one of the most lasting images in Final Four history. Clank! Butler forward and current Utah Jazz star grabs the rebound. At 2.6 seconds, Hayward pivots and starts dribbling towards his basket. Then with the clock at 1.1 seconds, Butler center Matt Howard screens Duke forward Kyle Singler giving Hayward an open look at the basket from half court. With 0.2 seconds, Hayward heaves a potential game-winning shot with the chance to be a part of one of the biggest upsets in NCAA Tournament history. The ball soared through the air while looking on target, hit the backboard, tapped off the front rim and fell harmlessly to the floor. Duke's 2010 National Championship along with Hayward's missed attempt was the last moments in a Final Four game in Indianapolis. Will there be another memorable moment this weekend in Lucas Oil Stadium?

6:09 PM EST-TBS
27-11 (12-6) #7 Michigan State
33-4 (15-3) #1 Duke
(At Lucas Oil Stadium In Indianapolis)

27-11 (12-6) #7 Michigan State
Good Wins:
-Indiana 70-50 (Home)
-Iowa 75-61 (Road)
-#23 Ohio State 59-56 (Home)
-Purdue 72-66 (Home)
-Indiana 72-66 (Home)
-Ohio State 76-67 in Quarterfinal of Big Ten Tournament (in Chicago).
-#8 Maryland 62-58 in Semi-Final of Big Ten Tournament (in Chicago)
Questionable Losses:
-Texas Southern 71-64 in Overtime (Home)
-Nebraska 79-77 (Road)
-Illinois 59-54 (Home)
-Minnesota 96-90 in Overtime (Home)
NCAA Tournament Run:
-#10 Georgia 70-63 in Round of 64 (in Charlotte).
-#2 Virginia 60-54 in Round of 32 (in Charlotte).
-#3 Oklahoma 62-58 in Sweet Sixteen (in Syracuse).
-#4 Louisville 76-70 in Elite Eight (in Syracuse).
Key Contributors:
---#20 Travis Trice (SR)
-15.3 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 5.1 APG, & 1.1 SPG.
---#45 Denzel Valentine (JR)
-14.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG, & 4.4 APG.
---#22 Branden Dawson (SR)
-11.9 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.2 SPG, & 1.7 BPG.
---#5 Bryn Forbes (JR)
-8.7 PPG.
---#10 Matt Costello (JR)
-7.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG, & 1.2 BPG.
---#34 Gavin Schiling (SO)
-5.2 PPG & 3.9 RPG.

33-4 (15-3) #1 Duke
Great Wins:
-#19 Michigan State 81-71 (Home)
-#2 Wisconsin 80-70 (Road)
-#6 Louisville 63-62 (Road)
-#2 Virginia 69-63 (Road)
-#10 Notre Dame 90-60 (Home)
-#15 North Carolina 92-90 in Overtime (Home)
-#19 North Carolina 84-77 (Road)
-NC State 77-53 in Quarterfinal of ACC Tournament (in Greensboro)
Losses:
-NC State 87-75 (Road)
-Miami (FL) 90-74 (Home)
-#8 Notre Dame 77-73 (Road)
-#11 Notre Dame 74-64 in Semi-Final of ACC Tournament (in Greensboro)
NCAA Tournament Run:
-#16 Robert Morris 85-56 in Round of 64 (in Charlotte).
-#8 San Diego State 68-49 in Round of 32 (in Charlotte).
-#5 Utah 63-57 in Sweet Sixteen (in Houston).
-#2 Gonzaga 66-52 in Elite Eight (in Houston).
Key Contributors:
---#15 Jahlil Okafor (FR)
-17.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG, & 1.4 BPG.
---#2 Quinn Cook (SR)
-15.5 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.7 APG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#12 Justise Winslow (FR)
-12.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 2.1 APG, & 1.3 SPG.
---#5 Tyus Jones (FR)
-11.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 5.7 APG, & 1.5 SPG.
---#14 Rasheed Sulaimon (JR)
(Dismissed from team on January 29 for sexual assault allegation.)
-7.5 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 1.8 APG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#21 Amile Jefferson (JR)
-6.4 PPG & 5.7 RPG.
---#13 Matt Jones (SO)
-6.1 PPG & 2.3 RPG.

The one matchup that did not occur in the 2010 Final Four will finally happen tomorrow, but there is no Nolan Smith or Jon Scheyer playing for the Blue Devils or Durrell Summers suiting up for the Spartans. Really though, it is very impressive that these two teams made it back to the Final Four in the same city as before. 

The Michigan State Spartans are considered by many to be this year's UConn, but unlike the 2014 Huskies, the Spartans will be required to defeat two number one seeds to be crowned champion. Tom Izzo's team has been no stranger to defeating ACC teams in the last month as they have defeated the first (Virginia) and fourth (Louisville) best teams in the top conference this season. A plethora of experience has pushed the team through the tournament with the bulk of the production coming from Seniors Travis Trice and Branden Dawson and Junior Denzel Valentine. Trice has been phenomenal of late as he has taken over as the primary scorer for Michigan State by averaging 19.8 points per game in his last four while Valentine has brought a solid second option on the perimeter by bucketing 13.3 per game. On the block, Dawson has filled the stat sheet in the "the Big Dance" with two games of over ten points, two of eleven rebounds, and two of four blocks! Dawson must be a factor when facing the next opponent that finished second in regular season standings in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

I am not sure what is more spectacular, Duke making it to the second straight Final Four being played in "The House that Peyton Manning Built" or that the Blue Devils made it this far with three Freshmen starting rather than their veteran lineup full of Juniors and Seniors. The storied university from Durham, North Carolina, has been in the opposite situation as their opponent since they have defeated every team in the NCAA Tournament besides Utah by double-digit points. Interestingly enough, possible number one selection in the 2015 NBA Draft Jahlil Okafor was not the player who led the way for Coach K's group from the Sweet Sixteen to the Final Four. In fact it was the other two young studs, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones, who came in clutch for the Blue Devils when needed. In the Sweet Sixteen, Winslow stepped-up his performance by posting twenty-one points and ten rebounds against the Utes while in the Elite Eight Jones added fifteen points and six assists to move Duke into the Final Four. What did Okafor do against Utah and Gonzaga? The highly sought afterprospect scored a total of fifteen points...not in one game, but both!

Keys to Advancement for #7 Michigan State:
-Keep the score under seventy.
-Rattle Duke's Freshmen allowing for the experience within the Spartans to play a significant role.
-Get Branden Dawson involved against Okafor and run the offense through him and Trice.

Keys to Advancement for #1 Duke:
-Play four guards around Okafor in the post to allow for facilitation from the paint to open shooters for easy three pointers.
-Limit Travis Trice's scoring production.
-Play "Duke Basketball" and do not let the magnitude of the moment change the identity of the group.

Prediction:
Jahlil Okafor will shine on the biggest stage with a near double-double performance and get Branden Dawson in foul trouble early ultimately limiting the Spartans' Senior's floor time and production. Michigan State's Travis Trice will continue his hot shooting by posting at least seventeen points, but his positive effect will be neutralized as Quinn Cook will score almost as much. The difference makers in this semi-final will be none other than Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones as I see the two Freshmen outperforming Denzel Valentine and Bryn Forbes on the offensive end where Michigan State is not as naturally gifted. 
---#1 Duke 71, #7 Michigan State 63

8:49 PM EST-TBS
35-3 (16-2) #1 Wisconsin
38-0 (18-0) #1 Kentucky
(At Lucas Oil Stadium In Indianapolis)

35-3 (16-2) #1 Wisconsin
---Big Ten Regular Season Champions
Great Wins:
-Georgetown 68-65 in Semi-Final of Battle 4 Atlantis.
-Oklahoma 69-56 in Championship of Battle 4 Atlantis.
-#25 Iowa 82-50 (Home)
-Michigan State 68-61 (Home)
-#23 Ohio State 72-48 (Road)
-Michigan State 80-69 in Overtime in Big Ten Championship (in Chicago)
Losses:
-#4 Duke 80-70 in ACC/Big 10 Challenge (Home)
-Rutgers 67-62 (Road)
-#14 Maryland 59-53 (Road)
NCAA Tournament Run:
-#16 Coastal Carolina 86-72 in Round of 64 (in Omaha)
-#8 Oregon 72-65 in Round of 32 (in Omaha)
-#4 North Carolina 79-72 in Sweet Sixteen (in Los Angeles)
-#2 Arizona 85-78 in Elite Eight (in Los Angeles)
Key Contributors:
---#44 Frank Kaminsky (SR) 
-18.7 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.7 APG, & 1.5 BPG.
---#15 Sam Dekker (JR) 
-13.9 PPG & 5.5 RPG.
---#10 Nigel Hayes (SO) 
-12.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG, & 2.0 APG.
---#12 Traevon Jackson (SR)
(Played first game since suffering foot injury against #4 North Carolina.)
-8.6 PPG, 2.6 APG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#24 Bronson Koenig (SO)
-8.6 PPG, 1.7 RPG, & 2.4 RPG.
---#21 Josh Gasser (SR) 
-6.9 PPG, 3.4 RPG, & 1.8 APG.
---#13 Duje Dukan (SR)
-4.8 PPG & 2.6 RPG.

38-0 (18-0) #1 Kentucky
---SEC Regular Season Champions
---SEC Tournament Champions
Great Wins:
-#5 Kansas 72-40 in Champions Classic (in Indianapolis)
-#6 Texas 63-51 (Home)
-#21 North Carolina (Home)
-UCLA 83-44 in CBS Classic (in Chicago)
-#4 Louisville 58-50 (Road)
-#18 Arkansas 84-67 (Home)
-#21 Arkansas 78-63 in SEC Tournament Championship (in Nashville)
NCAA Tournament Run:
-#16 Hampton 79-56 in Round of 64 (in Louisville)
-#8 Cincinnati 64-51 in Round of 32 (in Louisville)
-#5 West Virginia 78-39 in Sweet Sixteen (in Cleveland)
-#3 Notre Dame 68-66 in Elite Eight (in Cleveland)
Key Contributors:
---#2 Aaron Harrison (SO)
-11.0 PPG, 2.6 RPG, & 1.3 SPG.
---#1 Devin Booker (FR)
-10.1 PPG & 2.0 RPG.
---#12 Karl-Anthony Towns (FR)
-10.1 PPG, 6.6 RPG, & 2.2 BPG.
---#5 Andrew Harrison (SO)
-9.2 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 3.6 APG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#15 Willie Cauley-Stein (JR)
-9.1 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.7 BPG, & 1.2 SPG.
---#41 Trey Lyles (FR)
-8.7 PPG & 5.4 RPG.
---#44 Dakari Johnson (SO)
-6.5 PPG & 4.7 RPG.
---#3 Tyler Ulis (FR)
-5.6 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 3.7 APG, & 1.0 SPG.

38-0 with the chance to go 40-0 and become the first team to complete a perfect regular season since Bob Knight's 1975-1976 Indiana Hoosiers. It’s only fitting that it would happen in no other state than Indiana! That is what the Kentucky Wildcats are playing for this weekend.

A year ago tomorrow, these two teams faced off for the opportunity to play for a National Championship against seventh seeded Connecticut. For those of you that don't know or have forgotten the result of the game, allow me to refresh your memory.

With under thirty seconds left, the Badgers were scrambling to find a clear look at the rim as the shot clock dwindled under ten. Sam Dekker, who has been arguably the best player on the hardwood for Bo Ryan's team since the Big Ten Championship against Michigan State a few weeks ago, passed the ball to then Junior, now Senior, Traevon Jackson. The point guard dribbled in the direction of the free throw line and performed a step-back move, which caused his defender Kentucky's Andrew Harrison to become off-balanced. Jackson then pump-faked getting Harrison to jump into the air and then went into the body of the young Kentucky guard drawing the shooting foul with 16.4 seconds remaining in regulation. After an official review to confirm it was a three-shot foul by Harrison, Jackson stepped to the line to attempt his first free throw with the score tied at 71. It rattled out. Wisconsin's Jackson would make the next two, but the door was now open for the Wildcats to take the lead on a made three-pointer. Kentucky brought the ball up court with the shot clock null for the remainder. The ball was driven down the lane by Andrew Harrison, who then dropped a pass down to fellow Freshman Dakari Johnson. Johnson with his back to the basket, then kicked the ball back out to Andrew Harrison in the corner. Andrew Harrison next showed some brotherly love by passing the ball to Aaron Harrison, who canned a trey in a defender's eye to give Kentucky a one-point lead with 5.7 tics left. The Kentucky faithful was going crazy, but the game wasn't over yet! Wisconsin would have a chance to answer. The ball was inbounded to Badgers' point guard Traevon Jackson and he rushed the ball downcourt until he pulled up from two feet inside the three point line on the left side of the basket. Jackson's potential game-winning shot looked on line to bank in, but was just a tat off the mark causing the Wildcats to prowl into the Championship Game. Will the same outcome occur in 2015?

Keys to Advancement for #1 Wisconsin:
-Win four minute segments before trying to win the forty minute game.
-Stretch the offensive side of the floor with Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker, so Kentucky's rim protectors like Willie Cauley-Stein, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Dakari Johnson must go outside the paint to play defense.
-Limit offensive errors specifically turnovers and defensive mistakes such as offensive rebound opportunities for Kentucky. 

Keys to Advancement for #1 Kentucky:
-Use the "Blue and White" platoons early and often to test the stamina and mental endurance of Wisconsin's starters.
-Control the tempo and push the ball in transition.
-Play with the same confidence as the first thirty-eight games and never allow the thought of defeat cross mind.

Prediction:
As the first semi-final of the 2015 Final Four, Kentucky versus Wisconsin will be another battle of experience versus youth that the Big Ten along with the Juniors and Seniors will lose. Karl-Anthony Towns, who is jockeying with Okafor for the right to be the first overall pick in the 2015 NBA Draft, will come out with motivation to outplay the fellow Freshman and have a great game. Despite myself picking the Wildcats, I do foresee the match being close. Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker will combine for thirty-seven plus points, but it will not be enough as I see Nigel Hayes struggling against the opposition's length and athleticism. Bluntly, my pick is sealed with conviction due to the excess of talent Kentucky has compared to the Badgers.
---#1 Kentucky 65, #1 Wisconsin 64

PW's NCAA Tournament Pick'em Record (Since Sweet Sixteen): 9-3

PW's Postseason Pick'em Record: 17-4

PW's Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Prediction Record: 8-1

PW's Regular Season Prediction Record: 205-70 (81-18 in the MVC)


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