Saturday, November 29, 2014

Orlando Classic Predictions (Day 3)

By Peyton Wesner

ORLANDO---It's always sad for an Orlando basketball fan when the Orlando Classic raps up on the Sunday after Thanksgiving but there is a positive about tomorrow: we get to watch four more great matchups.

10:30 AM EST-ESPN3
7th Place Game
2-4 Santa Clara Broncos
2-4 Rider Broncos
To watch the "Battle of the Broncos", fans will have to get up really early on Sunday. Santa Clara's second half struggles have been well documented in the tournament as in both matchups, against Tennessee and Rhode Island, they stayed with their opponent in the first half but could not score effectively and enough in the second. After being blown out by 27 points before the tournament began against Kansas and 32 points on Day 1 against Michigan State, Rider was tied with Georgia Tech at halftime. Eventually the Yellow Jackets pulled away from the Broncos (Rider) putting Rider in the 7th place game Sunday. Only one team will head home with the horrible experience of losing all three of their games during this great weekend. My key of the game for Santa Clara is to continue to direct Brandon Clark (SR) and Jared Brownridge (SO) the task of scoring the ball. So far Brandon Clark has had no trouble scoring the ball as he is averaging 17.5 points a game in "The Classic" but his friend and teammate Jared Brownridge has struggled. Although Brownridge had a solid twelve point performance Thursday, yesterday he went two for seven from the field for a total of seven points. Brownridge must become the player last year that scored 17.2 points per game if Santa Clara does not want to drop to 0-3 at Disney's Wide World of Sports. For Rider, my key of the game is to turn the 48 minutes into a low possession, "grind it out", defensive battle. Rider really opened my eyes yesterday by holding GTech to 37.9% shooting from the field and 2 of 15 from beyond the arc. If they play the great game defensively that they did yesterday, the Broncos (Rider) will be at least within striking distance for the win. The problem with Rider is not their defense though, it is there offense. The Englishman, Teddy Okereafor (JR) will have to score over his average of 11.2 points a game. I personally believe he needs to put up 17+ to provide the one man offense Rider a win
---Santa Clara 59, Rider 52

6:30 PM EST-ESPNU
5th Place Game
4-1 Rhode Island Rams
4-1 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
I am very excited about this game, even more than the 3rd Place Game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Marquetter Golden Eagles. The Rams were back to their normal selves yesterday as they saddled up and defeated the Santa Clara Broncos by the score of 66-44 led by NBA-talent E.C. Matthews (SO) who had 19 points yesterday afternoon. While the Rams won easily, the Yellow Jackets were involved in a single-digit margin game against the Rider Broncos. Despite a tie at halftime score, Georgia Tech put away the pesky Broncos in route to a 61-54 victory. Both teams in this game have good, solid scorers but whatever defense plays better will win the game. My key of the game for Rhode Island is to put the ball in the hoop. The Rams have one of those teams this year, that I feel could score on any team. Although the loss on Thanksgiving, they did put up 60 points on a defensively sound Kansas team. The Rams scoring is centered around 6'5" Sophomore guard E.C. Matthews. Matthews is a great all-round player that can hit threes, take opponents of the dribble, as well as rebound the basketball very well. He showed his rebounding skills by achieving a double-double in Rhode Island's upset win against number 21. ranked Nebraska this season. For Georgia Tech, the Yellow Jackets need to shut down Matthews as the Rams' offense revolves around him. Also, GTech needs to maintain their balanced scoring between, Maryland transfer, Charles Mitchell (JR, 12 PPG), Marcus Georges-Hunt (JR, 11.2 PPG), Demarco Cox (SR, 11 PPG), and Quinton Stephens (SO, 10.8 PPG). If all members of the four man scoring crew scores double-digits tomorrow, Rhode Island may need to be prepared to accept their second defeat of the season
---Rhode Island 64, Georgia Tech, 63

4:00 PM EST-ESPN2
3rd Place Game
2-2 Tennessee Volunteers
3-3 Marquette Golden Eagles
This game could truly go either way, which is the kind of game that makes the people who make predictions mad. Both teams had to go up against ranked opponents yesterday and both lost. Tennessee had to go up against number 11. ranked Kansas in a game that Tennessee was not predicted to win. Fouls were the story of the game for the Volunteers. Tennessee was whistled 28 times for fouls causing both Freshman starters Willie Carmichael III and Jabari McGhee to play a combined 28 minutes while eventually both being disqualified in the second half. Also, star Senior Josh Richardson (17.5 PPG, 5 RPG, 1.8 APG) had four fouls as well as fellow starter Armani Moore (10.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.5 APG). Obviously stated is that foul calls really hurt Tennessee in their 82-67 defeat to the Jayhawks. The Golden Eagles had to face the number 20. ranked Michigan State Spartans yesterday. The first half was tight as the Spartans only possessed a one point lead but about halfway through the second half "Sparty" took advantage of the game by Denzel Valentine drilling two threes to increase the lead to 11 points. My key of the game for the Tennessee Volunteers is to contest shots from Carlino. Marquette's Matt Carlino had an Orlando Classic record 38 points on Thanksgiving against Georgia Tech but yesterday the Spartans held the sharp shooter to 4 of 13 shooting (2 of 6 from beyond the arc). That is what a team has to do to defeat the Golden Eagles. And if that stat line doesn't prove my theory. Carlino was 3 of 8 from the field and 2 if 7 from three point land in Marquette's home loss against the University of Nebraska-Omaha. My keys for Marquette are to shut down Tennessee's best player Josh Richardson (SR) and to go right at the Tennessee defenders and draw fouls. Even better for Marquette is if they get Richardson in foul trouble because if they do, Marquette will have a quality victory to go on their early season resumé.
---Tennessee 73, Marquette 66

1:00 PM EST-ESPN
Orlando Classic Championship Game
4-1 11. Kansas Jayhawks
5-1 20. Michigan State Spartans
Isn't it beautiful when a possible Sweet Sixteen matchup occurs in November giving the fans what they want rather than waiting until March. Merry Christmas College Basketball Fans! The last time the Kansas Jayhawks and Michigan State Spartans faces off it was November 13, 2012, at the Champions Classic in Atlanta, Georgi. The game was tight throughout as Michigan State had a 67-64 lead with 16 seconds left. Kansas had the ball and drew up a play for Senior Travis Releford to tie the game with a three pointer. He rose up and fired the shot, which was his first three point attempt of the game. Releford missed and the game was over, Michigan State won. That game featured four players on both sides that went to the NBA afterwards (KU's Ben McLemore and Jeff Withey, and MSU's Gary Harris and Adreian Payne). Amazingly there are still players that played in that game that will play tomorrow. Players that played included: Michigan State's Branden Dawson (SR) who started the game and scored 12 points, Michigan State's Denzel Valentine (JR), Kansas' Perry Ellis (JR) who started the game and scored 4 points, and Kansas' Jamari Taylor (JR) who filled up the stat sheet with 6 points, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, and 3 blocks. The next regular season Kansas/Michigan State game is set for November 17, 2015, at the United Center, home of the Chicago Bulls, as a part of the 2015 Champions Classic. But lets not get ahead of ourselves. Tomorrow's matchup was predicted at the beginning of the tournament by the best of analysts as well as the average basketball fan that can't name one player on either team. Kansas in my opinion had the toughest road to the Orlando Classic Championship as they had to face a good mid-major team in the Rhode Island Rams and a Sweet Sixteen team from last year in the Tennessee Volunteers. On Thursday afternoon, the Jayhawks squeezed the life out of the Rams by holding them to 36.5% from the field while keeping Rhode Island star E.C. Matthews from getting into a rhythm. Yesterday, Kansas played more of an offensive game as they defeated Tennessee 82-67. Also, it must not be forgotten that KU did an excellent job of keeping Tennessee's starters in foul trouble causing them to play timidly and non-aggressive when they were not siting on the bench. Michigan State had a different road to the Orlando Classic Championship. First the Spartans faced the MAAC team of the tournament this season the Rider Broncos. "Sparty" destroyed the Broncos 77-45. Next, the Spartans had to face the player who scored the most points in an Orlando Classic game, Matt Carlino. Carlino is a transfer senior from BYU now on the Marquette Golden Eagles. The first half was tight for the Spartans as they were only up one at the half but the second half was all "Sparty." The thing that really helped MSU secure the victory was holding Carlino to 4 of 13 shooting as he was Marquette's main scorer. So my analysis about tomorrow. It should be a great game for sure. My "1 on 1" matchup to watch is Kansas' Perry Ellis (JR) versus Michigan State's Branden Dawson (SR). These two players battled a few years ago in their team's last matchup and whoever plays the best individual game will get their team the win. Dawson has been recently coming off the bench after missing two games with the flu. In his last two games, Dawson has only scored 8 points, which is an amount he normally scores in one outing. I personally don't understand why Dawson is not being as aggressive on the offensive side of the ball than he was prior to his illness. My keys of the game for Kansas include shutting down Denzel Valentine (JR) and keep the scoring distribution even on their side of the ball. Valentine has increased his career high in points on both Day 1 and 2 with the his career high now standing at 25 points. Kansas must make sure Valentine does not have another career high performance tomorrow. Also, Kansas' "Big Four" (Cliff Alexander (FR), Perry Ellis (JR), Frank Mason III (SO), and Wayne Selden Jr. (SO)) all had over ten points in the game against Tennessee. Getting all the good players involved in the scoring is key for the Jayhawks. For Michigan State, keys of the game consist of making Kansas' young guards turnover the ball and contesting all Jayhawk shot attempts. Shown in the Kentucky/Kansas game in Indianapolis earlier in the year is the fact that pressure can get the Jayhawks youth "out of sorts" and that keeping the boys from Lawrence from scoring leads to wins. Kentucky held Kansas to 19.6% from the field. Obviously it is not realistic to think that a team will do that to a talented Kansas squad again but if Michigan State can hold Kansas to under 40%, they will have them right where they want them for a victory.
---Michigan State 75, Kansas 63

My Pick Record Coming into Today: 7-1

Orlando Classic All-Tourney Teams
All-Tourney Team
Denzel Valentine Michigan State JR
Matt Carlino Marquette SR
E.C. Matthews Rhode Island SO
Perry Ellis Kansas JR
Josh Richardson Tennessee SR

Most Outstanding Player:
Denzel Valentine Michigan State JR

It has been a fun time writing about the Orlando Classic in its ninth year over my Thanksgiving break. All of you that have enjoyed the action don't forget about next year as the teams playing in it include the Alabama Crimson Tide, the Dayton Flyers, the Iowa Hawkeyes, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, the USC Trojans, the Wichita State Shockers, the Xavier Musketeers, and the Monmouth Hawks (MAAC host school). Safe travels back from the tournament and God Bless.




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