Monday, December 1, 2014

PW's NCAA Football Predictions Week 15 with Championship Games

By Peyton Wesner

Thursday Night Football (December 4)
7:30 PM EST-ESPN
8-3 UCF
at 8-3 East Carolina
American Athletic Conference Game of the Week

The Knights have a "Shot in the Night" to win the American Athletic Conference for the second straight season. With a win tomorrow, UCF would clinch a co-championship with the 9-3 Memphis Tigers. The university from the heart of Orlando has had a good first season since the Blake Bortles era ended. Bortles, who was drafted by the Jacksonville Jaguars with the number three pick in the 2014 NFL Draft and is now the starting quarterback, forwent his Senior season leaving the reigns to Sophomore quarterback Justin Holman. Coming into tomorrow's game UCF is 8-3 with their only bad loss coming against 2-9 Connecticut in this year's upset of the season in AAC by the score of 37-29. If they would not have allowed the Huskies to beat them, UCF would have had a chance this Thursday to win the conference outright. Funny how upsets screw up good teams plans is it not? The Knights are led by a pair of Sophomore studs as quarterback Justin Holman, who I previously mentioned, and William Stanback. Holman has filled in fairly well for Bortles as he has thrown for 2,387 yards and 19 touchdowns this season while his back field mate, William Stanback, has ran for 558 yards and 8 touchdowns. East Carolina started off their season with a tough 33-23 loss to a ranked South Carolina in their second game of the year. Then they played hit the role of the upseter when they went into Blacksburg, Virginia, to beat, at the time, number 17. ranked. Virginia Tech, who the week before upset Ohio State in Columbus. Everything was going well for the Pirates, they were winning, getting national attention, and were ranked. Then, Temple happened. On November 1, Seniors Shane Carden, and Justin Hardy brought the Pirates into Philadelphia to face the Temple Owls. It was a battle of Temple's defense and East Carolina's offense from the start. Who would prevail? Surprisingly it was Temple's defense who stole the show by forcing five Pirate' fumbles and holding ECU to 10 points. The first of November, 2014, was the first victory over a ranked opponent for the Owls in 16 years. As a result of the game, East Carolina dropped out of the top 25 and their slim chance of making the College Football Playoffs evaporated. The following week, East Carolina lost a high-scoring affair at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati as the Bearcats behind Gunner Kiel (SO) led a last minute drive that resulted in a field goal to give Cincy the lead. A fumble returned for a touchdown at the end of the game put the icing on the cake for Cincy, who won 54-46. East Carolina's ship was officially taking on water. Tomorrow, the Pirates cannot win the American Athletic Conference but they can play spoiler and allow Memphis to own the championship all by themselves. It will be yet another battle of youth versus experience in Greenville, North Carolina. Will the young Knight be able to defeat ECU's seniors on Senior Night. Shane Carden has had another solid season in his final year as a Pirate despite throwing 8 less touchdowns than last year. There is no doubt that his performance throughout the season will receive him 1st Team All-AAC consideration with Cincinnati's Gunner Kiel. Tomorrow will also be Justin Hardy's last game at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, where he set the record for the most career receptions in bowl subdivision history on November 22 against Tulane. My matchup of the game is ECU's strong offense versus UCF's offense containing defense. East Carolina is averaging a  whopping 37.8 PPG...37.8 PPG! That is 14th most in the nation! Don't forget though, the Knights have the fifth best defense in the nation as they hold their opponents to an average of 16.8 PPG. Personally, I just don't believe the Knights offense can score enough points to win this game especially with all the advantages in the Pirates favor (Home-Field, Senior Night, and the best two players on the field.) I feel that Carden and Hardy will come out on a mission to win their last game at home. Although I am unsure about the success of my prediction, one thing is for sure about tomorrow night'a game...it will be a great one.
---East Carolina 27, UCF 17


Friday Night Football (December 5)
7:00 PM EST-ESPN2
10-2 Northern Illinois
7-5 Bowling Green
MAC Championship Game

Detroit is yet again the host of another non-Detroit Lions football game but this time it isn't the Buffalo Bills playing because of snow. Tonight is the Mid-American Conference Championship game and the two teams playing have a bit of history. This year's game is the fifth season in a row the Northern Illinois Huskies have been in the championship game of the conference. They won two consecutive championships in 2011 and 2012 but were surprisingly upset by tonight's opponent, the Bowling Green Falcons. NIU has a lot to be angry about because of last year's loss. To start the Huskies were ranked number fourteen in the BCS poll with a chance to have an undefeated record as they were going into the game 12-0. Also, the Huskies had everything to lose in the game and nothing to gain. If they would have won, NIU would have been 13-0 and most likely would have been invited to a BCS bowl game...that what was on the line. The game was 10-7 Bowling Green with 2:40 left in the first quarter when the momentum swung in favor of the Falcons. The next play for Bowling Green was a 36 yard touchdown from then Sophomore quarterback Matt Johnson. The score was 17-7 Bowling Green. 17-7 Bowling Green? This wasn't suppose to happen. Northern Illinois countered with two field goals but then the Falcons responded with back to back touchdowns to move the score from 17-13 BGSU to 31-13 going into the half. Northern Illinois' star quarterback, and Heisman-Candidate Jordan Lynch ran in a touchdown to begin the second half but once again the Falcons answered this time with seventeen unanswered points. Jordan Lynch led the last drive of the game for NIU to a touchdown as he ran it in with fourteen seconds left. The damage was already done and the Falcons were flying on. Bowling Green 47, Northern Illinois 27. The crowd was stunned, what just happened! Did Jordan Lynch really just get out shined by a Sophomore? Lynch struggled in the dome that Friday evening and ended up throwing for a touchdown and two interceptions while running for two scores. It was one of his worst outings of his spectacular 2013 season. While the Northern Illinois offense struggled to put up enough points to win, Matt Johnson and Bowling Green had not problem. Johnson threw for five touchdowns on 393 passing yards in his best game of last season by far. So tonight the teams rematch, but both quarterbacks from last season's game are not playing. Jordan Lynch graduated and is currently a running back in the NFL while Matt Johnson (JR) was suppose to have a great season this year but those plans were derailed in Bowling Green's Week 1 matchup against Western Kentucky. Johnson suffered a season-ending hip injury in the fourth quarter of the blowout loss for the Falcons. This season's matchup for the championship crown will contain two young guns as NIU's Drew Hare (SO) will face off against BGSU's James Knapke (SO). Both teams couldn't have ended their season more different. The Huskies of NIU have only lost two games this season, one against Arkansas of the SEC and another versus a MAC opponent, Central Michigan. Currently, Northern Illinois is coming in hotter than the desert sun in Phoenix as they have won their last six games including the division clincher on the road last weekend against a good Western Michigan team. Bowling Green started off their season with the loss previously mentioned against Western Kentucky. Then after a Week 2 win versus VMI, the Falcons achieved their signature win of the season against 2,000 yard rusher Tevin Coleman and his Indiana Hooisers. The team would later clinch their division in the MAC on November 12, rather than last week, with a 30-20 win against Kent State. Since their division clinching win the Falcons are on a two game skid. A fact that should be noted in favor of the Huskies is that they have played in the harder of the two divisions. In the MAC West, Toledo had the same conference record as Northern Illinois with 7-1 but NIU held the tiebreaker with their head-to-head win against the Rockets 27-24 in DeKalb, Illinois. In addition to Northern Illinois and Toledo, the West also had two more teams with a conference record of 5-3 or higher. The MAC East was one of the most uncompetitive divisions in college football this year. Besides the Western teams dominating the Eastern, only one team excluding Bowling Green had a record of over .500 in the division (Ohio). Tonight I feel like it is Northern Illinois game to lose. There is much revenge seeking in the locker room by Seniors, Juniors, and Sophomores that experienced last year's defeat. I firmly believe that whosever offense plays better will win as both defenses are "okay" at best. For Bowling Green to win, the defense will have to use a move out of last year's play book and turnover NIU's offense. For Northern Illinois, the key comes with the offense. To win this game tonight, Drew Hare must look like Jordan Lynch. He looks a bit like him already since he is a dual threat quarterback that leads his team in rushing yards as well as passing yards just like Lynch did last season. If Hare plays a similar game like the NIU legend, the Northern Illinois Huskies will walk out with their third MAC title in four years. 
---Northern Illinois 37, Bowling Green 24

9:00 PM EST-FOX
10-2 7. Arizona 
11-1 2. Oregon
PAC-12 Championship Game

The most anticipated rematch in a conference championship game is the Arizona Wildcats versus the Oregon Ducks at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. The first matchup came on November 2 in Eugene and was thought going into it a fairly easy win for the Ducks. How wrong analysts were. The first half was fairly silent and low scoring as Oregon walked into the halftime locker room with a 7-3 lead. Looking back, we now know that the third quarter was the fifteen minutes that changed the game. Arizona began the quarter with a touchdown from Freshman running back Nick Wilson giving the Wildcats a 10-7 lead on the road. Soon, Oregon answered with a Marcus Mariota (JR) passing touchdown to return the lead to Oregon. The next drive was where Arizona shifted the momentum that led to them having confidence in the fourth quarter. A pair of Freshman phenoms Anu Soloman and Nick Wilson gave the Wildcats a 24-14 lead going into the fourth quarter. At this point I must admit two things. One I could not believe what was happening with the Ducks since they were losing at home to a team I never thought would have a chance against them. Number two how did Nick Wilson (FR) score three touchdowns against a team that holds opponents to an average of twenty points in a game. My mind was blown. Then the Ducks started to look like the team we all knew and saw  against then ranked number seven Michigan State a month prior. Oregon  scored ten unanswered to tie the game at 24 with eight minutes left. The Ducks had shifted momentum and was going to make a comeback win...I thought. The Wildcats received the ball at their own 29 yard line, which is where they would start one of the most clutch drives I have seen all college football season. Behind the Senior, Terris Jones-Grigsby, who picked up 58 of the 71 yards on the drive, the Wildcats kept moving the ball slowly but surely down field until they punched it in on a Jones-Grigsby touchdown. Arizona was up 7! One problem though, there was still 2:54 left for this year's probable Heisman trophy winner, Marcus Mariota. The Ducks received the ball on their own nine yardline meaning they would have to go 91 yards to tie the game. Mariota started throwing the ball and advanced it to their own 35 yard line in 34 seconds. Then the deciding play occurred. Mariota started out of the shotgun, took the snap, and scrambled to his right through a pair of offensive blockers. Then out of no where..."Rut Row!" Scooby Wright III (SO), linebacker for Arizona hit Mariota forcing him to the ground for the sack...we thought. It turned out that Wright actually took the ball away from the Oregon quarterback as they were doing to the ground giving Arizona the ball with the chance to put the game away if they could get a first down. Who was going to try to push the ball forward Wilson or Jones-Grigsby? The senior wanted this opportunity to defeat Oregon. It came down to third down and five with 2:02 left in the game. Jones-Grigsby received the handoff and broke free for nine yards. Game...Set...Upset. Arizona did it again for the second time in two years! They caused Mariota's first turnover of the season with the fumble and stunned the whole state of Oregon. Now who really knows why Mariota couldn't hang on to the ball? Some think it was because he was not one hundred percent healthy caused by being sacked seven times the week before against Washington State while others, mostly Wildcat fans, believe Wright just muscled it away from the star QB. In my opinion the loss was the best thing to happen to Oregon this season because since then they have won every game by at least twelve points. It opened their eyes to the fact that they have to show up every game if they want a playoff spot. For Arizona, they lost their next two out of three outings to USC and UCLA making their loss total two for the season. They had to be perfect to even have a chance to win the PAC-12 South. It all came down to last Friday. At 3:30 PM EST, Stanford faced number eight ranked UCLA while number eleven Arizona hosted number thirteen ranked Arizona State in the Territorial Cup. All three of the four teams (UCLA, Arizona State, and Arizona) were tied with the same record and UCLA held the tiebreaker since they defeated Arizona and Arizona State in the previous weeks. If the Bruins won, the winner of the Territorial Cup would only have bragging rights and not a division crown to go with it. UCLA was favorited to win but they lost badly setting up the winner of the "Battle in the Desert" to be in the conference championship against Oregon the next week. Arizona's quarterback, Anu Solomon fought through an injury from the previous week that Arizona State keyed on. If they could put Solomon in excruciating pain, the Sun Devils would party in Tempe that night. The game was tied at halftime by the score of 21-21. Then the Wildcats favorite quarter started...the third. Arizona was even led by the SAME guy as in the Oregon game, Nick Wilson. Wilson ran for 99 of his 178 yards in the third quarter giving his team a two possession lead. Arizona State would decrease the deficit to seven but that was when the defense of Arizona came up big again, this time as a whole unit. The Wildcats' defense stopped the Sun Devils offense on a drive with under two minutes left. Arizona and Oregon were set up for the rematch. Back to tonight, I just don't see Arizona beating Oregon again. They snuck up on the Ducks the first time but that they really won't be surprising them with their ability tonight. One of the my keys of the game for Arizona is to contain Mariota and put pressure on him in the pocket to take out his dual threat ability. If Arizona's defense, which is very capable of turning the game into a low scoring affair, can achieve this goal they will have a chance. Also, Arizona must get their running game involved like the previous matchup. USE NICK WILSON. The kid is clutch especially in the third quarter. For Oregon, put pressure on Solomon, mentally and physically. Mariota has been in many high-stakes pressure situations but Solomon has not. If the Freshman's composure is broken, Arizona will be in for a world of hurt. The final thought I would like to point out about tonight's game is that it is essentially and most importantly for a spot in the College Football Playoffs. If Oregon wins, they are for sure in and if Arizona pulls off another upset, I think they should be in because it is hard enough to beat the Ducks once yet alone twice.
---Oregon 41, Arizona 24

Saturday Night Football
12:00 PM EST-ESPN2
8-4 Louisiana Tech
11-1 24. Marshall
Conference-USA Championship Game
---Marshall 34, Louisiana Tech 27

12:00 PM EST-ESPN
7-4 Houston
at 8-3 Cincinnati
---Cincinnati 24, Houston 21

12:00 PM EST-ABC
2-9 Iowa State
at 10-1 5. TCU
---TCU 55, Iowa State 13

4:00 PM EST-CBS
11-1 1. Alabama
10-2 16. Missouri
SEC Championship Game

This is the last SEC school vs. SEC school game of the year and it is liable to be a blowout. Alabama has had a terrific first season without their star quarterback that led them to two BCS Championships, A.J. McCarron. McCarron was a senior last year and was drafted in the fifth round by the Cincinnati Bengals this past NFL draft. Without him, there was much concern if Blake Sims (SR), McCarron's back-up last year, could carry the QB torch. Sims has been a surprise this season for the Crimson Tide since this is his Senior year and only his first season as the starter. He has thrown 24 touchdowns on 2,988 yards while only being picked off 7 times. In addition to his passing game, Sims has had a good year on the ground as he has ran for 6 touchdowns on 302 yards. Sims has been playing just like McCarron did last year and is almost the same quality of quarterback besides there being one big difference. McCarron is married to Katherine Webb while Sims is not. Sims has led "the Tide" to four wins over top 25 teams with their only loss of the season came against number 11. Mississippi in Oxford.  But similar to Oregon, I believe the loss helped Alabama more than hurt them. It showed the players that one can't just throw the "Big A" at their opponents and win. They must put in effort and make smart, heady decisions. Also, I must not forgot the playmakers that surround the Sims. Amari Cooper (JR) has really raised his draft stock this season since last year he went into a Sophomore Slump after a good Freshman season. Cooper has caught 14 touchdowns on 1,573 yards, which is good enough for the second most in football by a wide receiver. In addition to Cooper, Sims' backfield mate, T.J. Yeldon (JR), has been destroying Bama's opponents' front seven. Yeldon has ran for 8 touchdowns this season, 2 of which came last week in the Iron Bowl. These three players have single handedly made opponents regret scheduling the best team in the country on their schedule. Missouri was lucky, Alabama was not on their regular season schedule. This is the Tigers second straight season in the SEC Championship Game but instead of going up against Auburn like last year, they must face this year's winner of the Iron Bowl, Alabama. Missouri has had a good season again in 2014. There only let down came in Week 4 when they were upset at home against a bad Indiana Hooisers team. Two weeks later, Mizzou was shutout by number 13. Georgia without Todd Gurley. At this point it looked unlikely that the Tigers would return to the Atlanta. But the Tigers kept on fighting as they survived in their last three weeks against number 24. Texas A&M on the road, Tennessee on the road, and Arkansas at home. So how did they get the division crown if Georgia held the tiebreaker? Well the Bulldogs lost their first conference game in a shootout in Week 2 against number 24. South Carolina. Then, after the game in Columbia, Missouri, an unexpected loss occurred against a bad Florida Gators team in Jacksonville. That was the deciding loss. Georgia had two conference losses, Missouri only one. Today's game has the possibility to be a low scoring affair. Both teams have lockdown defenses that keep their opponents from scoring. Alabama holds their opponents to an average of 16.9 points per game, well enough for fifth best in the nation while Missouri holds their opponents to19.7 points a game, well enough for thirteenth best in the country. My key of the game for Alabama is to put pressure on Missouri's Maty Mauk (SO). He runs the Tigers offense, but has been inaccurate at times during the course of the season. Mauk's completion percentage is a horrific 53.5%. It should be an easy job for the Crimson Tide to turnover Mauk this afternoon just based on his inaccuracy but if pressure is added, it could turn ugly...quick. Another key for Alabama is to get T.J. Yeldon involved early and often. It is pretty easy to get Cooper the ball through Sims but Alabama is their best when the running game is eating up yards. If Yeldon starts running loose, the passing game will open up leading to Alabama points. Missouri's keys to the game is to shut down Alabama's offense.  I would put double coverage on Cooper in the reason of trying to take him out of the game completely. Then I would keep two linebackers in the box at all times to defend against Yeldon and the running game. I really don't expect Missouri to pull off the near impossible at the Georgia Dome this afternoon since Alabama will come out determined knowing that this game for them is has a spot in the College Football Playoffs riding on it. If Mizzou wins there is still no way they will make the playoffs with the horrific loss to Indiana. Roll Tide will be the most said phrase today in Atlanta.
---Alabama 48, Missouri 17

7:45 PM EST-ESPN
9-2 9. Kansas State
10-1 6. Baylor
BIG 12 Game of the Week

If it wasn't a must win prior to today it is now. The Baylor Bears need a win and some say a very convincing win against a very good Kansas State squad to even have a chance to make it to the College Football Playoffs. TCU's blowout win by the score of 55-3 this afternoon against Iowa State most likely sealed the deal in my mind but if Baylor can beat Kansas State by 20 to 30 points, who knows? The Wildcats of K-State have had a great season so far despite having no chance to get into the College Football Playoffs coming into today. Led by Senior Jake Waters, the Wildcats have only lost two games both against teams that were ranked higher than seventh when the matchup occurred. In their third matchup of the year, they were barely outdone by Nick Marshall and the number 5. ranked Auburn Tigers by the score of 20-17. Then in their showdown with number 6. ranked TCU in Fort Worth, the Wildcats were ran over 41-20. Despite those two losses against very good teams, Kansas State has won every game. Tonight they face Baylor who is currently ranked sixth, will the patten of losing to teams in the top six of the poll continue? Bryce Petty (SR) and the Bears hope so. Petty has been injured for a few games this season dealing with various injuries but Baylor has persevered and continued to win. They did lose to West Virginia at Morgantown in a game where Petty's receivers let him down with drop after drop. The fourth quarter of the game was the difference as WV led by Clint Trickett (SR) scored two touchdowns in a span of four minutes to make the score 41-27 with 7:35 left. Baylor was ranked fourth at the time but that would be the last time so far this season. The Beats hope they can get back to the fourth rank but it won't happen unless they win tonight. My keys of the game for Kansas State is to hit Petty...HARD. He is coming off a concusion from last week's 48-46 shootout win against Texas Tech. Of course Petty has been watching a lot of hockey and will suit up tonight but if Kansas State gets him out of sorts, they will have a chance. For Baylor, I believe the offensive line needs to give Petty time to maneuver in the pocket and throw the ball. Also, they need to put pressure on Kansas State's Waters and force him to feel rushed and make poor throws. Only the committee knows who they will decide to put in the playoffs: Baylor or TCU, considering Baylor had a spectacular comeback victory in Waco this season against TCU, but for this discussion even to occur, step one is to beat Kansas State.
---Baylor 34, Kansas State 28

8:00 PM EST-ABC
12-0 3. Florida State
10-2 16. Georgia Tech
ACC Championship Game
---Florida State 27, Georgia Tech 24

8:17 PM EST-FOX
10-2 14. Wisconsin
11-1 6. Ohio State
BIG 10 Championship Game
---Wisconsin 38, Ohio State 20

10:00 PM EST-CBS
6-6 Fresno State
10-2 23. Boise State
Mountain West Championship Game
---Boise State 34, Fresno State 20

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