Tuesday, March 31, 2015

PW's Collegeinsider.com Tournament (CIT) Final Four Predictions

By Peyton Wesner

Collegeinsider.com Tournament Semi-Finals

7:00 PM EST-CBS College Sports
21-12 (10-6) Tennessee-Martin
at 22-12 (9-9) Evansville

21-12 (10-6) Tennessee-Martin
Quality Conference Wins:
-Morehead State 75-72 in Overtime (Home)
-Eastern Illinois 81-51 (Home)
-SIU Edwardsville 64-59 (Home)
-Eastern Illinois 75-73 in Overtime (Road)
Single-Digit Conference Losses:
-Eastern Kentucky 66-58 (Home)
-Belmont 72-67 (Road)
-Murray State 65-62 (Road)
-SIU Edwardsville 76-68 (Road)
-Murray State 73-67 (Home)
Tournament Run:
-Northwestern State 104-79 in Round of 32 (Road)
-USC Upstate 60-49 in Sweet Sixteen (Road)
-Eastern Kentucky 70-69 in Elite Eight (Road)
Key Contributors:
---#24 Deville Smith (SR)
-13.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 4.6 APG & 1.7 SPG.
---#30 Twymond Howard (JR)
-13.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, & 1.7 APG.
---#25 Marshun Newell (SR)
-13.4 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.6 APG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#3 Alex Anderson (JR)
-12.4 PPG, 2.3 RPG & 1.9 APG.
---#40 Javier Martinez (SO)
-5.7 PPG & 3.8 RPG.

22-12 (9-9) Evansville
Solid Wins:
-Belmont 65-62 (Road)
-Ohio 81-69 in Overtime (Home)
-#23 Northern Iowa 52-49 (Home)
-Indiana State 89-78 (Home)
Single-Digit Losses:
-Green Bay 64-62 in Semi-Final of Gulf Coast Showcase.
-Murray State 81-79 (Home)
-Indiana State 79-75 in Overtime (Road)
-Loyola (IL) 71-70 (Home)
-Drake 70-65 (Road)
-Bradley 56-53 (Home)
-Illinois State 69-67 in Overtime (Home)
-Illinois State 71-67 in Quarterfinal of Missouri Valley Conference "Arch Madness" Tournament (in St. Louis)
Tournament Run:
-IPFW 82-77 in Round of 32 (Home)
-Eastern Illinois 83-68 in Sweet Sixteen (Road)
-Louisiana-Lafayette 89-82 in Elite Eight (Road)
Key Contributors:
---#31 D.J. Balentine (JR)
-20.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG, & 3.2 APG.
---#55 Egidijus Mockevicius (JR)
-12.3 PPG, 9.9 RPG, & 2.2 BPG.
---#5 Mislav Brzoja (SO)
-7.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG, & 2.6 APG.
---#12 Adam Wing (JR)
-7.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG, & 1.9 APG.
---#50 Blake Simmons (SO)
-7.2 PPG, 1.8 RPG, & 2.2 APG.
---#4 Duane "Boo" Gibson (SO)
-5.2 PPG & 2.6 RPG.
---#3 Jaylon Brown (SO)
-5.0 PPG, 1.9 RPG, & 2.5 APG.

Prediction:
The biggest home game this decade for the Evansville Purple Aces is tonight at the Ford Center. It has been a very up and down season for Evansville this year as for some experts within the Missouri Valley Conference they were considered a disappointment since they finished fifth in the MVC standings with all of their starters returned from the previous season. But now I believe we can all agree that the Purple Aces' 2014-2015 season cannot be classified as "disappointing" since they have danced into the Collegeinsider.com Tournament Final Four. How the quick turnaround you ask? Three words: "D.J. and Giddy." The leading scorer in the Missouri Valley Conference D.J. Balentine shot poorly to end the regular season in a pair of games against Illinois State, but in tournament play he has averaged 30.7 points per game while shooting 59.3% from the field! D.J. for MVP? I would say so! Although Balentine has played better than anyone in any post-season tournament this month, he has not done it alone. The big fella from Lithuania, Egidijus "Giddy" Mockevicius, who also received All-MVC First Team honors, has defended the paint and influenced games without scoring points. Tonight, Mockevicius must rebound from a two for seven outing at Lousiana-Lafayette to avoid his team being soared by.

The Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks are the last team from the Ohio Valley Conference to still be playing this season. Tennessee-Martin came into the CIT on a two-game losing streak with their next game against a high-scoring, Northwestern State team. And they won...convincingly thanks to a triple-double from "Star Senior" Deville Smith (21 points, 12 rebounds, and 11 assists.) After the twenty-five point win on the road they traveled south and defeated USC Upstate by holding them to 29.6% from the floor. But conference rival Eastern Kentucky ended their run right? Wrong! With six seconds left and EKU up one, Senior Marshun Newell put his rough shooting game aside and nailed a three pointer that later won the game for his team. So easily stated is that Tennessee-Martin is no stranger to playing and WINNING on the road in March. But will they tonight? This showdown for the privilege to go to the Championship Game of the Collegeinsider.com Tournament will essentially be a fight between experience (UT-Martin) and youth (Evansville)---but that shouldn't matter because at this point in the season Juniors can be considered Seniors. Despite the previous statement, I believe the Skyhawks will double-team or  "box and one" D.J. Balentine to try to limit his production. Little do they know, Balentine is very capable passer that can find open shooters. Also an advantage for the Purple Aces is that Tennessee-Martin has no post size...whatsoever! The Skyhawks tallest post player is 6'7" meaning Egidijus Mockevicius will have a whole four inches of height advantage. So in other words look Mockevicius to feast on the  guard-oriented offense of Tennessee-Martin. Honestly though---and all my fellow Missouri Valley Conference fans know this---Evansville has a tendency to play down to opponents, which gives me the inkling that the Skyhawks' quartet of Deville Smith, Twymond Howard, Marshun Newell, and Alex Anderson, will bucket a plethora of points turning this into a track meet. Unfortunately for them, Tennessee-Martin will not be able to score enough this evening in the Ford Center as I feel D.J. Balentine will score at least twenty-points while Egidijus Mockevicius posts another double-double.
---Evansville 77, Tennessee-Martin  70


9:00 PM EST-CBS College Sports
21-11 (6-9 on Road) N.J.I.T.
at 22-14 (13-5) Northern Arizona

21-11 (6-9 on Road) N.J.I.T.
Solid Wins:
-Duquesne 84-81 (Road)
-#17 Michigan 72-70 (Road)
-St. Francis (NY) 68-66  (Home)
-St. Francis (PA) 77-65 (Home)
-Maryland-Eastern Shore 69-60 (Home)
-Yale 78-71 (Home)
-Hampton 86-67 (Home)
Single-Digit Losses:
-University of Massachusetts-Lowell 63-61 (Home)
-University of Massachusetts-Lowell 71-67 (Road)
-Lafayette 76-71 (Road)
-Dartmouth 62-53 (Road)
-Albany 65-59 (Home)
Tournament Run:
-New Hampshire 84-77 in Round of 32 (Home)
-Cleveland State 80-77 in Sweet Sixteen (Home)
-Canisius 78-73 in Elite Eight (Home)
Key Contributors:
---#5 Damon Lynn (SO)
-17.6 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 3.8 APG, & 1.7 SPG.
---#11 Winfield Willis (JR)
-12.4 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.4 APG, & 1.1 SPG.
---#2 Tim Coleman (SO)
-11.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.2 BPG, & 1.3 SPG.
---#0 Ky Howard (JR)
-11.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG, & 4.0 APG.
---#10 Daquan Holiday (SR)
-5.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG, & 1.5 BPG.

22-14 (13-5) Northern Arizona
Solid Wins:
-Southern 70-63 in Overtime in Emerald Coast Classic
-Loyola Marymount 71-69 (Home)
-Saint Mary's 73-71 (Road)
-Northern Colorado 65-60 (Home)
-Eastern Washington 73-69 (Home)
-Sacramento State 70-68 (Home)
-Northern Colorado 63-57 in Quarterfinal of Big Sky Tournament (in Missoula, MT)
Single-Digit Conference Losses:
-Sacramento State 78-73 (Road)
-Weber State 74-65 (Home)
-Montana 64-57 (Road)
-Northern Colorado 76-74 (Road)
-Montana 61-59 in Semi-Final of Big Sky Tournament (in Missoula, MT)
Tournament Run:
-Grand Canyon 75-70 in Round of 32 (Road)
-Sacramento State 78-73 in Sweet Sixteen (Road)
-Kent State 74-73 in Overtime in Elite Eight (Home)
Key Contributors:
---#2 Quinton Upshur (SR)
-14.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG, & 1.1 BPG.
---#4 Kris Yanku (SO)
-13.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 5.1 APG, & 1.2 SPG.
---#1 Aaseem Dixon (SR)
-12.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG, & 2.3 APG.
---#11 Ako Kaluna (SO)
-8.8 PPG & 3.4 RPG.
---#34 Jordyn Martin (JR)
-7.8 PPG & 7.4 RPG.
---#32 Gaellan Bewernick (SR)
-5.1 PPG & 4.9 RPG.

Prediction:
Who would have thought that N.J.I.T. would be in the CIT Final Four! And if you did predict the magical run, you must have known something none of us knew about the team. The New Jersey Institute of Technology Highlanders, N.J.I.T. for short, may ring a bell to most of you college basketball fans since they upset the ranked Michigan Wolverines in Ana Arbor earlier in the season, but if you have not followed them since...they have been just as good! Led by "Stud Sophomore" Damon Lynn, the Highlanders have defeated some very good mid-majors in the Collegeinsider.com Tournament not with their defense like some, but with their offense which has produced 80.7 points per game. Like I previously noted, Lynn has been the star on the team and has scored twenty plus points in two out of the three games including in the quarterfinals against Canisius. One thing that has yet to been proven for the "Jersey Boys" is if they can win on the road, but I guess we will find out tonight against Northern Arizona. The home team this evening, the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks of the Big Sky Conference, have survived close call after close call so far in the Collegeinsider.com Tournament. Just look at their average winning margin in the tourney! It is 3.7 points per game! Unlike their opponent this evening that has one great player, the Lumberjacks have many good players to go along with a bench that provides great depth. In each tournament game, NAU has had a different leading scorer as Aaseem Dixon put up twenty-one in the first round, Jordyn Martin posted twenty-seven in the round of sixteen, while Kris Yanku scored nineteen pointd to advance his team to the semi-finals. Is NAU the UNI of the Big Sky Conference considering all the offensive options they posses? Personally, I can see a bit of resemblence with the Northern Iowa Panthers and since I do, I do not see the Lumberjacks having any trouble at home against the Highlanders, who have a 6-9 record on the road during the regular season. I really hate to say it because it has been an amazing run, but I do not think Damon Lynn will be able to do enough for his team to move them into a winner take all battle with D.J. Balentine's Evansville Purple Aces on Thursday Night at the Ford Center
---Northern Arizona 74, N.J.I.T. 60



7:00 PM EST-CBS College Sports
23-14 (13-5) Northern Arizona
at 23-12 (9-9) Evansville

23-14 (13-5) Northern Arizona
Solid Wins:
-Southern 70-63 in Overtime in Emerald Coast Classic
-Loyola Marymount 71-69 (Home)
-Saint Mary's 73-71 (Road)
-Northern Colorado 65-60 (Home)
-Eastern Washington 73-69 (Home)
-Sacramento State 70-68 (Home)
-Northern Colorado 63-57 in Quarterfinal of Big Sky Tournament (in Missoula, MT)
Single-Digit Conference Losses:
-Sacramento State 78-73 (Road)
-Weber State 74-65 (Home)
-Montana 64-57 (Road)
-Northern Colorado 76-74 (Road)
-Montana 61-59 in Semi-Final of Big Sky Tournament (in Missoula, MT)
Tournament Run:
-Grand Canyon 75-70 in Round of 32 (Road)
-Sacramento State 78-73 in Sweet Sixteen (Road)
-Kent State 74-73 in Overtime in Elite Eight (Home)
-N.J.I.T. 68-61 in Final Four (Home)
Key Contributors:
---#2 Quinton Upshur (SR)
-14.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG, & 1.1 BPG.
---#4 Kris Yanku (SO)
-13.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 5.1 APG, & 1.2 SPG.
---#1 Aaseem Dixon (SR)
-13.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG, & 2.3 APG.
---#11 Ako Kaluna (SO)
-8.6 PPG & 3.3 RPG.
---#34 Jordyn Martin (JR)
-7.7 PPG & 7.7 RPG.
---#32 Gaellan Bewernick (SR)
-5.1 PPG & 4.9 RPG.

23-12 (9-9) Evansville
Solid Wins:
-Belmont 65-62 (Road)
-Ohio 81-69 in Overtime (Home)
-#23 Northern Iowa 52-49 (Home)
-Indiana State 89-78 (Home)
Single-Digit Losses:
-Green Bay 64-62 in Semi-Final of Gulf Coast Showcase.
-Murray State 81-79 (Home)
-Indiana State 79-75 in Overtime (Road)
-Loyola (IL) 71-70 (Home)
-Drake 70-65 (Road)
-Bradley 56-53 (Home)
-Illinois State 69-67 in Overtime (Home)
-Illinois State 71-67 in Quarterfinal of Missouri Valley Conference "Arch Madness" Tournament (in St. Louis)
Tournament Run:
-IPFW 82-77 in Round of 32 (Home)
-Eastern Illinois 83-68 in Sweet Sixteen (Road)
-Louisiana-Lafayette 89-82 in Elite Eight (Road)
-Tennessee-Martin 79-66 in Final Four (Home)
Key Contributors:
---#31 D.J. Balentine (JR)
-20.2 PPG, 3.2 RPG, & 3.2 APG.
---#55 Egidijus Mockevicius (JR)
-12.1 PPG, 9.8 RPG, & 2.1 BPG.
---#12 Adam Wing (JR)
-7.7 PPG, 3.9 RPG, & 1.9 APG.
---#5 Mislav Brzoja (SO)
-7.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG, & 2.6 APG.
---#50 Blake Simmons (SO)
-7.3 PPG, 1.8 RPG, & 2.3 APG.
---#4 Duane "Boo" Gibson (SO)
-5.1 PPG & 2.7 RPG.
---#3 Jaylon Brown (SO)
-5.1 PPG, 1.8 RPG, & 2.4 APG.
---#10 Jaylon Moore (SR)
-4.2 PPG.

Loyola-Chicago did it, can Evansville pull off the second postseason tournament championship for the Missouri Valley Conference tonight? The Evansville Purple Aces caused the Skyhawks to be grounded for the summer on Tuesday night as they won by the score of 79-66. So it was an easy victory? Not exactly. With 5:45 in the first half the game was actually tied at 28! The problem for UTM was that D.J. Balentine was once again the best player on the court and he went on a personal 7-0 run to shift the prior Tennessee-Martin momentum while breaking the tie. Later Evansville started to "wing it" by using Adam Wing, who himself went on a 6-0 personal run. Before anyone knew it the Purple Aces were ahead 46-34 going into halftime and they were not done yet. To start the second half Evansville went on a 12-0 run to extend the lead to twenty-four! Although the Skyhawks were able to eventually dwindle UE's lead down, Tennessee-Martin was already down for the count and Evansville was going to the CIT Championship game. "Great Junior," and Most Outstanding Player candidate if the Purple Aces win the championship, D.J. Balentine ended the night with a game-high twenty-eight points on ten for sixteen shooting while his big man Egidijus Mockevicius only played twenty minutes and scored four points. With Mockevicius having one of his worst games of the season, a pair of unlikely heroes, Adam Wing and Blake Simmons posted a combined twenty-nine points (Wing 16 points and Simmons 13 points), which no one expected. Another thing I am sure no one expected on Tuesday night, this time in Flagstaff, Arizona, was that their home team would be down twelve early in the first half by an institute of technology. 

The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks were playing the biggest game in school history, but the scoreboard was making many fans nervous because the New Jersey Institute of Technology was looking to continue their magical season right to Evansville for the championship. Star Senior Quinton Upshur was determined to not allow his collegiate career to end and went on a 7-1 run individually to break the tension within the arena and decrease their opponent's lead to six from twelve. The battle was on! With 6:11 left in regulation, the Lumberjacks finally took back the lead with a layup and pair of free throws from Kris Yanku. As soon as the Highlanders lost the lead, I had a feeling that they would never see themselves ahead on the scoreboard for the rest of the night...I was right. NAU's defense turned it up a notch and held N.J.I.T.'s offense to one for nine shooting from the floor after the final official timeout while the home team made six of their eight of the free throws to seal the deal. Northern Arizona guard Quinton Upshur was the top performer on the night as he bounced back from a horrid eight point performance against Kent State with twenty-three points against the Highlanders. The matchup was set, Northern Arizona would travel to Southern Indiana to face the Evansville Purple Aces with everything on the line.

Keys for Victory for NAU:
-Share the ball between Upshur, Yanku, and Dixon.
-Get Egidijus Mockevicius in foul trouble and cause him to miss easy close range shots.
-Although it will be tough, contain D.J. Balentine to under twenty-five points.

Keys for Victory for UE:
-Get the ball to Balentine and let him create off the dribble.
-Turn the game into a high-scoring, track meet.
-Make Mockevicius a factor by getting him touches against Len Springs.

Prediction:
There is no three game series in the Collegeinsider.com Tournament as in forty game minutes a champion will be crowned. This evening some important questions will be answered such as can D.J. Balentine stay great on the biggest stage and will Northern Arizona's depth, like Northern Iowa, give the Purple Aces trouble? Besides the Lumberjacks having more offensive depth, these two are very similar as Evansville averages only one more point per game on the offense than NAU while also allowing 1.6 less per game to opponents. Despite more scorers on Northern Arizona, I am ultimately going with Evansville. Why? Well the Purple Aces do have home-court advantage, which significantly helped both sides get to the Championship in their semi-final matchup. In addition, with the way D.J. Balentine has played in the tournament (30 points per game), I see no way that the Lumberjacks will be able to stop him. Even if they do double team or box and one him, like I said Tennessee-Martin should have done, he can find the open man. Adam Wing and Blake Simmons were factors against Skyhawks because of how much attention Balentine was getting! Do not expect Egidijus Mockevicius to play only twenty minutes and score four points because that is not realistic. Please do not get me wrong though, Northern Arizona has a good team that could very well go into the Ford Center and knock around the Purple Aces. In fact if Upshur outscores Balentine, the Lumberjacks will be crowned champions. Despite all the stats and facts, a popular artist once said "It's going down and I am yelling timber"...but this time the tree will be falling on the Lumberjacks in the form of a loss from the Evansville Purple Aces.
---Evansville 71, Northern Arizona 70
Most Outstanding Player: Evansville's D.J. Balentine (JR)




PW's CIT Tournament Pick'em Record: 2-0

PW's Postseason Pick'em Record: 14-4

PW's Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Prediction Record: 8-1

PW's Regular Season Prediction Record: 205-70 (81-18 in the MVC)


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