Saturday, March 7, 2015

PW's Weekend Special of College Basketball Predictions

By Peyton Wesner

Ah, March. Snow keeping kids out of school in some towns, while in other parts of the country people are watching MLB spring training in eighty degree weather. Hmm, I feel like I am forgetting something really important about March. Oh that's right. March Madness!!! Although conference tournaments are beginning to tip for automatic bids, please do not forget about the following games as they will have a huge impact on what seed line teams ends up on.

March 7, 2015

12:00 PM EST-FSN
21-9 (11-6) #21 Butler
at 21-9 (11-6) #24 Providence

21-9 (11-6) #21 Butler
Lunardi's Bracketology: 6 Seed
Great Wins:
-#5 North Carolina 74-66 in Quarterfinal of Battle 4 Atlantis.
-Georgetown 64-58 in Third Place Game of Battle 4 Atlantis.
-#15 St. John's 73-69 (Road)
-#21 Seton Hall 79-75 in Overtime (Road)
-#24 Seton Hall 77-57 (Home)
-St. John's 85-62 (Home)
Single-Digit Conference Losses:
-Providence 66-62 (Home)
-Georgetown 61-59 (Road)
-#6 Villanova 68-65 (Home)
Last Game:
-Loss To Georgetown 60-54 (Home)
Key Contributors:
---#24 Kellen Dunham (JR)
-16.7 PPG & 2.5 RPG.
---#21 Roosevelt Jones (JR)
-12.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 3.7 APG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#45 Andrew Chrabascz (SO)
-11.0 PPG & 3.7 RPG.
---#3 Alex Barlow (SR)
-8.8 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.7 APG, & 2.2 SPG.
---#31 Kameron Woods (SR)
-8.0 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 1.1 SPG, & 1.0 BPG.
---#30 Kelan Martin (FR)
-7.3 PPG & 2.1 RPG.

21-9 (11-6) #24 Providence
Lunardi's Bracketology: 6 Seed
Great Wins:
-Notre Dame 75-74 in Championship of Hall of Fame Tip-Off.
-Miami (FL) 76-62 (in Brooklyn Hoops Holiday Invitational)
-Butler 66-62 (Road)
-Georgetown 60-57 in Overtime (Home)
-#24 Georgetown 74-71 (Road)
"Never Shoulda Happened" Losses:
-Boston College 69-60 (Road)
-Brown 77-67 (Home)
-Marquette 75-66 (Road)
Last Game:
-Win Against Seton Hall 79-66 (Road)
Key Contributors:
---#23 LaDontae Henton (SR)
-20.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG, & 1.4 SPG.
---#3 Kris Dunn (SO)
-15.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 7.5 APG, & 2.8 SPG.
---#25 Tyler Harris (JR)
-10.1 PPG & 4.0 RPG.
---#33 Carson Desrosiers (SR)
-7.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, & 2.6 BPG.
---#0 Ben Bentil (FR)
-6.2 PPG & 4.4 RPG.

Prediction:
The loser gets fourth place in the Big East Tournament while the winner will receive either the second or third seed depending on what the Georgetown Hoyas do this afternoon. The Butler Bulldogs were defeated by the Georgetown Hoyas at home on Tuesday, which allowed Georgetown to hold the tiebreaker over them for seeding purposes. Star Junior Kellen Dunham's string of games with twenty-plus points was snapped as he was held to three for twelve shooting for eight points. Today, the Junior from Pendleton, Indiana, will need much more than eight to defeat the team with the highest scoring player in the conference. LaDontae Henton, who pushed his career total over 2,000 points with twenty-one versus Seton Hall in his last game, will try to go out on top with a victory on his Senior Night. This season, Henton, thanks to the graduation of Bryce Cotton and Kadeem Batts, has become the Friars' first option and has thrived in the role shown in his scoring average of 20.5 points per game coming into today. Scoring the ball with Henton, is Sophomore Kris Dunn and Junior Tyler Harris. Dunn, who has been hot of late, comes into today's averaging 16.5 points per game in his last two games. In the first meeting between these two teams, the Friars survived at Hinkle Fieldhouse due a career-high twenty-five points from Dunn. Both team's stars, Butler's Kellen Dunham and Providence's LaDontae Henton struggled shooting as both ended the night with eighteen points each. Today, I expect Dunham to have another poor shooting day on the road while Henton scores twenty-five plus points. The return of Butler Sophomore Andrew Chrabascz could play a factor today since he is good three-point power forward that can stretch the floor. Charabascz had a decent first game back in the lineup after breaking a bone in his hand as he posted eight points in thirty-one minutes. Nevertheless, even with Charabascz, I do not see the Friars losing this afternoon.
---Providence 67, Butler 65

4:00 PM EST-ESPN
24-6 (13-4) #9 Kansas
at 20-9 (11-6) #15 Oklahoma

24-6 (13-4) #9 Kansas
Lunardi's Bracketology: 2 Seed
Great Wins:
-#20 Michigan State 61-56 in Championship of Orlando Classic.
-Georgetown 75-70 (Road)
-#13 Utah 63-60 (in Kansas City)
-#21 Baylor 56-55 (Road)
-#24 Oklahoma State 67-57 (Home)
-#19 Oklahoma 85-78 (Home)
-#17 Texas 75-62 (Road)
-Kansas State 68-57 (Home)
- #16 Baylor 74-64 (Home)
Conference Losses:
-#11 Iowa State 86-81 (Road)
-Oklahoma State 67-62 (Road)
-#23 West Virginia 62-61 (Road)
-Kansas State 70-63 (Road)
Last Game:
-Win Against #20 West Virginia 76-69 in Overtime (Home)
Key Contributors:
---#34 Perry Ellis (JR)
(Sprained right knee versus West Virginia.)
-14.2 PPG & 7.0 RPG.
---#0 Frank Mason III (SO)
-12.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 4.2 APG, & 1.4 SPG.
---#1 Wayne Seldon Jr. (SO)
-9.4 PPG, 2.7 RPG, & 3.0 APG.
---#12 Kelly Oubre Jr. (FR)
-8.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, & 1.1 SPG.
---#2 Cliff Alexander (FR)
(NCAA Induced Suspension-Eligibility Concerns.)
-7.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG, & 1.3 BPG.
---#14 Brannen Green (SO)
(Suspended for today's game.)
-6.1 PPG & 2.3 RPG.

20-9 (11-6) #15 Oklahoma
Lunardi's Bracketology: 4 Seed
Great Wins:
-#22 UCLA 75-65 in Quarterfinal of Battle 4 Atlantis.
-Butler 59-46 in Semi-Final of Battle 4 Atlantis.
-#22 Baylor 73-63 (Home)
-#10 Texas 70-49 (Road)
-#24 Oklahoma State 82-65 (Home)
-#15 West Virginia 71-52 (Home)
-#14 Iowa State 94-83 (Home)
Single-Digit Conference Losses:
-Kansas State 66-63 in Overtime (Home)
-#11 Kansas 85-78 (Road)
-Kansas State 59-56 (Road)
Last Game:
-Loss To #17 Iowa State 77-70 (Road)
Key Contributors:
---#24 Buddy Hield (JR)
-17.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.8 APG, & 1.4 SPG.
---#11 Isaiah Cousins (JR)
-12.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 2.1 APG, & 1.3 SPG.
---#35 TaShawn Thomas (SR)
-11.0 PPG, 6.2 RPG, & 1.4 BPG.
---#00 Ryan Spangler (JR)
-10.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG, & 1.2 BPG.
---#10 Jordan Woodard (SO)
-9.1 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 4.1 APG, & 1.5 SPG.

Prediction:
So Kansas is without their best player (Perry Ellis), their second leading rebounder (Cliff Alexander), and key bench player (Brennen Green)? Hmm, well this shoukd get ugly. The Kansas Jayhawks cliched their eleventh straight Big 12 Regular Season Championship last Tuesday with an amazing 76-69 comeback overtime win. Although it was a complete team victory and the Jayhawks had four players in double-figures, the player that stood out to me was Frank Mason III. Mason III scored nineteen points in the rally while hitting much needed layups and free throws. Also, he only had one turnover! Mason III and his backcourt mate Wayne Seldon Jr. must keep the turnovers down for a Oklahoma team that wants the second seed in the Big 12 Tournament. The Oklahoma Sooners are a dangerous team not only in the Big 12 Tournament but in the NCAA Tournament. With a starting five of talent featuring Bobby Hield and Isaiah Cousins, Oklahoma is in great position to get a good seed for the "Big Dance." In their previous game, the Sooners allowed a twenty-point lead to evaporate at Hilton Fieldhouse, but today they will not allow an opportunity to defeat Kansas get away. Look for Sooner Star Bobby Hield, who is averaging 18.5 points per game in Big 12 play, to continue his scoring dominance against another Big 12 opponent that happens to be shorthanded. 
---Oklahoma 77, Kansas 62

4:00 PM EST-CBS
18-11 (9-8) Stanford
at 27-3 (15-2) #5 Arizona

18-11 (9-8) Stanford
Lunardi's Bracketology: "Next Four Out"
Solid Wins:
-UNLV 89-60 in Semi-Final of the Coaches Vs. Cancer Classic.
-#9 Texas 74-71 (Road)
-#21 Washington 68-60 in Overtime (Home)
-Connecticut 72-59 (Home)
-California 72-61 (Home)
-Oregon State 75-48 (Home)
Single-Digit Conference Losses:
-UCLA 86-81 in Overtime (Road)
-#7 Arizona 89-82 (Home)
-Washington State 89-88 (Road)
-UCLA 69-67 (Home)
-Colorado 64-58 (Road)
-Oregon 73-70 (Home)
Last Game:
-Loss To Arizona State 67-62 (Road) 
Key Players:
---#5 Chasson Randle (SR)
-19.2 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 3.1 APG, & 1.4 SPG.
---#21 Anthony Brown (SR)
-15.1 PPG, 7.2 RPG, & 2.8 APG.
---#4 Stefan Nastic (SR)
-13.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG, & 1.0 BPG.
---#25 Rosco Allen (JR)
-8.1 PPG & 4.7 RPG.
---#22 Reid Travis (FR)
-6.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, & 1.0 SPG.

27-3 (15-2) #5 Arizona
Lunardi's Bracketology: 2 Seed
Great Wins:
-#15 San Diego State 61-59 in Championship of Maul Invitational
-#9 Gonzaga 66-63 in Overtime (Home)
-Oregon 80-62 (Road)
-#8 Utah 69-51 (Home)
-Stanford 89-82 (Road)
-Oregon 90-56 (Home)
"Never Should Have Happened" Losses:
-UNLV 71-67 (Road)
-Oregon State 58-56 (Road)
-Arizona State 81-78 (Road)
Last Game:
-Win Against California 99-60 (Home) 
Key Contributors:
---#5 Stanley Johnson (FR)
-14.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.8 APG, & 1.5 SPG.
---#21 Brandon Ashley (JR)
-11.5 PPG & 5.2 RPG.
---#23 Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (SO)
-11.1 PPG, 6.5 RPG, & 1.2 SPG.
---#4 T.J. McConnell (SR)
-9.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 6.1 APG, & 2.1 SPG.
---#35 Kaleb Tarczewski (JR)
-9.3 PPG & 5.2 RPG.
---#1 Gabe York (JR)
-9.2 PPG & 2.2 RPG.

Prediction:
---Arizona 80, Stanford 67

6:30 PM EST-ESPN
28-1 (16-1) #2 Virginia
at 23-7 (11-6) #16 Louisville

28-1 (16-1) #2 Virginia
Lunardi's Bracketology: 1 Seed
Great Wins:
-#21 Maryland 76-65 in ACC/Big Ten Challenge (Road)
-VCU 74-57 (Road)
-Miami (FL) 89-80 in Double Overtime (Road)
-#13 Notre Dame 62-56 (Road)
-#12 North Carolina 75-64 (Road)
-#9 Louisville 52-47 (Home)
Only Loss:
-#4 Duke 69-63 (Home)
Last Game:
-Win Against Syracuse 59-47 (Road)
Key Players:
---#15 Malcolm Brogdon (JR)
-13.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG, & 2.6 APG.
---#1 Justin Anderson (JR)
(Will not play due to Apendectomy.)
-13.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG & 2.0 APG.
---#13 Anthony Gill (JR)
-11.7 PPG & 6.8 RPG.
---#5 Darion Atkins (SR)
-7.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG, & 1.1 BPG.
---#10 Mike Tobey (JR)
-7.3 PPG & 5.2 RPG.
---#23 London Perrantes (SO)
-6.3 PPG, 2.4 RPG, & 4.7 APG.

23-7 (11-6) #16 Louisville
Lunardi's Bracketology: 5 Seed
Great Wins:
-#14 Ohio State 64-55 (Home)
-Indiana 94-74 (in Jimmy V Classic)
-#13 North Carolina 78-68 in Overtime (Home)
-Miami (FL) 63-55 (Road)
-Miami (FL) 55-53 (Home)
Single-Digit Losses:
-#1 Kentucky 58-50 (Home)
-#18 North Carolina 72-71 (Road)
-#3 Virginia 52-47 (Road)
-NC State 74-65 (Home)
Last Game:
-Loss To #12 Notre Dame 71-59 (Home)
Key Players:
---#0 Terry Rozier (SO)
-17.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.8 APG, & 2.0 SPG.
---#24 Montrezl Harrell (JR)
-15.6 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.0 SPG, & 1.3 BPG.
---#3 Chris Jones (SR)
(Dismissed from team on February 22 for sexual assault allegation.)
-13.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.6 APG, & 2.0 SPG.
---#25 Wayne Blackshear (SR)
-10.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG, & 1.2 SPG.

Prediction:

---Louisville 60, Virginia 59

9:00 PM EST-ESPN
27-3 (14-3) #3 Duke
at 21-9 (11-6) #19 North Carolina

27-3 (14-3) #3 Duke
Great Wins:
-#19 Michigan State 81-71 (Home)
-Stanford 70-59 in Championship of Coaches vs. Cancer Classic.
-#2 Wisconsin 80-70 (Road)
-#6 Louisville 63-62 (Road)
-St. John's 77-68 (Road)
-#2 Virginia 69-63 (Road)
-#10 Notre Dame 90-60 (Home)
-Syracuse 80-72 (Road)
--#15 North Carolina 92-90 in Overtime (Home)
Losses:
-NC State 87-75 (Road)
-Miami (FL) 90-74 (Home)
-#8 Notre Dame 77-73 (Road)
Last Game:
-Win Against Wake Forest 94-51 (Home)
Key Players:
---#15 Jahlil Okafor (FR)
-17.8 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 1.5 BPG, & 1.4 BPG.
---#2 Quinn Cook (SR)
-15.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.9 APG, & 1.1 SPG.
---#12 Justice Winslow (FR)
-12.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 2.0 APG, & 1.2 SPG.
---#5 Tyus Jones (FR)
-11.4 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 5.7 APG, & 1.5 SPG.
---#14 Rasheed Sulaimon (JR)
(Dismissed from team on January 29 for sexual assault allegation.)
---#21 Amile Jefferson (JR)
-7.2 PPG & 6.2 RPG.
---#13 Matt Jones (SO)
-6.1 PPG & 2.5 RPG.

21-9 (11-6) #19 North Carolina
Lunardi's Bracketology: 5 Seed
Great Wins:
-#22 UCLA 78-56 in Consolation Bracket of Battle 4 Atlantis.
-#18 Florida 75-64 in Consolation Championship of Battle 4 Atlantis.
-#12 Ohio State 82-74 in CBS Sports Classic (in Chicago)
-#5 Louisville 72-71 (Home)
-Syracuse 93-83 (Home)
-Miami (FL) 73-64 (Road)
Single-Digit Conference Losses:
-#13 Notre Dame 71-70 (Home)
-#3 Virginia 75-64 (Home)
-#4 Duke 92-90 in Overtime (Road)
Last Game:
-Win Against Georgia Tech 81-49 (Road) 
Key Players:
---#5 Marcus Paige (JR)
-13.2 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 4.4 APG, & 1.5 SPG.
---#11 Brice Johnson (JR)
-12.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG, & 1.2 BPG.
---#3 Kennedy Meeks (SO)
-12.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG, & 1.4 BPG.
---#44 Justin Jackson (FR)
-9.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG, & 2.6 APG.
---#13 J.P. Tokoto (JR)
-8.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 4.1 APG, & 1.5 SPG.
---#22 Isaiah Hicks (SO)
-6.8 PPG & 3.0 RPG.
---#0 Nate Britt (SO)
-6.1 PPG & 1.7 APG.

Prediction:
---Duke 74, North Carolina 72

PW's Regular Season Prediction Record: 191-65 (73-17 in the MVC)

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