Saturday, February 21, 2015

PW's MVC Men's Basketball Predictions for (Feb 21/Feb 22)

By Peyton Wesner

February 21, 2015
1:05 PM EST-Full Court/ESPN3
10-18 (3-12) Southern Illinois
at 13-14 (9-6) Indiana State

10-18 (3-12) Southern Illinois 
Conference Wins:
-Loyola (IL) 59-52 (Home)
-Bradley 70-59 (Home)
-Illinois State 65-59 (Home)
Single-Digit Conference Losses:
-Missouri State 53-50 (Home)
-Indiana State 59-56 (Home)
-Evansville 75-66 (Road)
-#18 Northern Iowa 59-52 (Home)
-Missouri State 52-46 (Road)
-Drake 63-61 (Road)
-Loyola 66-62 (Road)
-Evansville 72-64 (Home)  
Last Game:
-Loss To #13 Wichita State 84-62 (Home)
Players to Watch:
---#25 Anthony Beane (JR) 
-16.0 PPG, 2.8 RPG, & 1.3 SPG.
---#14 Jordan Caroline (FR) 
-9.7 PPG & 6.6 RPG.
---#33 Sean O'Brien (SO) 
-7.7 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.7 APG, & 1.1 SPG.
---#1 Jalen Pendleton (JR)
-6.6 PPG, 3.0 RPG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#5 Deion Lavender (FR)
-6.3 PPG & 2.4 RPG.

13-14 (9-6) Indiana State
Solid Wins:
-Illinois State 63-61 (Road)
-Evansville 79-75 in Overtime (Home)
-Missouri State 71-56 (Home)
-Illinois State 71-70 in Overtime (Home) 
"Never Shoulda Happened" Losses:
-Eastern Illinois 60-56 (Home)
-Missouri-Kansas City 73-70 in Double Overtime.
-Drake 84-78 (Road) 
Last Game:
-Loss To Missouri State 60-56 (Road)
Players to Watch:
---#11 Devonte Brown (JR) 
-12.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG, & 3.1 APG.
---#4 Brenton Scott (FR) 
-11.6 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 1.8 APG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#1 Khristian Smith (JR) 
-10.0 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.7 APG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#5 Justin Gant (SR) 
-9.3 PPG &!4.2 RPG.
---#15 Tre' Bennett (JR)
-7.9 PPG, 2.2 RPG, & 3.0 APG.
---#0 Jake Kitchell (SR)
-6.9 PPG, 5.0 RPG, & 1.0 BPG.

Prediction:
Indiana State's season is beginning to become comical as they literally cannot get back over .500. Last Wednesday, the then 13-13 Sycamores traveled to Springfield, Missouri, to face the Missouri State Bears in a very winnable game. Indiana State fell behind early to their opponent but eventually fought their way back thanks to three 3-pointers in a row, two of which came from sapling Brenton Scott. After the Sycamores tied the match, the score swung back and forth between teams until the 1:51 mark in the second half when Scott drained another trey to give his team a 56-55 lead. Unfortunately for Indiana State fans, Scott's three pointer would be the last made field goal of the evening as the Sycamores went 0-4 from the field and 0-3 from beyond the arc for the remainder. Missouri State Freshman Chris Kendrix put the nail in the coffin with his free throw to make their lead four poibts with three seconds left. The upset was final, the Sycamores dropped! The problem on the evening was not Indiana State's defense, but their offense as the team shot a combined 39.3% from the field. The only players that actually had good performances were Brenton Scott (shot six for eleven for sixteen points) and Khristian Smith (shot five for nine for thirteen points.) The two Seniors, Justin Gant and Jake Kitchell, and Devonte Brown specifically struggled as they combined for five for twenty-three shooting on the evening. The shooting must be better this afternoon back home at the Hulman Center to come out on top against the Southern Illinois Salukis. The Southern Illinois Salukis ran out on the court and seven minutes later the game was over. The opponent was the nationally ranked Wichita State Shockers and the Salukis were completly ran over by the Shockers by the score of 84-62. SIU's defense was non-existance last Wednesday as the Dawgs allowed Wichita State to shoot 58.3% from the field while only shooting 40.7% themselves. In other words, SIU had an overall bad performance. The only bright spot in the outing was the performances of Anthony Beane and Freshmen Deion Lavender and Jordan Caroline. All three scored in double-figures with Lavender leading the way with fifteen (Beane 14 pts and Caroline 10 pts). The emergence of Lavender as a top player is very important for the Salukis as it provides another weapon opponents must pay attention to. In the first meeting between these two teams, the Sycamores rallied from a five point deficit with 2:55 left and won on a three pointer from Devonte Brown with two seconds left on the clock. Brown scored ten of Indiana State's last thirteen points that day and ended up with a total of twenty-two points. This afternoon though, I do not expect the Sycamores to have rally in order to win, but control the tempo from the tip. I do think the Salukis could give Indiana State some problems, specifically Anthony Beane, but I feel the Sycamores have so many quality players like Devonte Brown, Justin Gant, Brenton Scott, and Khristian Smith that they will come out on top. Besides look at the pattern of results Indiana State has been on, today is their day to win.
---Indiana State 67, Southern Illinois 61

4:00 PM EST-Full Court
8-20 (3-12) Bradley
at 25-2 (14-1) 11. Northern Iowa

8-20 (3-12) Bradley
Solid Wins:
-Central Michigan 84-73 (Home)
-Southern Illinois 63-44 (Home)
-Missouri State 61-59 (Home)
-Evansville 56-53 (Road)
"Never Should Have Happened" Losses:
-Texas-Arlington 86-75 (Home)
-Robert Morris 68-61 (Home)
-UC Irvine 55-47 in the Semi-Final of the Las Vegas Holiday Hoops Classic.
-Arkansas-Little Rock 64-54 in the Consolation Championship of the Las Vegas Holiday Hoops Classic.
Last Game:
-Loss To Illinois State 60-47 (Home)
Players to Watch:
---#2 Warren Jones (JR)
-13.1 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 1.9 APG, & 1.6 SPG.
---#5 Tramique Sutherland (JR)
-11.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG, & 3.1 APG.
---#4 Auston Barnes (SR) 
-10.3 PPG, 4.6 RPG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#24 Omari Grier (JR) 
-8.4 PPG & 1.9 APG.
---#21 Josh Cunningham (FR)
-7.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#0 Ka'Darryl Bell (JR)
-6.7 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 2.3 APG, & 1.0 SPG.

25-2 (14-1) 11. Northern Iowa
Lunardi's Bracketology: 4 Seed
Solid Wins:
-Stephen F. Austin 79-77 in Overtime (Road)
-Virginia Tech 73-54 in Semi-Final of Cancun Challenge.
-Northwestern 61-42 in Championship of Cancun Challenge.
-Iowa 56-44 (in Des Moines)
-Loyola (IL) 67-58 (Home)
-Indiana State 66-60 (Home)
-Illinois State 54-53 (Road)
-#12 Wichita State 70-54 (Home)
-Indiana State 61-51 (Road)
-Illinois State 83-64 (Home)
Losses:
-VCU 93-87 in Overtime (Road)
-Evansville 52-49 (Road)
Last Game:
-Win Against Loyola (IL) 58-39 (Road)
Players to Watch:
---#10 Seth Tuttle (SR)
-16.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG, & 3.3 APG.
---#11 Wes Washpun (JR)
-8.4 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.9 APG, & 1.1 SPG.
---#1 Deon Mitchell (SR)
-6.9 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 2.3 APG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#14 Nate Buss (JR)
-6.7 PPG & 2.7 RPG.

Prediction:
Everyone do the "Interlude Dance" because the Northern Iowa Panthers are winning! For the most case this season UNI has led almost every game from start to finish including their last matchup against Loyola. The Panthers started out the game on an 18-8 run, which eventually turned into a 58-39 victory. The defense of Northern Iowa was fantastic in Chicago as they held the Ramblers to a measly thirty-nine points and a shooting percentage of 39.0%. The offense was good as well as seven players finished the night with at least six points led by Seth Tuttle and Nate Buss with ten. This afternoon, the Bradley Braves own the next try to upset Northern Iowa in Cedar Rapids. Bradley is currently on a three-game skid after dropping home games to two of their Illinois rivals. In their previous game, the Braves were overmatched by the Illinois State Redbirds. The offense for Bradley was once again absent as the team shot 29.4% from the field and 23.5% from the three point line. In fact the only player to reach double-figures that night was Omari Grier, who had ten points. Face it Bradley, it would take a mircale to pull off an upset against the best team in the Missouri Valley Conference in their house.  The first game between these two games resulted in an eleven-point win for the Panthers. Today, I expect the deficit to be around fifteen to twenty points and Bradley's score to lessen in a Northern Iowa win.
---Northern Iowa 67, Bradley 50

8:00 PM EST-Full Court
16-11 (6-9) Loyola (IL)
at 16-11 (8-7) Illinois State

16-11 (6-9) Loyola (IL)
Solid Wins:
-Kent State 69-61 (Road)
-Texas Tech 62-44 in the Semi-Finals of the Las Vegas Classic.
-Boise State 48-45 in the Championship of the Las Vegas Classic.
-Bradley 64-49 (Home)
-Evansville 71-70 (Road)
-Missouri State 53-50 without Milton Doyle and Christian Thomas (Road) 
Single-Digit Conference Losses:
-#23 Northern Iowa 67-58 (Road)
-Southern Illinois 59-52 (Road)
-Southern Illinois 59-52 (Road)
-Evansville 65-56 (Home)
-Illinois State 48-45 (Home)
Last Game:
-Loss To #11 Northern Iowa 58-39 (Home)
Players to Watch:
---#35 Milton Doyle (SO) 
(DNP in last nine with ankle injury.)
-11.5 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 4.2 APG, & 1.1 SPG.
---#32 Christian Thomas (SR)
-10.7 PPG & 4.0 RPG.
---#24 Montel James (JR)
-9.0 PPG & 4.3 RPG.
---#4 Devon Turk (JR)
-8.3 PPG & 2.6 RPG.
---#2 Earl Peterson (JR)
-7.4 PPG, 2.0 RPG, & 1.7 APG.

16-11 (8-7) Illinois State
Solid Wins:
-Old Dominion 64-45 in the Semi-Final of Paradise Jam.
-DePaul 78-72 (Road)
-Missouri State 69-55 (Road)
-Evansville 77-51 (Home)
Single-Digit Conference Losses:
-Indiana State 63-61 (Home)
-#16 Wichita State 70-62 (Road)
-Indiana State 71-70 in Overtime (Road)
-#20 Northern Iowa 54-53 (Road)
-Southern Illinois 65-59 (Road)
-#15 Wichita State 68-62 (Home)
Last Game:
-Win Against Bradley 60-47 (Road) 
Players to Watch:
---#3 Daishon Knight (SR) 
-14.0 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.5 APG, & 1.1 SPG.
---#44 DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell (JR)
-12.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#22 Reggie Lynch (SO) 
-9.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG, & 2.9 BPG.
---#4 Bobby Hunter (SR) 
-8.1 PPG & 2.2 RPG.
---#24 Deontae Hawkins (FR)
-7.5 PPG & 5.5 RPG.
---#1 Paris Lee (SO)
-6.7 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 3.7 APG, & 2.6 SPG.
---#11 MiKyle McIntosh (FR)
-6.0 PPG & 4.1 RPG.

Prediction:
Running ahead versus Flying high. Christian Thomas versus Daishon Knight. Loyola versus Illinois State. The Loyola Ramblers' first two-game winning streak since joining the Missouri Valley Conference did not turn into their first three-game winning streak as Seth Tuttle's Northern Iowa Panthers shut down Loyola in Chicago last Wednesday. The Ramblers just could not put the ball in the basket as they made only 39% of their attempts from the floor. Northern Iowa's defense simply sufficated the Ramblers offense and held Loyola's active leading scorer, Christian Thomas to a game-high six points along with Ben Richardson and Devon Turk. Is Milton Doyle back yet? I wish, but currently his status is questionable for tonight with the hope that he will be good to go for Arch Madness. While Loyola just started a losing streak, the Illinois State Redbirds just ended their three-game skid. The Redbirds, who are fighting for the third spot in the MVC with Indiana State and Evansville, defeated the Bradley Braves in Peoria Wednesday night. Illinois State was led by their defensive play, which held their opponent to 29.6% from the field and 47 points total. Star Senior Daishon Knight finally broke out of his shooting lull by going six for twelve while scoring fifteen points. Knight's teammate, Reggie Lynch also played a good game as he had twelve points, six rebounds, and five blocks. If Knight and Lynch can replicate their performances from Peoria, the Ramblers will be in trouble this evening. The first meeting between these two teams from Illinois went down to the buzzer as the Redbirds escaped with a three point win. Tonight, I see more of a high scoring game in contrast with the first as Illinois State's Knight and Lynch combine for twenty-seven plus points in a seven-point win.
---Illinois State 64, Loyola (IL) 57

February 22, 2015
2:00 PM EST-ESPN3
10-17 (4-11) Missouri State
at 8-19 (5-10) Drake

10-17 (4-11) Missouri State
Conference Wins:
-Southern Illinois 53-50 (Road)
-Drake 62-37 (Home)
-Southern Illinois 52-46 (Home)
Single-Digit Conference Losses:
-Evansville 56-54 (Home)
-Bradley 61-59 (Road)
-Loyola (IL) 53-50 (Home)
-Evansville 73-66 (Road)
Last Game:
-Win Against Indiana State 60-56 (Home)
Players to Watch:
---#30 Camyn Boone (JR)
-8.5 PPG & 5.1 RPG.
---#2 Austin Ruder (SO) 
-7.6 PPG & 2.2 RPG.
---#23 Dorian Williams (JR)
-7.6 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 4.5 RPG, & 1.6 SPG.
---#20 Gavin Thurman (JR)
-5.9 PPG & 2.3 RPG.

8-19 (5-10) Drake
Conference Wins:
-Indiana State 84-78 (Home)
-Bradley 69-57 (Road)
-Evansville 70-65 (Home)
-Southern Illinois 63-61 (Home)
-Bradley 60-54 (Home)
Single-Digit Conference Losses:
-#16 Wichita State 66-58 (Home)
-Loyola (IL) 50-47 (Road)
-Illinois State 64-56 (Home)
Last Game:
-Loss To Evansville 61-52 (Road)
Players to Watch:
---#12 Reed Timmer (FR) 
-10.8 PPG, 2.1 RPG, & 2.4 APG.
---#2 Gary Ricks Jr. (SR)
-10.6 PPG, 3.2 RPG, & 2.2 APG.
---#11 Jacob Enevold Jensen (SR) 
-7.4 PPG & 5.4 RPG.
---#3 Jordan Daniels (SR)
-7.3 PPG.
---#25 Chris Caird (SR)
-7.0 PPG & 2.1 RPG.

Prediction:
The Missouri State Bears did it! Last Wednesday, the Bears surprised the whole Missouri Valley Conference by breaking their four-game losing streak in an upset win over the Indiana State Sycamores. Right out of the gate, the Bears took control as they were up 17-9 with 9:26 remaining in the first half. Then the Sycamores came charging back and tied the score at 17. The game was on! After a long period of back and forth action, Indiana State stole the lead from Missouri State with 1:51 left in the game on a Brenton Scott three pointer that put the Sycamores ahead by one. On the following possession Dorrian Williams made a jumper taking the lead back for Missouri State. The winning margin would increase for the Bears thanks to their defense, which held Indiana State to 0-4 shooting in the last 1:45. Missouri State Freshman Chris Kendrix issued the final blow by making the front end of an one and one, increasing the lead to four with three seconds left. Kendrix went on to finish with a career-high twenty points to go along with eight rebounds. The team the Bears are facing today though, arguably have the best Freshman in MVC. The Drake Bulldogs were once again shot down on their Indiana road trip, this time by the Evansville Purple Aces. The Purple Aces controlled the tempo for most of the game, but at one point in the second half the Bulldogs were leading 39-37. Evansville quickly answered with a 10-0 from Juniors Egidijus Mockevicius and Adam Wing to provide the Purple Aces with a 47-39 lead. Drake never recovered from the run and went on to lose by nine. Freshman Reed Timmer, who was averaging 15.8 points per game in his last six performances prior, was held to a measly four points while Gary Ricks Jr. was also held under his average at seven points. The main producers on the evening were Jacob Enevold Jensen and Trevor Berkeley. The two players combined for twenty-two points with Enevold Jensen supplying twelve of them. The offense from Timmer and Ricks Jr. must be better for any chance of victory this afternoon. This showdown is very important for the Bulldogs because if they win they would tie the Loyola Ramblers for sixth place going into their meeting in Des Moines on Wednesday. With that being said, I see Drake coming out with a sense of urgency on both the offensive and defensive helping them come out with the needed win. Lastly, I expect a combined thirty-five plus points between Ricks Jr. and Timmer to lead the Drake Bulldogs over Missouri State at home.
---Drake 61, Missouri State 56

4:00 PM EST-ESPNU
19-8 (9-6) Evansville
at 24-3 (14-1) 13. Wichita State

19-8 (9-6) Evansville
Solid Wins:
-San Francisco 79-72 in Third Place Game of Gulf Coast Showcase.
-Wright State 86-78 (Home)
-Belmont 65-62 (Road)
-Ohio 81-69 in Overtime (Home)
-#23 Northern Iowa 52-49 (Home)
-Indiana State 89-78 (Home)
Single-Digit Losses:
-Green Bay 64-62 in Semi-Final of Gulf Coast Showcase.
-Murray State 81-79 (Home)
-Indiana State 79-75 in Overtime (Road)
-Loyola (IL) 71-70 (Home)
-Drake 70-65 (Road)
-Bradley 56-53 (Home)
Last Game:
-Win Against Drake 61-52 (Home) 
Players to Watch:
---#31 D.J. Balentine (JR)
-19.4 PPG, 3.3 RPG, & 3.3 APG.
---#55 Egidijus Mockevicius (JR)
-12.2 PPG, 10.0 RPG, & 2.4 BPG.
---#5 Mislav Brzoja (SO)
-8.2 PPG, 4.5 RPG, & 2.8 APG.
---#50 Blake Simmons (SO)
-7.6 PPG, 1.8 RPG, & 2.3 APG.
---#12 Adam Wing (JR)
-7.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG, & 2.2 APG.

24-3 (14-1) 13. Wichita State
Lunardi's Bracketology: 4 Seed
#3 Best Mid-Major According to CollegeInsider.com
Solid Wins:
-Memphis 71-56 (in Sioux Falls)
-St. Louis 81-52 (Home)
-Seton Hall 77-68 (Home)
-Alabama 53-52 (Home)
-Illinois State 70-62 (Home)
-Loyola (IL) 67-53 (Road)
-Evansville 61-41 (Road)
-Indiana State 74-57 (Home)
-Illinois State 68-62 (Road)
Losses:
-#25 Utah 69-68 in Overtime (Road)
-George Washington 60-54 in the Championship of the Diamond Head Classic.
-#18 Northern Iowa 70-54 (Road)
Last Game:
-Win Against Southern Illinois 84-62 (Road)
Players to Watch:
---#31 Ron Baker (JR) 
-15.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.3 APG, & 1.2 SPG.
---#23 Fred Van Vleet (JR) 
-12.0 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 5.3 APG, & 1.8 SPG.
---#12 Darius Carter (SR) 
-11.5 PPG & 5.3 RPG.
---#32 Tekele Cotton (SR)
-9.7 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.9 APG, & 1.3 SPG.

Prediction:
Today is the day we fans find out if the Evansville Purple Aces are a contender in Arch Madness. The Evansville Purple Aces had very high expectations coming into this season as they were one of two Missouri Valley Conference teams (Northern Iowa) bringing all of last year's starters back this season. Although the conference season started off great for the Purple Aces with an upset win over Northern Iowa at home, losses to Loyola (IL), Drake, and Bradley have plaqued their record, making them 9-6 in MVC play rather than 12-3. In Evansville last game, "The Valley's" leading scorer D.J. Balentine had a terrific game as he shot an efficient eight for sixteen from the field for twenty-four of Evansville's sixty-one points. Balentine is by far Evansville's best player, but at times this season he has struggled shooting the ball accurately. Tonight against the reigning 2014 Arch Madness Champion Wichita State Shockers, Balentine must be locked-in to have any chance of pulling off the upset on the road. The Shockers continued their dominance with a 84-62 slaughtering at Carbondale over the Southern Illinois Salukis. Surprisingly to me, the Shockers were not led by any member of the "Fantastic Four," but Freshman Shaquille Morris. Morris had a career night as he tied a career-high seven rebounds to go along with a career-high seventeen points. If Morris can turn into a fifth weapon on an already great Wichita State Shockers team, LOOK OUT, because they could make another Final Four run in the NCAA Tournament. So back to today's main event, do any of you thing Evansvillle will honestly pull off the upset on the road? In the first matchup between these two teams in Evansville, Wichita State destroyed the Purple Aces by the score of 61-41 behind a Darius Carter double-double (eighteen points/eleven rebounds) and a great defensive show that caused UE to shoot 30% from the field and hold D.J. Balentine to sixteen points. This afternoon should be no different. I believe Wichita State's Fantastic Four will conbine for fifty-plus points in a seventeen point victory over Evansville that sees Balentine be held close to single-digits in the points column.
---Wichita State 67, Evansville 50

THE ROAD TO ARCH MADNESS
It is never to early to begin looking ahead to March so here is the seedings and matchups if the 2015 Missouri Valley Conference Tournament started today.
Arch Madness if it Started Today
1. Northern Iowa 25-2 (14-1) 
2. Wichita State 24-3 (14-1)
3. Evansville 19-8 (9-6) 
4. Indiana State 13-14 (9-6) 
5. Illinois State 16-11 (8-7)
6. Loyola (IL) 16-11 (6-9) 
7. Drake 8-19 (5-10)
8. Missouri State 10-17 (4-11)
9. Southern Illinois 10-18 (3-12) 
10. Bradley 8-20 (3-12)

Thursday Night
G1: MOST vs SIU (MOST Swept the Season Series)
G2: DRAKE vs BRAD (DRAKE Swept the Season Series)

Friday Afternoon
G3: UNI vs W-G1
G4: INST vs ILST (INST Swept the Season Series)
Friday Night
G5: EVAN vs LOY (Split the Season Series. Each Team Won on Road.)
G6: WSU vs W-G2

PW's Prediction Record Coming into Today: 176-63 (62-16 in the MVC)


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