Wednesday, February 25, 2015

PW's MVC Men's Basketball Predictions for (Feb 25)

By Peyton Wesner

Down the final stretch of the season we go! With eight days until Arch Madness and two games left for each school in the conference season, each match is crucial for seeding and momentum going into the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. This evening, a huge game takes place in Des Moines as the Drake Bulldogs will host the Loyola Ramblers in a Battle for Sixth Place and the last bye into the Quarterfinals of Arch Madness. In addition, two matchups are going down between teams that could meet up in semi-final matchups as the ranked Wichita State Shockers will travel to Terre Haute to face-off against the Indiana State Sycamores while the Evansville Purple Aces will head to Cedar Falls in an attempt to sweep the season series with the Northern Iowa Panthers.

February 25, 2015
7:05 PM EST-ESPN3
24-3 (15-1) 11. Wichita State
at 14-14 (10-6) Indiana State

24-3 (15-1) 11. Wichita State
Lunardi's Bracketology: 5 Seed
#3 Best Mid-Major According to CollegeInsider.com
Solid Wins:
-Memphis 71-56 (in Sioux Falls)
-St. Louis 81-52 (Home)
-Seton Hall 77-68 (Home)
-Alabama 53-52 (Home)
-Illinois State 70-62 (Home)
-Loyola (IL) 67-53 (Road)
-Evansville 61-41 (Road)
-Indiana State 74-57 (Home)
-Illinois State 68-62 (Road)
Losses:
-#25 Utah 69-68 in Overtime (Road)
-George Washington 60-54 in the Championship of the Diamond Head Classic.
-#18 Northern Iowa 70-54 (Road)
Last Game:
-Win Against Evansville 62-43 (Home)
Players to Watch:
---#31 Ron Baker (JR) 
-15.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.2 APG, & 1.2 SPG.
---#23 Fred Van Vleet (JR) 
-12.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 5.3 APG, & 1.8 SPG.
---#12 Darius Carter (SR) 
-11.2 PPG & 5.2 RPG.
---#32 Tekele Cotton (SR)
-9.3 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.0 APG, & 1.3 SPG.

14-14 (10-6) Indiana State
Solid Wins:
-Illinois State 63-61 (Road)
-Evansville 79-75 in Overtime (Home)
-Missouri State 71-56 (Home)
-Illinois State 71-70 in Overtime (Home) 
"Never Shoulda Happened" Losses:
-Eastern Illinois 60-56 (Home)
-Missouri-Kansas City 73-70 in Double Overtime.
-Drake 84-78 (Road)
-Missouri State 60-56 (Road)
Last Game:
-Win Against Southern Illinois 78-58 (Home)
Players to Watch:
---#11 Devonte Brown (JR) 
-12.7 PPG, 4.4 RPG, & 3.2 APG.
---#4 Brenton Scott (FR) 
-11.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 1.7 APG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#1 Khristian Smith (JR) 
-10.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.7 APG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#5 Justin Gant (SR) 
-9.6 PPG, & 4.2 RPG.
---#15 Tre' Bennett (JR)
-7.9 PPG, 2.5 RPG, & 3.1 APG.
---#0 Jake Kitchell (SR)
-6.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG, & 1.0 BPG.

Prediction:
No pressure Wichita State! The Wichita State Shockers, who have won their last six games, tacked on another dominating victory Sunday in a 62-43 blowout over the Evansville Purple Aces. The best guard duo in the Missouri Valley feasted on their opponent and ended up with a combined forty of their team's sixty-two points. Pre-Season All-American Point Guard Fred Van Vleet acheived a huge accomplishment as he passed Toure Murray for the most assists in Shockers' history on a pass to Rashard Kelly for a made layup. While Van Vleet finished the day with the "stat-sheet stuffer" totals of twenty-two points, eight rebounds, five assists, and two steals, his teammate, Ron Baker, collected a double-double with an eighteen point, fifteen rebound performance. With Van Vleet and Baker playing their best, Wichita State will head into the Hulman Center for their last "true road test" prior to the showdown with Northern Iowa. The Indiana State Sycamores will lose tonight. Before you jump on me with the thought that I am not giving them a chance, look at their record...they are due for a loss. Last Saturday, the Sycamores played great basketball in a blowout win of their own against the Southern Illinois Salukis. A mixture of youth in Brenton Scott (seventeen points) and experience in Justin Gant (sixteen points and five rebounds) led Indiana State's effort. The offense was great on the day as the Sycamores finished shooting 49.1% from the field and 50.0% from beyond the arc while getting to the charity stripe for twenty-five free throws. In the first meeting in Wichita between the Shockers and the Sycamores, Wichita State controlled from the tip and held Indiana State to 34.8% shooting. Although, I do not expect the Sycamores to shoot so poorly again, I feel the Shockers will come out on top. I know for a fact that "the Forest" will be rocking, but I highly doubt Van Vleet, Baker, or Cotton will be shaken by the environment.
---Wichita State 67, Indiana State 61

8:00 PM EST-ESPN3
10-19 (3-13) Southern Illinois
at 17-11 (9-7) Illinois State

10-19 (3-13) Southern Illinois
Conference Wins:
-Loyola (IL) 59-52 (Home)
-Bradley 70-59 (Home)
-Illinois State 65-59 (Home)
Single-Digit Conference Losses:
-Missouri State 53-50 (Home)
-Indiana State 59-56 (Home)
-Evansville 75-66 (Road)
-#18 Northern Iowa 59-52 (Home)
-Missouri State 52-46 (Road)
-Drake 63-61 (Road)
-Loyola 66-62 (Road)
-Evansville 72-64 (Home)  
Last Game:
-Loss To Indiana State 78-58 (Road)
Players to Watch:
---#25 Anthony Beane (JR) 
-16.2 PPG, 2.7 RPG, & 1.2 SPG.
---#14 Jordan Caroline (FR) 
-9.7 PPG & 6.6 RPG.
---#33 Sean O'Brien (SO) 
-7.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.7 APG, & 1.1 SPG.
---#1 Jalen Pendleton (JR)
-6.6 PPG, 3.0 RPG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#5 Deion Lavender (FR)
-6.4 PPG & 2.4 RPG.

17-11 (9-7) Illinois State
Solid Wins:
-Old Dominion 64-45 in the Semi-Final of Paradise Jam.
-DePaul 78-72 (Road)
-Missouri State 69-55 (Road)
-Evansville 77-51 (Home)
-Loyola (IL) 48-45 (Road)
Single-Digit Conference Losses:
-Indiana State 63-61 (Home)
-#16 Wichita State 70-62 (Road)
-Indiana State 71-70 in Overtime (Road)
-#20 Northern Iowa 54-53 (Road)
-Southern Illinois 65-59 (Road)
-#15 Wichita State 68-62 (Home)
Last Game:
-Win Against Loyola (IL) 67-60 (Home)
Players to Watch:
---#3 Daishon Knight (SR) 
-14.2 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.5 APG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#44 DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell (JR)
-12.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#22 Reggie Lynch (SO) 
-9.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG, & 2.8 BPG.
---#4 Bobby Hunter (SR) 
-7.8 PPG & 2.2 RPG.
---#24 Deontae Hawkins (FR)
-7.4 PPG & 5.4 RPG.
---#1 Paris Lee (SO)
-6.5 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 3.6 APG, & 2.6 SPG.
---#11 MiKyle McIntosh (FR)
-6.2 PPG & 4.3 RPG.

Prediction:
Here comes the Redbirds! On Saturday night, Illinois State survived a good effort from the Loyola Ramblers behind a great game by Daishon Knight. Knight finally got back on track with a seven for twelve, twenty-one point outing that broke a string of six bad games where the point guard, who is the fifth leading scorer in the MVC, shot 37.3% from the floor while averaging 9.3 points per game. In addition, Freshman MiKyle McIntosh had a "Senior-like game" as he posted ten points and eight rebounds for Illinois State. Another first-year Redbird DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell continued his good scoring with a fourteen point performance. Let's just say, the way Illinois State is playing, the Salukis are not fortunate to be limping into Bloomington this evening. Southern Illinois was shot down for a fourth straight time in Terre Haute on Saturday. The Salukis defense just could not get stops as Indiana State got many good looks at the basket and finished the day shooting 49.1% from the field. In fact, SIU star Anthony Beane was the only player hitting shots for the Salukis as he finished with twenty-two points on nine for fifteen shooting. Can Beane single-handedly pull off the upset and help his team sweep the season series? In my opinion, the win at Carbondale over the Redbirds was a fluke, so tonight I see Illinois State coming out with a concerted effort to blowout their opponent and make a statement. Sure, Anthony Beane could very easily get his points, but with the lack of a great big man, the Redbirds' Reggie Lynch will dominate the paint while his running mate Knight has another great game. 
---Illinois State 70, Southern Illinois 55

8:05 PM EST
8-21 (3-13) Bradley
at 10-18 (4-12) Missouri State

8-21 (3-13) Bradley
Solid Wins:
-Central Michigan 84-73 (Home)
-Southern Illinois 63-44 (Home)
-Missouri State 61-59 (Home)
-Evansville 56-53 (Road)
"Never Should Have Happened" Losses:
-Texas-Arlington 86-75 (Home)
-Robert Morris 68-61 (Home)
-UC Irvine 55-47 in the Semi-Final of the Las Vegas Holiday Hoops Classic.
-Arkansas-Little Rock 64-54 in the Consolation Championship of the Las Vegas Holiday Hoops Classic.
Last Game:
-Loss To #11 Northern Iowa 56-39 (Road)
Players to Watch:
---#2 Warren Jones (JR)
-12.5 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 1.8 APG, & 1.5 SPG.
---#5 Tramique Sutherland (JR)
-11.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, & 3.2 APG.
---#4 Auston Barnes (SR) 
-10.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#24 Omari Grier (JR) 
-8.1 PPG & 1.9 APG.
---#21 Josh Cunningham (FR)
-7.5 PPG, 7.1 RPG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#0 Ka'Darryl Bell (JR)
-6.7 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 2.3 APG, & 1.0 SPG.

10-18 (4-12) Missouri State
Conference Wins:
-Southern Illinois 53-50 (Road)
-Drake 62-37 (Home)
-Southern Illinois 52-46 (Home)
-Indiana State 60-56 (Home)
Single-Digit Conference Losses:
-Evansville 56-54 (Home)
-Bradley 61-59 (Road)
-Loyola (IL) 53-50 (Home)
-Evansville 73-66 (Road)
Last Game:
-Loss To Drake 78-43 (Road)
Players to Watch:
---#30 Camyn Boone (JR)
-8.5 PPG & 5.1 RPG.
---#2 Austin Ruder (SO) 
-7.6 PPG & 2.2 RPG.
---#23 Dorian Williams (JR)
-7.6 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 4.5 RPG, & 1.6 SPG.
---#20 Gavin Thurman (JR)
-5.9 PPG & 2.3 RPG.

Prediction:
If you do not want to be in last place for Arch Madness, win tonight in Springfield! The Bradley Braves are once again having a very disappointing season. From the strip club arrest and suspension of leading scorer Warren Jones to three separate three-game losing streaks, times have not been great at the Carver Arena. The cherry on top of the losing sundae could arguably be the Braves being held to a season-low thirty-nine points in Cedar Falls against the Northern Iowa Panthers. So will it be fight or flight for Bradley this evening at Missouri State? The Bears are somewhat in the same situation as their opposition tonight, but the journey has been much different. The conference season started off fantastic for the Missouri State Bears as they were 2-0 and talk around the university was that they could be a contender for the conference crown this season. Then, the losses started to pile up and the next thing anyone knew was that Pre-Season All-MVC star guard Marcus Marshall decided to quit the team. Since Marshall has left, Missouri State has won two games, both being at home against Southern Illinois and Indiana State respectively. Like Bradley, in Missouri State's last game, the Bears were held to a very low total of points (forty-three) and was embarrassed not by arguably the best team in the conference (like the Braves) but by the Drake Bulldogs. So whichever team wants it more will win this game (period). Looking at a players standpoint, the Braves have more talented players, but the game is on the Bears home court and I do not see them getting embarrased in front of their fans. Bradley won the first matchup 61-59 in Peoria, but this time, Missouri State will get their revenge.
---Missouri State 57, Bradley 53

8:05 PM EST
16-12 (6-10) Loyola (IL)
at 9-19 (6-10) Drake

16-12 (6-10) Loyola (IL)
Solid Wins:
-Kent State 69-61 (Road)
-Texas Tech 62-44 in the Semi-Finals of the Las Vegas Classic.
-Boise State 48-45 in the Championship of the Las Vegas Classic.
-Bradley 64-49 (Home)
-Evansville 71-70 (Road)
-Missouri State 53-50 without Milton Doyle and Christian Thomas (Road) 
Single-Digit Conference Losses:
-#23 Northern Iowa 67-58 (Road)
-Southern Illinois 59-52 (Road)
-Southern Illinois 59-52 (Road)
-Evansville 65-56 (Home)
-Illinois State 48-45 (Home)
Last Game:
-Loss To Illinois State 67-60 (Road)
Players to Watch:
---#35 Milton Doyle (SO) 
(DNP in last ten with ankle injury.)
-11.5 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 4.2 APG, & 1.1 SPG.
---#32 Christian Thomas (SR)
-10.9 PPG & 4.0 RPG.
---#24 Montel James (JR)
-9.0 PPG & 4.4 RPG.
---#4 Devon Turk (JR)
-8.4 PPG & 2.6 RPG.
---#2 Earl Peterson (JR)
-7.5 PPG, 2.0 RPG, & 1.9 APG.

9-19 (6-10) Drake
Conference Wins:
-Indiana State 84-78 (Home)
-Bradley 69-57 (Road)
-Evansville 70-65 (Home)
-Southern Illinois 63-61 (Home)
-Bradley 60-54 (Home)
Single-Digit Conference Losses:
-#16 Wichita State 66-58 (Home)
-Loyola (IL) 50-47 (Road)
-Illinois State 64-56 (Home)
-Evansville 61-52 (Road)
Last Game:
-Win Against Missouri State 78-43 (Home) 
Players to Watch:
---#12 Reed Timmer (FR) 
-11.0 PPG, 2.3 RPG, & 2.4 APG.
---#2 Gary Ricks Jr. (SR)
-11.0 PPG, 3.2 RPG, & 2.2 APG.
---#11 Jacob Enevold Jensen (SR) 
-7.5 PPG & 5.4 RPG.
---#3 Jordan Daniels (SR)
-7.3 PPG.
---#25 Chris Caird (SR)
-7.1 PPG & 2.1 RPG.

Prediction:
Two teams enter, one team will leave with the sole-position of sixth place and the opportunity to avoid Arch Madness's Thursday Night games. The Loyola Ramblers are having by far their best season since joining the Missouri Valley Conference. Coming into tonight the Ramblers have an overall record of 16-12, but a conference record of 6-10. Why the strugglesin conference play you ask? Hmm, how good woukd your team be without their best player? "Sophomore Stud" Milton Doyle has missed his team's last ten games with an ankle injury and will most likely not play tonight. Doyle is not just a great scorer, but an awesome facilitator that can see over defenders and fit passes to teammates that smaller guards cannot. Coming into tonight's "make or break game" the Ramblers have lost their last two games after winning two in a row. In their most recent match, Loyola was edged by Illinois State on the road. Loyola's defense had a very tough game as they allowed the Redbirds to shoot 52.1% from the field! Is that bad? It's not good! Senior Christian Thomas led the offense with fourteen points while Juniors Devon Turk and Earl Peterson chipped in eleven and nine respectively. The Ramblers will either need to score a lot of points or play better defense if they want to clinch a Quarterfinal bye this evening in Des Moines. The Drake Bulldogs may be playing their best basketball all season, and if you are a Ramblers' fan that is scary. In their last eight games, Drake has won five with four of them coming at home. Where is tonight's game at again? The Knapp Center (Drake's home court). In their last game, the Bulldogs put on a clinic against Missouri State as the team shot 51.8% from the floor and defeated the Bears by 35 points! Guard duo Gary Ricks Jr. and Reed Timmer shot terrific on the day and ended up combining for thirty-seven points (Ricks Jr. with twenty points and Timmer with seventeen points). With their performance from Sunday, I believe Drake will avenge their first loss against Loyola (IL) in Chicago and steal sixth place away from the Ramblers. I feel it may come down to who can score more between Loyola's Christian Thomas and Devon Turk and Drake's Gary Ricks Jr. and Reed Timmer, and if that is the case I am putting my money on Ricks Jr. and Timmer on heir home rims. Obviously, the Bulldogs will not be able to win in a low scoring game (because if the score is low that means Loyola's defense is playing great), but if the game in the sixties, I forsee Drake coming out victorious. 
---Drake 64, Loyola (IL) 62

9:00 PM EST-Full Court
19-8 (9-6) Evansville
at 26-2 (15-1) 10. Northern Iowa

19-8 (9-6) Evansville
Solid Wins:
-San Francisco 79-72 in Third Place Game of Gulf Coast Showcase.
-Belmont 65-62 (Road)
-Ohio 81-69 in Overtime (Home)
-#23 Northern Iowa 52-49 (Home)
-Indiana State 89-78 (Home)
-Drake 61-52 (Home) 
Single-Digit Losses:
-Green Bay 64-62 in Semi-Final of Gulf Coast Showcase.
-Murray State 81-79 (Home)
-Indiana State 79-75 in Overtime (Road)
-Loyola (IL) 71-70 (Home)
-Drake 70-65 (Road)
-Bradley 56-53 (Home)
Last Game:
-Loss To #13 Wichita State 62-43 (Road) 
Players to Watch:
---#31 D.J. Balentine (JR)
-19.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG, & 3.3 APG.
---#55 Egidijus Mockevicius (JR)
-12.3 PPG, 10.0 RPG, & 2.3 BPG.
---#5 Mislav Brzoja (SO)
-8.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, & 2.7 APG.
---#50 Blake Simmons (SO)
-7.5 PPG, 1.8 RPG, & 2.3 APG.
---#12 Adam Wing (JR)
-6.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG, & 2.1 APG.

26-2 (15-1) 10. Northern Iowa
Lunardi's Bracketology: 4 Seed
#2 Best Mid-Major According to CollegeInsider.com
Solid Wins:
-Stephen F. Austin 79-77 in Overtime (Road)
-Virginia Tech 73-54 in Semi-Final of Cancun Challenge.
-Northwestern 61-42 in Championship of Cancun Challenge.
-Iowa 56-44 (in Des Moines)
-Loyola (IL) 67-58 (Home)
-Indiana State 66-60 (Home)
-Illinois State 54-53 (Road)
-#12 Wichita State 70-54 (Home)
-Indiana State 61-51 (Road)
-Illinois State 83-64 (Home)
Losses:
-VCU 93-87 in Overtime (Road)
-Evansville 52-49 (Road)
Last Game:
-Win Against Bradley 56-39 (Home)
Players to Watch:
---#10 Seth Tuttle (SR)
-15.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG, & 3.2 APG.
---#11 Wes Washpun (JR)
-8.5 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.9 APG, & 1.1 SPG.
---#1 Deon Mitchell (SR)
-6.9 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 2.3 APG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#14 Nate Buss (JR)
-6.7 PPG & 2.7 RPG.

Prediction:
Oh shoot! I am so sorry Evansville! Playing at Northern Iowa right after playing at Wichita State is cruel and unfair punishment. The Purple Aces first game of their western road trip didn't go so well as they were absolutly obliterated by the Wichita State Shockers. Evansville shot poorly from everywhere and finished the afternoon with a shooting percentage of 31.3% from the field and 8.3% (1-12) from beyond the arc. The Missouri Valley Conference's leading scorer D.J. Balentine had one of his worst shooting performances of the season and finished the game two for ten from the floor with eight points. Really the only player that came to play for Evansville last Sunday was Egidijus Mockevicius. Mockevicius had a great game and ended up with fifteen points and eleven rebounds. Good luck having the same good stats against the best defensive team in the Missouri Valley Conference on their best player's Senior Night. The Northern Iowa Panthers are having a season for the record books. With the latest Associated Press rankings, UNI continues to top the highest ranking ever in school history (tenth). In addition, the Panthers have held each of their last two opponents to thirty-nine points, not in a half, but in forty minutes of action! While the defense is one of the best in the nation, the offense led by Seth Tuttle isn't too shabby as well and averages 65.2 points per game. In the last matchup between Evansville and Northern Iowa, the Panthers allowed a sixteen-point lead to be erased while being defeated by three points at the Ford Center. Tonight that will not be the case. This evening is Senior Night for Larry Bird Player of the Year Canidate Seth Tuttle and four-year starter Deon Mitchell...and they will not be defeated. Expect Tuttle to have an amazing game after being held to nine points and eight rebounds against Bradley in a blowout win this evening over Evansville. Oh, and D.J. Balentine don't worry, you will definitely score more than eight points, but don't count on too many more than your previous total, because UNI is arguably better than Wichita State.
---Northern Iowa 67, Evansville 45

THE ROAD TO ARCH MADNESS
With eight days left until Arch Madness, here are the seedings and match-ups if the 2015 Missouri Valley Conference Tournament started today.
Arch Madness if it Started Today
1. Northern Iowa 26-2 (15-1) 
2. Wichita State 25-3 (15-1)
3. Indiana State 14-14 (10-6) 
4. Illinois State 17-11 (9-7)
5. Evansville 19-9 (9-7) 
6. Loyola (IL) 16-12 (6-10) 
7. Drake 9-19 (6-10)
8. Missouri State 10-18 (4-12)
9. Southern Illinois 10-19 (3-13) 
10. Bradley 8-21 (3-13)

Thursday Night
G1: MOST vs SIU (MOST Swept the Season Series)
G2: DRAKE vs BRAD (DRAKE Swept the Season Series)

Friday Afternoon
G3: UNI vs W-G1
G4: EVAN vs ILST (ILST Won First Meeting at Redbird Arena)
Friday Night
G5: INST vs LOY (INST Swept the Season Series)
G6: WSU vs W-G2

PW's Prediction Record Coming into Today: 178-63 (64-16 in the MVC)



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