Saturday, February 14, 2015

PW's MVC Men's Basketball Predictions for (Feb 14/Feb 15)

By Peyton Wesner

Now those were some great matchups on Tuesday and Wednesday. Every game was so competitive besides the two played by UNI and Wichita State. Easily stated is the fact that all of the teams are so evenly matched below Northern Iowa and Wichita State. In fact, again the "If Arch Madness started today" matchups did not change with the last set of games. Once again this weekend, I am very excited to watch the action as upsets could be in the fold.

February 14, 2014
4:00 PM EST-Full Court/ESPN3
8-17 (5-8) Drake
at 12-13 (8-5) Indiana State

8-17 (5-8) Drake
Conference Wins:
-Indiana State 84-78 (Home)
-Bradley 69-57 (Road)
-Evansville 70-65 (Home)
-Southern Illinois 63-61 (Home)
Single-Digit Conference Losses:
-#16 Wichita State 66-58 (Home)
-Loyola (IL) 50-47 (Road)
-Illinois State 64-56 (Home)
Last Game:
-Win Against Bradley 60-54 (Home)
Players to Watch:
---#2 Gary Ricks Jr. (SR) 
-11.1 PPG, 3.3 RPG, & 2.3 APG.
---#12 Reed Timmer (FR) 
-11.0 PPG, 2.2 RPG, & 2.3 APG.
---#11 Jacob Enevold Jensen (SR) 
-7.5 PPG & 5.4 RPG.
---#3 Jordan Daniels (SR)
-7.5 PPG.
---#25 Chris Caird (SR)
-7.5 PPG & 2.2 RPG.

12-13 (8-5) Indiana State
Solid Wins:
-Illinois State 63-61 (Road)
-Evansville 79-75 in Overtime (Home)
-Missouri State 71-56 (Home)
-Illinois State 71-70 in Overtime (Home) 
"Never Shoulda Happened" Losses:
-Eastern Illinois 60-56 (Home)
-Missouri-Kansas City 73-70 in Double Overtime.
-Drake 84-78 (Road) 
Last Game:
-Loss To #15 Wichita State 74-57 (Road)
Players to Watch:
---#11 Devonte Brown (JR) 
-13.1 PPG, 4.3 RPG, & 2.9 APG.
---#4 Brenton Scott (FR) 
-11.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 1.7 APG, & 1.1 SPG.
---#1 Khristian Smith (JR) 
-9.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.7 APG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#5 Justin Gant (SR)
-9.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG, & 1.0 BPG.
---#15 Tre' Bennett (JR)
-7.8 PPG, 2.3 RPG, & 3.0 APG.
---#0 Jake Kitchell (SR)
-6.8 PPG & 5.1 RPG.

Prediction:
The Bulldogs are finally running! The Drake Bulldogs started off the season absolutly awful as they were 3-14 overall and 0-5 in conference play going into a matchup with an undefeated conference opponent, the Indiana State Sycamores. On that day, everything changed. Drake behind a twenty-three point performance from Senior Gary Ricks Jr. and a 61.5% team shooting night, shocked the Missouri Valley Conference by knocking off the Sycamores. Including the Indiana State victory, the Bulldogs are 5-3 in their last eight games. I credit the recent success of Drake to Freshman Reed Timmer. At the beginning of the season, the only player that needed to be contained on the team was Ricks Jr., but now with Timmer averaging 16.2 points per game in his last five, teams must be aware of two very capable scorers. Indiana State is the team focused on Timmer and Ricks Jr. this afternoon. The Indiana State Sycamores like Drake had a terrible non-conference season and came into the conference opener 4-8. But that is when everything changed. Indiana State won the opener against Illinois State, which started a five game winning streak to begin the conference season. Like I previously mentioned, Drake ended the streak, which had actually sent the Sycamores into today's game 3-4 since losing in Des Moines. Two players that will square off against Drake's Ricks Jr. and Timmer this afternoon is Devonte Brown and Brenton Scott. With the graduation of 2014 All-MVC Point Guard Jake Odum, Devonte Brown has become the best guard on the team by almost tripling his points per game average from last year. In addition, Brenton Scott has become a quality weapon as a Freshman. In my opinion, we are going to see the two best Freshmen in the Missouri Valley and I very much look forward to watching them face-off. The key for the Sycamores to avoid the season sweep is to play solid defense. Indiana State allowed Drake to shoot over 60% in the first meeting! Teams just do not win allowing opponents to shoot that high and the Trees will not if that occurs again today. For the Bulldogs, I believe they need quality play from Jacob Enevold Jensen. Jensen will either be guarding Justin Gant or Jake Kitchell and he must be able to control the paint because if he does not, the two Seniors will, and lead their team to victory. 
---Indiana State 67, Drake 61

4:00 PM EST
17-8 (7-6) Evansville
at 10-16 (3-10) Southern Illinois

17-8 (7-6) Evansville
Solid Wins:
-San Francisco 79-72 in Third Place Game of Gulf Coast Showcase.
-Wright State 86-78 (Home)
-Belmont 65-62 (Road)
-Ohio 81-69 in Overtime (Home)
-#23 Northern Iowa 52-49 (Home)
-Indiana State 89-78 (Home)
Single-Digit Losses:
-Green Bay 64-62 in Semi-Final of Gulf Coast Showcase.
-Murray State 81-79 (Home)
-Indiana State 79-75 in Overtime (Road)
-Loyola (IL) 71-70 (Home)
-Drake 70-65 (Road)
-Bradley 56-53 (Home)
Last Game:
-Win Against Missouri State 73-66 (Home) 
Players to Watch:
---#31 D.J. Balentine (JR)
-19.4 PPG, 3.3 RPG, & 3.2 APG.
---#55 Egidijus Mockevicius (JR)
-12.5 PPG, 10.5 RPG, & 2.6 BPG.
---#5 Mislav Brzoja (SO)
-8.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG, & 2.8 APG.
---#50 Blake Simmons (SO)
-7.8 PPG, 1.7 RPG, & 2.2 APG.
---#12 Adam Wing (JR)
-7.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG, & 2.2 APG.

10-16 (3-10) Southern Illinois
Solid Wins:
-Loyola (IL) 59-52 (Home)
-Bradley 70-59 (Home)
-Illinois State 65-59 (Home)
Single-Digit Conference Losses:
-Missouri State 53-50 (Home)
-Indiana State 59-56 (Home)
-Evansville 75-66 (Road)
-#18 Northern Iowa 59-52 (Home)
-Missouri State 52-46 (Road)
-Drake 63-61 (Road)
Last Game:
-Loss To Loyola 66-62 (Road)
Players to Watch:
---#25 Anthony Beane (JR) 
-16.3 PPG, 2.8 RPG, & 1.1 SPG.
---#14 Jordan Caroline (FR) 
-9.4 PPG & 6.3 RPG.
---#33 Sean O'Brien (SO) 
-7.9 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.8 APG, & 1.2 SPG.
---#1 Jalen Pendleton (JR)
-6.7 PPG, 3.2 RPG, & 1.1 SPG.

Prediction:
The big fella finally back! Egidijus Mockevicius, who has missed the previous two games due to a concussion, has finally been cleared to play and will suit up today in Carbondale. Trust me his clearance could not have came at a more important time for the Purple Aces as Evansville has allowed their opponents to shoot 45% without their rim protector. Are the Purple Aces now primed for a run? I think they could be since Balentine is back to scoring the ball and is shooting 50% in his last two while averaging 21 points per game. Also, the heart and soul of UE, Adam Wing, has played very well of late and has presented a third scoring option for the team. The Southern Illinois Salukis hope Evansville's scoring options are non-existent today in Carbondale. Last Saturday, SIU caused me to become speechless as they upset the Illinois State Redbirds at home. In the matchup, Salukis' star Anthony Beane dominated with a twenty-three point outing and Freshman Deion Lavender came out of no where and produced a fifteen point, seven rebound performance. The following game, Southern Illinois lost a heartbreaker up North At Loyola, but back at home today will provide an advantage. I am not saying the Salukis will win but it would not shock me if they did. Personally I believe, whichever duo, Evansville's D.J. Balentine and Egidijus Mockevicius or Southern Illinois's Anthony Beane and Deion Lavender, scores the most will bring the win to their team. Evansville really needs this win if they want any chance to catch the Indiana State Sycamores for the third seed in Arch Madness while this game is crucial for Southern Illinois since they want to avoid having to play on Thursday Night in the conference tournament. With Mockevicius back I see Beane and the Salukis meeting resistance in the lane landing them with the another loss.
---Evansville 69, Southern Illinois 64

6:00 PM EST-ESPN2
22-3 (12-1) 15. Wichita State
at 15-10 (7-6) Illinois State

22-3 (12-1) 15. Wichita State
Lunardi's Bracketology: 4 Seed
#3 Best Mid-Major According to CollegeInsider.com
Solid Wins:
-Memphis 71-56 (in Sioux Falls)
-St. Louis 81-52 (Home)
-Seton Hall 77-68 (Home)
-Alabama 53-52 (Home)
-Illinois State 70-62 (Home)
-Loyola (IL) 67-53 (Road)
-Evansville 61-41 (Road)
Losses:
-#25 Utah 69-68 in Overtime (Road)
-George Washington 60-54 in the Championship of the Diamond Head Classic.
-#18 Northern Iowa 70-54 (Road)
Last Game:
-Win Against Indiana State 74-57 (Home)
Players to Watch:
---#31 Ron Baker (JR) 
-15.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.2 APG, & 1.2 SPG.
---#12 Darius Carter (SR) 
-11.9 PPG & 5.4 RPG.
---#23 Fred Van Vleet (JR) 
-11.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 5.5 APG, & 1.8 SPG.
---#32 Tekele Cotton (SR)
-9.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.9 APG, & 1.3 SPG

15-10 (7-6) Illinois State
Solid Wins:
-Old Dominion 64-45 in the Semi-Final of Paradise Jam.
-DePaul 78-72 (Road)
-Missouri State 69-55 (Road)
-Evansville 77-51 (Home)
Conference Losses:
-Indiana State 63-61 (Home)
-#16 Wichita State 70-62 (Road)
-Indiana State 71-70 in Overtime (Road)
-#20 Northern Iowa 54-53 (Road)
-Southern Illinois 65-59 (Road) 
Last Game:
-Loss To #13 Northern Iowa 83-64 (Road)
Players to Watch:
---#3 Daishon Knight (SR) 
-14.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.3 APG, & 1.1 SPG.
---#44 DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell (JR)
-12.1 PPG & 5.5 RPG.
---#22 Reggie Lynch (SO) 
-9.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG, & 2.8 BPG.
---#4 Bobby Hunter (SR) 
-8.3 PPG & 2.3 RPG.
---#24 Deontae Hawkins (FR)
-7.3 PPG & 5.6 RPG.
---#1 Paris Lee (SO)
-6.9 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 3.8 APG, & 2.6 SPG.

Prediction:
Shockers prepared to be "shocked"...or not. Although Wichita State has lost only one game since their Diamond Head Classic Championship loss to George Washington, the Shockers have had some close calls against teams like Bradley and Drake while on the road. With that being said, I must rebuttle that Wichita State has flexed their muscles in their last two games, which include a drumming of Missouri State by the score of 78-35 win and a dominant win at home against the third best in the MVC, the Indiana State Sycamores. A very positive sign for the fifteenth ranked team in the nation is that Pre-Season All-American Point Guard Fred Van Vleet is scoring the ball and is averaging 16.8 points in his last five outings while messing around and recording a triple-double against Missouri State last Saturday. Leading scorer Ron Baker had a tough performance against the Sycamores as he was held to one for six shooting and five points. Luckily, his play did not matter as the other members of the "Fantastic Four" picked up the production and combined for fifty-four points (Van Vleet 21 pts, Carter 17 pts, & Cotton 16 pts). Even if Baker struggles tonight, if the "Fantastic Four" can score fifty-nine points combined like Wednesday, I see no trouble for them against Illinois State. The Illinois State Redbirds have really disappointed me in the last week. I really thought Illinois State was on the verge of becoming a contender that could upset Northern Iowa or Wichita State when Arch Madness comes around, but that seems not to be the case. A week ago today, Illinois State allowed the Southern Illinois Salukis to defeat them at Carbondale and the following game the Redbirds were obliterated by Northern Iowa. Now they face the notorious Wichita State Shockers who are playing great basketball right now. So what can Illinois State do to win? The Redbirds will need a big night from Senior star Daishon Knight as he is their best player and team leader. Knight was the only Illinois State player really not to struggle in Cedar Falls as he led the team with sixteen points. But not only does Knight need to have a big game in my estimation but Reggie Lynch, Illinois State's rim protector, and the defense as a collective group. If that happens, maybe...just maybe, Illinois State pulls off the upset, but I do not forsee that happening since it is very unlikely that Ron Baker has another bad game. I expect Baker to come out with a chip on his shoulder and lead his team to victory.
---Wichita State 67, Illinois State 60

February 15, 2015
2:00 PM EST-ESPN3
15-10 (5-8) Loyola (IL)
at 8-18 (3-10) Bradley

15-10 (5-8) Loyola (IL)
Solid Wins:
-Kent State 69-61 (Road)
-Texas Tech 62-44 in the Semi-Finals of the Las Vegas Classic.
-Boise State 48-45 in the Championship of the Las Vegas Classic.
-Bradley 64-49 (Home)
-Evansville 71-70 (Road)
-Missouri State 53-50 without Milton Doyle and Christian Thomas (Road) 
Single-Digit Conference Losses:
-#23 Northern Iowa 67-58 (Road)
-Southern Illinois 59-52 (Road)
-Southern Illinois 59-52 (Road)
-Evansville 65-56 (Home)
-Illinois State 48-45 (Home)
Last Game:
-Win Against Southern Illinois 66-62 (Home)
Players to Watch:
---#35 Milton Doyle (SO) (Has not played in last 7 with ankle injury.)
-11.5 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 4.2 APG, & 1.1 SPG.
---#32 Christian Thomas (SR)
-10.8 PPG & 4.0 RPG.
---#24 Montel James (JR)
-9.3 PPG & 4.3 RPG.
---#4 Devon Turk (JR)
-8.4 PPG & 2.6 RPG.
---#2 Earl Peterson (JR)
-7.7 PPG, 2.2 RPG, & 1.7 APG.

8-18 (3-10) Bradley
Solid Wins:
-Central Michigan 84-73 (Home)
-Southern Illinois 63-44 (Home)
-Missouri State 61-59 (Home)
-Evansville 56-53 (Road)
"Never Should Have Happened" Losses:
-Texas-Arlington 86-75 (Home)
-Robert Morris 68-61 (Home)
-UC Irvine 55-47 in the Semi-Final of the Las Vegas Holiday Hoops Classic.
-Arkansas-Little Rock 64-54 in the Consolation Championship of the Las Vegas Holiday Hoops Classic.
Last Game:
-Loss To Drake 60-54 (Road) 
Players to Watch:
---#2 Warren Jones (JR)
-13.9 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.0 APG, & 1.6 SPG.
---#5 Tramique Sutherland (JR)
-12.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG, & 3.0 APG.
---#4 Auston Barnes (SR) 
-10.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG, & 1.1 SPG.
---#24 Omari Grier (JR) 
-8.4 PPG & 1.9 APG.
---#21 Josh Cunningham (FR)
-7.7 PPG, 7.5 RPG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#0 Ka'Darryl Bell (JR)
-7.3 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 2.5 APG, & 1.0 SPG.

Prediction:
Play time is now over for the Bradley Braves because leading scorer Warren Jones will play in his first game this afternoon since being suspended at a strip club on a misdemeanor charge of obstruction of identifcation and criminal trespassing the morning after a team loss at home against Drake. Jones has missed the last four games as a part of his suspension and arguably the team could have won the three games they lost during the stretch, with him since Bradley was defeated by a combined fifteen points in the losses. A positive that came out of his suspension, in my opinion, is the play of Junior Tramique Sutherland. Sutherland became the team's primary scorer in Jones' absence and averaged 17.5 points per game during the span. I am absolutley positive Coach Geno Ford will welcome Jones back to the team for today's bout against Loyola. The Ramblers, who have fought to find an identity since star Milton Doyle went down with an ankle injury, have played very well of late. In the last three games, Loyola has won two needed matchups that has kept them in sixth place and currently out of the Thursday Night Arch Madness action. Possible championship run for the Ramblers if Doyle reverts to the uninjured Freshman form we all fell in love with last year? I feel like that is a possiblity especially with the way Montel James and Earl Peterson has improved their play during Doyle's time sidelined. In each player's last four games, James is averaging 14.3 points per game and 6 rebounds per contest while Peterson is averaging 12.3 points per outing and 2.8 assists per game. Loyola (IL) with James, Peterson, and Christian Thomas has an opportunity to be a team to be feared when Milton Doyle comes back but that day is not today. Due to Loyola being a team predicated on defense, I see it being very hard to stop all the weapons Bradley has that put points on the board. If the Ramblers offense can put up a lot points like they did early in the conference season with Doyle, then they can win this game, but a track meet is not really the kind of game I see them wanting to get into in Peoria.
---Bradley 63, Loyola (IL) 58

4:00 PM EST-ESPNU
23-2 (12-1) 13. Northern Iowa
at 9-16 (3-10) Missouri State

23-2 (12-1) 13. Northern Iowa
Lunardi's Bracketology: 4 Seed
Solid Wins:
-Stephen F. Austin 79-77 in Overtime (Road)
-Virginia Tech 73-54 in Semi-Final of Cancun Challenge.
-Northwestern 61-42 in Championship of Cancun Challenge.
-Iowa 56-44 (in Des Moines)
-Loyola (IL) 67-58 (Home)
-Indiana State 66-60 (Home)
-Illinois State 54-53 (Road)
-#12 Wichita State 70-54 (Home)
-Indiana State 61-51 (Road)
Losses:
-VCU 93-87 in Overtime (Road)
-Evansville 52-49 (Road)
Last Game:
-Win Against Illinois State 83-64 (Home)
Players to Watch:
---#10 Seth Tuttle (SR)
-16.0 PPG, 6.6 RPG, & 3.2 APG.
---#11 Wes Washpun (JR)
-8.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.8 APG, & 1.2 SPG.
---#1 Deon Mitchell (SR)
-6.8 PPG, 2.1 RPG, & 2.2 APG.
---#14 Nate Buss (JR)
-6.5 PPG & 2.4 RPG.

9-16 (3-10) Missouri State
Conference Wins:
-Southern Illinois 53-50 (Road)
-Drake 62-37 (Home)
-Southern Illinois 52-46 (Home)
Single-Digit Conference Losses:
-Evansville 56-54 (Home)
-Bradley 61-59 (Road)
-Loyola (IL) 53-50 (Home)
Last Game:
-Loss To Evansville 73-66 (Road)
Players to Watch:
---#30 Camyn Boone (JR)
-8.4 PPG & 5.1 RPG.
---#2 Austin Ruder (SO) 
-7.7 PPG & 2.2 RPG.
---#23 Dorrian Williams (JR) (DNP at Wichita State)
-7.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 4.7 RPG, & 1.4 SPG.
---#20 Gavin Thurman (JR)
-5.8 PPG & 2.4 RPG.

Prediction:
Will home court advantage play a big difference in today's Northern Iowa/Missouri State or are we looking at another double-digit Panthers win? The Northern Iowa Panthers have continued to dominate the Missouri Valley as last Wednesday UNI made the fourth best team in the conference, the Illinois State Redbirds, look like a bottom feeder in a 83-64. Larry Bird Player of the Year Candidate Seth Tuttle continued his Senior year in fashion as he shot nine for twelve from the field with a game-high twenty-three points to go along with five assists and five rebounds. Tuttle's Senior running mate Deon Mitchell also chipped in a very good game as the point guard had a twelve point outing. As a team the Panthers shot terrific from the field at the percentage of 53.4%. The Missouri State Bears hope the hot shooting will stay in Cedar Falls for UNI. The Bears, who were edged by the Evansville Purple Aces on Tuesday Night, have lost three of their last six games by less than ten points. A positive for Missouri State is that the "statsheet stuffer" Dorrian Williams will be back in the starting lineup today and it is at no better time since Juniors Camyn  Boone and Gavin Thurman and Freshman Chris Kendrix scored a total of forty-six points against Evansville. Maybe everything is clicking at the right time for the Missouri State Bears so they can pull off the biggest upset of the weekend on ESPNU. Just kidding! Seth Tuttle will destroy young defenders such as Kendrix and Tyler McCullough in a good team win to keep the Northern Iowa Panthers a half game ahead of Wichita State.
---Northern Iowa 67, Missouri State 50

THE ROAD TO ARCH MADNESS
It is never to early to begin looking ahead to March so here is the seedings and matchups if the 2015 Missouri Valley Conference Tournament started today.
Arch Madness if it Started Today
1. Northern Iowa 23-2 (12-1) 
2. Wichita State 22-3 (12-1)
3. Indiana State 12-13 (8-5) 
4. Illinois State 15-10 (7-6)
5. Evansville 17-8 (7-6)
6. Loyola (IL) 15-10 (5-8) 
7. Drake 8-17 (5-8)
8. Missouri State 9-16 (3-10)
9. Bradley 8-18 (3-10) 
10. Southern Illinois 10-16 (3-10) 

Thursday Night
G1: MOST vs BRAD (BRAD Won First Meeting at Carver Arena (BRAD)) 
G2: DRAKE vs SIU (DRAKE Won First Meeting at The Knapp Center (DRAKE))

Friday Afternoon
G3: UNI vs W-G1
G4: ILST vs EVAN (ILST Won First Meeting at Redbird Arena (ILST))
Friday Night
G5: INST vs LOY (INST Swept the Season Series)
G6: WSU vs W-G2

PW's Prediction Record Coming into Today: 147-54 (54-14 in the MVC)


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