Friday, December 12, 2014

PW's College Basketball Predictions for December 13

By Peyton Wesner

Thank you Washington Huskies for making me look smart for picking you over San Diego State. Who would have thought the same San Diego State team that hung around with number three ranked Arizona and Maui in addition to beating a ranked Utah Utes team would only score 36 points?! It is one thing to lose but to only score 36 points in 40 minutes of basketball at that high of level has people such as I wondering how bad can a team be? There are many games I will be watching, attending, and tracking today but three specifically that has me excited is twenty-first ranked North Carolina at number one ranked Kentucky, thirteenth ranked Utah versus tenth ranked Kansas in Kansas City, and ninth ranked Gonzaga at UCLA. Let's dive into all the great matchups today has to offer.

12:00 PM EST-CBS
6-2 21. North Carolina
at 10-0 1. Kentucky
For you "sleep in" on the weekend college basketball fans, make sure to get up for this one. At the beginning of the season, North Carolina had all the looks to be a championship contender but then they stumbled against Butler at the Battle 4 Atlantis and against Iowa in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge at Chapel Hill. Both loses were surprising to me at a glance but the way they shot in both games, 39% against Butler and 28% against Iowa, told the whole story. Also, there is currently an APB on Marcus Paige (JR) this season. He was named a preseason All-American at the start but his stat production has decreaed compared to last year. His Sophomore season was spectacular as he averaged 17.5 PPG, 3.2 RPG, and 4.2 APG but this season his stat line has decreased in all three categories (14.0 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 3.4 APG). In both losses Paige shot a terrible 27.2% from the field so duly noted is the fact that the Tar Heels play well only when the third year point guard plays his game. While Paige's averages are trending downward, Kennedy Meeks (SO) has turned into a really good player with James Michael McAdoo leaving the program for the NBA. Meeks comes into today's matchup averaging 13.8 points per game and 10.1 rebounds per game. No one should completly count UNC out because they have enough scorers to compete against the Wildcats. Kentucky and John Calipari have a different look about themselves from last year because  of the great amount of players they have. Instead of playing the starters for about 3/4 of the game and the second team for 1/4 of the game, UK this season is utilizing all their talent by platooning both sets of five. By platooning the first and second teams, all players plays about half of the game and it allows them all to play hard the whole time they are out on the floor. Kentucky has lived up to all the hype they possed at the beginning of the season as they have defeated number five ranked Kansas in the Championship Classic in Indianapolis and number six ranked Texas at Rupp Arena. I must say these games were not close contests that the Wildcats pulled out at the end, they were big blowout wins. Kentucky even defeated Kansas by 32 points...32 points! It is considered a high quality win when defeating Kansas by one point but a victory of that margin showed Kentucky to be a team to be reckoned with. One player that has really improved for Kentucky this season is Willie Cauley-Stein. Cauley-Stein walked onto campus and immediately started as a Freshman with Alex Poythress. His freshman season helped his draft stock as he averaged 8.3 points per game, 6.2 rebounds per game, and 2.1 blocks per game but his stock fell the following season with the influx of Freshman now Sophomores that came in. This season the 7' foot Junior from Olathe, Kansas is off to his best season with a points per game average of 10.3 and a rebound average of 6.9. The North Carolina/Kentucky matchup is an annual matchup that alternates locations from Chapel Hill and Lexington. Last season at the Dean E. Smith Center, the game featured three players that went on to the NBA (Julius Randle (LAL), James Young (BOS), and James Michael McAdoo). The game was back and forth but eventually the Tar Heels prevailed at home by the score of 82-77. Today the 'Cats want revenge. My key of the game for North Carolina is for Marcus Paige to get off to a good start. Like I previously mentioned UNC goes when Paige goes and for a win today in a hostile environment Paige will have to have a really good game. For Kentucky, the Wildcats need to keep on doing what they have been doing and that is play fast and tire their opponents early in the contest. My One on One matchup to watch is UNC's Brice Johnson (JR) versus UK's Willie Cauley-Stein (JR). Amazingly Johnson is actually averaging more points per game (11.7 PPG) and rebounds per game (7.4 RPG) than Cauley-Stein in less minutes played. It should be a great battle down low between these two big men.
---Kentucky 70, North Carolina 58

2:05 PM EST
5-4 Murray State
at 7-1 Evansville
Part two of the Ohio Valley Conference Tour for the Evansville Purple Aces is today as they host a potential OVC conference champion in the Murray State Racers. This season Evansville is the team off to the races as they took third in the Gulf Coast Showcase and defeated the Craig Bradshawless-Belmont Bruins in Nashville by the score of 65-62 last Tuesday. Evansville has one of the best scorers in the country in D.J. Balentine (JR) and one of the best rebounders in the Missouri Valley Conference in Egidijus Mockevicius (JR). Balentine averaged 22.8 PPG last season and is already averaging 20.5 PPG coming in. Against Belmont, Balentine hit key baskets in the second half to keep the Purple Aces ahead of Belmont when the momentum was looking to change. He totaled 23 points in the contest and looks to do more of the same against today's opponent, the Murray State Racers. Murray State's season has started off less than ideal to say the least. Their opener was dropped to the Houston Cougars of the American Conference. The Racers were up four at halftime but could not sink either three point attempt to tie the game down three. Ten days later the Racers hit a skid with back-to-back-to-back loses at the hands of Xavier, Portland, and Valparaiso. The Racers are jockied by Cameron Payne (SO) who is having another great season in his second year in Murray. Payne is averaging 17.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG, and 4.9 APG as he does it all for the Racers. The young stud has had such a great start to his career that some think he may be better than the great Isaiah Cannan, who is now playing for the Houston Rockets, since he scored more in his Freshman season than the point guard that originally put Murray State basketball back on the map did. Today instead of one matchup to watch I have two. My first one on one matchup is between the two scorers: Murray State's Cameron Payne and Evansville's D.J. Balentine. Both are really good at putting the ball in hole and were in the early stages of their respective careers. Another pair to watch closely is MSU's Jarvis Williams (SR) versus UE's Egidijus Mockevicius (JR). These two players will be doing the dirty work for their individual teams and whoever grabs the most rebounds will help their team the most. Williams comes into today averaging 8 RPG while the big man in the middle from Lithuania, Mockevicius, pulls down 9.5 RPG. My key of the game for Murray State is for Payne and fellow scorer Jarvis Williams (SR) to dominate at both ends of the court. I figure they needs about 42 points to bring the win back to Kentucky. For Evansville, like against Belmont, Mockevicius must stay out of foul trouble because if he off the court Williams will rule the post. This is by for the best game today between mid-majors and whichever combo scores the most will lead their team to victory.
---Evansville 72, Murray State 67  

3:15 PM EST-ESPN
7-1 13. Utah
7-1 10. Kansas
In Kansas City, Missouri
I doubt anyone really payed attention to Utah's matchup Wednesday night but to hold BYU to 61 points when they average 91 per game impressed me greatly. Also they held the Cougars to a shooting percentage of 36.9% and caused star scorer Tyler Haws to shoot 9 of 22 from the field. Now that is how to play defense! Utah has already upset one team this season in Wichita State and came close to defeating Steve Fisher's San Diego State club in California. The Utes are led by Senior stat sheet stuffer, Delon Wright, who averages 15.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG, and 4.9 APG. After Kansas' loss against Kentucky at Bankers Life Fieldhouse as a part of the Champions Classic by a whopping 32 points, analysts wondered if the young Jayhawks were a legitimate title contender. I think they have answered the call and have shown they are a contender as they beat twentieth ranked Michigan State in the championship of the Orlando Classic, Florida as a part of the SEC/Big 12 Challenge, and Georgetown in Washington D.C. Wednesday. Kansas features a plethora of young talent such as Perry Ellis (JR), Frank Mason III (SO), Wayne Seldon Jr. (SO), and Cliff Alexander (FR). My key for Utah this afternoon is to turnover Kansas' guards. With their defense it should be easy and shown in the past games' stats is the fact that when the Kansas guards turnover the ball the team plays poorly and cannot compete. Turnovers happened in the second half against Kentucky (outscored 34-12) and the first half against Florida (outscored 39-24), Kansas' worst two halves of basketball this season. My keys for Kansas include getting the crowd into the game and feeding Perry Ellis. The game is in Kansas City, which is a place with a lot of Jayhawks fans so despite it being "neutral" it really isn't because Lawrence is only a short 45 minute drive from the Sprint Center. Now for Perry Ellis, he has to be the go-to scorer going forward this season if they want to win games like this. Ellis has averaged 13 PPG in his last three and must have more than that to get the job done this afternoon
---Utah 65, Kansas 62

5:15 PM EST
6-3 Michigan
at 9-0 2. Arizona
Congratulations Michigan, you did it! I do not know how but the Wolverines lost to N.J.I.T. (New Jersey Institute of Technology) and Eastern Michigan in Ann Arbor making the basketball world question how bad they really are. How? Well N.J.I.T beat Michigan by having the best shooting performance of their season by draining 58.7% of their shots and Eastern Michigan beat Michigan, who is a very good team and will contend for the conference championship in the MAC, because the Wolverines shot 32.6% and allowed the Eagles to turn the game into a low scoring affair. The ironic part for Michigan is that the son of former University of Michigan player Michael Talley played well for Eastern Michigan. Talley (father) played for Michigan between 1990-1993 and saw his playing time diminish significantly when the "Fab Five" came to town. Michael Talley (son) is a Senior for Eastern Michigan and scored nine points while dishing out six assists leading his team to victory against his dad's former team. How cool is that? Michigan seems out of sorts after the two losses and it does not help them that their next game with the attempt to break the skid is against number three ranked Arizona. The Wildcats are coming into this afternoon's game undefeated. Arizona has a team full of depth led by the three-headed monster of Stanley Johnson (FR), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (SO), and Brandon Ashley (JR). All three players average double-digits while rebounding the ball off the glass very well. Last Saturday, ninth ranked Gonzaga nearly pulled off the upset as they had a 60-56 lead with 2:34 left in the second half. The Zags even had two chances at the end of the game but Gary Bell Jr. (SR) and Kyle Wiltjer (JR) shots rimmed out sending the game to overtime with the score 60-60. Overtime was T.J. McConnell's (SR) time to shine as he scored all six of Arizona's points. Gonzaga's Byron Wesley had a chance to tie the game with 3.3 seconds left but missed the first two of three free throws unintentionally and then intentionally missed the last. Arizona came down with the rebound and won the game. Tonight Arizona could be challenged by the guard forward combo of Caris LeVert (JR) and Zak Irvin (SO). My key of the game for Michigan is to get the duo scoring. Arizona has so many options to score that the only way for the Wolverines to pull out the win is by outscoring them and the only way for them to do it is through LeVert and Irvin. For Arizona, play solid defense. The crowd in Tuscon will play a factor by bringing the noise and if the pressure is there Michigan could have an even tougher time pulling off the upset at 5:15 Eastern.
---Arizona 69, Michigan 57

7:00 PM EST-NBC Sports Network
9-0 23. Northern Iowa
at 5-3 VCU
Will one of the remaining undefeated teams go down tonight in Richmond? It is definitely possible against VCU. The Northern Iowa Panthers are back in the top twenty-five for the first time since 2010 when they upset the number one ranked Kansas Jayhawks at the Edwards Jones Dome in St. Louis in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. Of course there are no players curently on UNI from that team but the group of guys theg have now does have some experience as they returned all five players from last year's starting lineup. The Panthers are led by All-MVC Center Seth Tuttle. Tuttle has received starter minutes ever since he stepped on campus in Cedar Falls as this year he is having another great season by averaging 15.9 PPG, 6.4 RPG, and 2.6 APG. So far Northern Iowa has defeated two teams from power six conferences, Virginia Tech and Northwestern, in the Cancun Challenge. In addition to the wins in Cancun, UNI went into Nacogdoches, Texas, and defeated last year's Cinderella Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 79-77. Their victory snapped SFA's 34-game home winning streak and was the first time someone beat Stephen F. Austin in their gym since the 2011-2012 season. With this being said, I doubt UNI will be rattled when they meet up with VCU in their gym. The Rams started off the season very well with a 85-69 win over Josh Richardson (SR) and Tennessee who made it to the Sweet Sixteen. The problem for Virginia Commonwealth is that since opening night things have been shaky. The loses against number twelve ranked Villanova and number seven ranked Virginia I can understand but losing to Old Dominion is unexcusable for a team of their talent. Leading the pack for VCU, is Treveon Graham (SR) and Melvin Johnson (JR) who both come into tonight averaging seventeen points per game. For VCU to beat a defensivly sound Northern Iowa team, point guard Briante Weber must get both scorers involved so they do their thing and put points on the board. Also, Weber must continue to cause "Havoc" on opposing team's guards and initiate the pressure as he is by far their best defender. For Northern Iowa, the key has to be playing solid defense. The defense starts with Seth Tuttle (SR) and Wes Washpun (JR). These two players need to not just play good basketball on one side of the court but both for the Panthers to move on to 10-0.
---VCU 70, Northern Iowa 64

8:00 PM EST-ESPN2
4-4 Florida State
at 25. 9-1 Notre Dame
Wow! Another Florida State and Notre Dame game but this time in South Bend. Yes! I wonder who will play better Jamis Winston or Everett Golson. Huh? This is basketball? Well that sucks, but at least it is an ACC Conference Game. Florida State's basketball team is definitely not as good as their football team as they have already lost four games this season, more than the last three seasons of Seminole football combined. Florida State lost to CAA school, Northeastern in the second game of the year by three in Tallahassee. This loss started a three game skid that saw the Seminoles get speared by 26 by Providence and defeated by 6 by Massachusetts in the Hall Of Fame Tip-Off Classic. That was truly an ugly span of two days for Florida State. The team that took second in the Hall Of Fame Tip-Off Classic is the Seminoles opponent tonight, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Notre Dame lost the Championship game against the Providence Friars as LaDontae Henton (SR) played one of the best games of his career by scoring 38 of Providence's 75 points in a 75-74 win. The Fighting Irish's star Jerian Grant (SR) had a chance at the end to win it but his potential game winning layup with blocked and Pat Connaughton's (SR) jumper was off the mark giving the Friars the win. The only positive fact about the loss is that since, Notre Dame has been on a roll and has won every game including their game in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge against number nineteen ranked Michigan State. My key of the game for Florida State is to get a time machine and make sure Aaron Thomas (JR) does not do whatever he did to get suspended for the remainder of his Junior season. Thomas was the Seminoles leading scorer with 14.8 points per game and was suspended last night for "unacademic reasons." But in allseriousness  Florida State needs to shut down Jerian Grant for any chance to win tonight. Grant is by far Notre Dame's best player as he is averaging 19 PPG. For Notre Dame, the key is to get everyone involved. The Fighting Irish have so many scorers like Grant (SR, 19 PPG), Auguste (JR, 14.1 PPG), Connaughton (SR, 13.1 PPG), Jackson (SO, 12.8 PPG), and Vasturia (SO, 9.1 PPG), that there is no way for Florida State to outscore them.
---Notre Dame 82, Florida State 55

10:00 PM EST-ESPN2
8-1 9. Gonzaga
at 8-2 UCLA
The Gonzaga Bulldogs do not just look like one of the best teams on the West coast but in the country. The Bulldogs already have two quality wins: one at home against then ranked twenty-second ranked SMU and another at Madison Square Garden in the NIT Season Tip-Off Championship against St. John's. Their only loss of the season came against current undefeated and third ranked team in the nation, the Arizona Wildcats. The Zags were actually up on Arizona by four with 2:34 left in the second half but the Wildcats came came back from a four point decicit with 2:34 left in the second half of the game. At the end of regulation, Zaga had two chances to win the game but both Gary Bell Jr. (SR) and Kyle Wiltjer's (JR) shots rimmed out sending the game into overtime. In overtime, Arizona's T.J. McConnell (SR) took over the game and gave the Wildcats a 66-63 lead. It all came down to three free throws by Byron Wesley (SR) with the chance to tie the game. The first shot by Wesley was off and now the opportunity to tie it up with gone. The next was also missed and the third was intentionally missed...Arizona came down with the rebound and the win. The upset was avoided. I believe the reason the Bulldogs are so good so early in the season is that their players are very experienced. For most college basketball fans, the names Kyle Wiltjer, Gary Bell Jr., and Kevin Pangos (SR) have been around forever since they actually stayed in college for more than one year and some for all four years. Tonight UCLA is looking to make Gonzaga's experience seem overated and defeat them at Pauly Pavillion. UCLA has had a solid season but every game the Bruins play against a tough opponent they crumble underneath the pressure. In the Battle 4 Atlantis, UCLA went into the tournament ranked twenty-second but came out not ranked at all. On Thanksgiving, UCLA lost by ten to Oklahoma and the next day by twenty two against number five ranked North Carolina. All other victories have been against small competition in very winnable matchups. A thing I really like about the Bruins is their starting five's scoring power but their bench is one of the weakest in the country. My key of the game for Gonzaga is to play good defense and put pressure on the coach's son, Bryce Alford (SO). Alford is currently averaging 17.5 PPG and 7.1 APG but I believe that Kevin Pangos and the Bulldogs defense will slow down his production tonight. For UCLA, the key is for everyone to score. Even the littlest production from the bench, would help the boys from L.A. have a better chance to pull of the upset. I think Gonzaga's bench production will be too much and that the Bruins will once again not be able to correl a victory against another top ten team.
---Gonzaga 70, UCLA 63

CBK RECORD: 12-7

No comments:

Post a Comment