Sunday, December 7, 2014

PW's College Basketball Predictions (Week of December 7)

By Peyton Wesner

Wasn't yesterday a exciting day of College Basketball. We had a top 25 matchup between ninth ranked Gonzaga and third ranked Arizona and two unexpected upsets. Arizona survived the Zags in Tuscon by three points as it was a battle of a matchup seen in the Round of 32 last season. But before the game in Arizona even tipped off, two surprises happened in the college basketball world. The first happened in Ann Arbor, which was where the New Jersey Institute of Technology, yes, the New Jersey Institute of Technology achieved the biggest win in their basketball team's existence by upseting the Michigan Wolverines who were ranked seventeenth. Then, before the Zaga/UA game started the Green Bay Phoenix led by Keifer Sykes (SR) went into Coral Gables, Florida, and upset the fifthteenth ranked Miami (FL) Hurricanes as "The U" could not hit a basket to save their lives. Anyone ready to be shocked again?

Sunday's Games (12-7-14)
5:00 PM EST-ESPNU
6-1 18. Arkansas
at 4-3 Clemson
Arkansas got off to a hot start to begin the 2014-2015 season but dropped their first game last Thursday in the SEC/Big-12 Challenge against Georges Niang (JR) and number twenty ranked Iowa State in Ames, Iowa. The Razorbacks are an offensive team that average the fifth most points per game in the country with 88.1. Also, Arkansas is a unselfish team that has the most assists this season. Clemson is basically the opposite of Arkansas. The Tigers are a team based on defense that is struggling to score since leading scorer, K.J. McDaniels, left for the NBA last season and is currently averaging double-digit points per game for the Philadelphia Sixers. Clemson's last game was a loss against Rutgers in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge by the score of 69-64. Tonight, the game will be close but Arkansas will pull away at the end and move to 7-1 on the year
---Arkansas 78, Clemson 74

9:00 PM EST-PAC-12 Network
6-1 13. San Diego State
at 6-0 Washington
Both of these teams have had much success to start the season. San Diego State played great in the Maui Invitational but ended up losing to the number three ranked Arizona Wildcats in a game that came down to the wire while the Huskies won the Wooden Legacy in Anaheim, California. Like the Arkansas/Clemson matchup, both team's identities could not be more difference. Washington is known for their scorers while the Aztecs are more of a "grind it out", defensive team that keeps their opponents from putting up points. My player to watch on UW is Nigel Williams-Goss (SO). Williams-Goss is one of the best Sophomores in the game and is a statsheet stuffer. He averaged 13.4 PPG as a Freshman and has raised it to 14.7 PPG while grabbing 5.5 rebounds per game and dishing 7.5 assists per game. He truly does it all. San Diego State is full of lanky small forwards and two of them are Winston Shepard and Dwyane Polee II. These two players both average double figures in points and can stop good offensive players from scoring. Washington will have home court advantage in the game but the Aztecs have played in loud, tough evironments. San Diego State does not have a go to scorer to rely on like Washington does. 
---Washington 65, San Diego State 63

Monday's Game (12-8-14)
7:00 PM EST
8-2 Yale
at 3-4 Florida
How many people think Yale will pull off back-to-back upsets against 2014 NCAA Final Four teams? Surprisingly, many analysts think that Yale can go into Gainsville and beat the Gators. Let's relax please, Yale will not beat Florida tonight but before I reveal my keys of the game, here is the rundown on both teams so far. The Bulldogs from the Ivy League school of Yale has a shot to keep the Harvard Crimson, 2014-2015 Ivy League Preseason Poll Predicted Champion, from winning the Ivy League for the first time since 2010-2011 when the Princeton Tigers won a deciding tiebreaker game on a neutral floor. Yale is led by the combo of Javier Duren (SR) and Justin Sears (JR) or "Double J" as I call them. The season started off less than idealy for the Bulldogs as they loss in a close, back and forth, double overtime game against Quinipiac on the road. Since opening night, they have won eight of their last nine with their only loss coming against the Providence Friars on the road. Of course, I am positive everyone knows who Yale beat Friday on a game-winning three pointer by Jack Montague (JR) (first made field goal of the game) on the road and I must say it was an impressive win against the 2014 National Champions, Connecticut. One thing to remember about this year's Connecticut team is that Shabazz Napier and DeAndre Daniels, last year's team's best two players, are playing professionally, Napier with Miami and Daniels overseas. My point is Yale would not have beat last year's UConn team and I do not care how bad Florida has looked this year, they will not lose tonight. The Gators had high hopes this season and shown by the team that beat them in the Final Four last year, UConn, anything can happen if a team gets into the tournament so right now the season is far from being lost. U of F started out ranked seventh in the AP poll but then upset happened. On November 17, Florida lost to in-state rival Miami (FL) in Gainsville as the Gators squandered a 15 point lead. The win propelled Miami to being ranked and getting their season off to a sensational start. "One loss isn't bad, right, just shake it off." The Gators did not shake it off as their quarterfinal in the Battle 4 Atlantis ended in another heartbreak this time in overtime at the hands of Georgetown. Two days later, Florida dropped their third game of the season in the 5th place game against then ranked fifth North Carolina. The schedule did not get any easier for Florida as after the Battle 4 Atlantis, Billy Donovan led his team into Allen Fieldhouse to face the eleventh ranked Kansas Jayhawks, who were coming off an Orlando Classic championship at ESPN's Wide World of Sports. Florida got off to a great start and had a 39-24 lead going into halftime. Once again like against Miami (FL), Florida gave up the big lead and Kansas outscored the Gators 47-26 behind Wayne Seldon Jr.'s (SO) best performance of the season (21 points). So what should we expect from them tonight? Well I expect the "Gainsville Gang" behind Michael Frazier III (JR), to have a big win and shut up their critics. My key of the game for Yale is to keep the game low scoring. Holding Connecticut to two for eleven from behind the arc was very important in their victory. Yale will not be able to outscore Florida, so they need to turn it into a low possession game, which will ultimatley cause the score to be low. For Florida, the Gators need to use their SEC strength and size against an Ivy League school. If I were Coach Billy Donovan, I would call for a pick and roll with Frazier III and Horford on the first possession of the game to assert the tempo. Florida will win this game! The skid stops now!
---Florida 77, Yale 62

Tuesday Night (12-9-14)
8:00 PM EST
6-1 Evansville
at 7-1 Belmont
This is truly the best game no one will see on National TV in my opinion. Belmont has been a successful mid-major for the last decade. They were the team to beat in the Atlantic-Sun Conference for what seemed like forever but then decided to move up in conference size after the 2011-2012 season to the Ohio Valley Conference, which features Murray State and Eastern Kentucky. Their first year in the OVC, the Bruins, led by current Utah Jazz player Ian Clark, stole the NCAA Tournament birth from Murray State. This year, Belmont dropped their opener at Wright State but since then they have reeled off seven straight wins. Trust me, there is a legitimate chance that Belmont will be the team we are all complaining about busting our bracket in March. Evansville's last NCAA Tournament appearance was in 1999 but since then Belmont has been to six NCAA Tournaments. The Evansville Purple Aces are from the Missouri Valley, which this year features eleventh ranked Wichita State and twenty-third ranked Northern Iowa. It would be tough for UE to come out of "The Valley" but so far they have played well. Their only loss came against the Green Bay Phoenix, another good mid-major team with a scorer by the name of Keifer Sykes (SR), at the Gulf Coast Showcase. Since then, Evansville has rebounded nicely with wins against San Francisco and Wright State. My one on one matchup of the game is Evansville's D.J. Balentine (JR) versus Belmont's Craig Bradshaw (JR). The cool thing about both players is that they decided to play basketball for a University in their home state rather than travel far away. Besides the connection to their respective states, both are big-time scorers. Balentine was a top-ten scorer in the country last year with an average of 22.8 points per game and is currently averaging 19.9 per game this season. Bradshaw did not have the season Balentine had last year but he did average a solid 15.7 points per game. So far Bradshaw is averaging 21.3 points per game this season, which is good enough for thirteenth among the country's leaders. My key of the game for both teams is to get their scorer involved. Both Balentine and Bradshaw can catch fire quicker than the blink of an eye as after one made shot they are deadly. Another key for Evansville is for Egidijus Mockevicius (JR) to stay out of foul trouble. If the big 6-10 Lithuanian can do that he will be available to do what he does best: rim protect and rebound. For the Bruins, the key is to shut down Balentine. Now I know you are probably wondering why isn't shut down Bradshaw a key for UE. Well, it could be considered one but in my opinion Belmont has a pair of Sophomore studs in Evan Bradds (SO) and Taylor Barnette (SO), who can both also score the basketball and come in averaging 13 points per game. Even if Bradshaw is shut down, Evansville will still have their hands full guarding Bradds and Barnette. Evansville has Balentine and Mockevicius...that's it. Really, Mockevicius cannot be depended on hitting anything outside the paint. Shut down Balentine, Belmont, and you will walk out of Curb Event Center with a very impressive win.
---Belmont 70, Evansville 67

Wednesday Night (12-10-12)
7:00 PM EST-FOX SPORTS 1
6-1 10. Kansas
5-2 Georgetown
Kansas survived by rallying at Allen Fieldhouse last Friday but tonight they meet a different beast in the Georgetown Hoyas. Kansas has already won a title technically this season by beating ranked Michigan State in Orlando at ESPN's Wide World of Sports. The maturity of the Jayhawks was shown in the tourney as they erased from their memory one of the worst losses in school history less than two weeks earlier against number one ranked Kentucky at the Champions Classic. A concern for Kansas is that after their championship game in Orlando they played their second worst half of basketball in the first half against the struggling Florida Gators in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. The Jayhawks turned over the ball nine times in the first twenty minutes of basketball, which was one more than the number of field goals they made. Coach Bill Self rallied the troops at halftime and erased a fifteen point deficit by outscoring Florida 47-26 behind twenty one points from Sophomore guard, Wayne Selden Jr. One difference between tonight and last Friday is that home court advantage is not in KU's favor but rather in D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera (JR) and Georgetown's. The Hoyas are a team with high expectations after a disappointing season that ended with a disappointing record of 18-15 and not an NCAA Tournament berth but rather a spot in the NIT. Rivera is back after a Sophomore season in which he averaged 17.6 PPG, 5 RPG, and 2.7 APG. Instead of winning their preseason tournament like their opposition, Georgetown took fourth in the Battle 4 Atlantis, which featured three of four ranked teams going into the tournament being upset in the quarterfinals. Georgetown did the upsetting on Thanksgiving by Smith-Rivera hitting a jumper with 3 seconds left to give the Hoyas a one point lead over the Gators. Florida rushed the ball up court but the potential game winner was off the mark. Georgetown 66, Florida 65. The next team standing in the way of the Hoyas and the Battle 4 Atlantis crown next was number two ranked Wisconsin. The game was back and forth and at some points during the second half it looked as if Georgetown was going to pull of their second straight upset in two days. I mean in any game D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera scores 29 points, one would assume the Hoyas won. He needed 32 points to get the job done on that day as his last three point field goal attempt bounced of the rim to keep the Badgers undefeated and moving them to the championship game. The next day they lost to second year Big East rival, Butler, in the third place game. So what should we expect tonight? Expect Smith-Rivera to try get his offense going quick against the young guards of Kansas. Tonight the Jayhawks will roll into the Verizon Center one man short as Jamari Taylor (JR) was arrested last weekend for interfering with a police officer and is suspended for tonight's game. Kansas would not have minded his presence on the court tonight against Georgetown who is looking hungry for another win against a ranked opponent. My key of the game for Kansas is to stop Smith-Rivera. In games against ranked opponents so far this season, he is averaging 23 points per game and almost single-handedly defeated the second best team in the nation. For Georgetown, I have said it before and I will most likely say it again after tonight, turn over the Jayhawks guards! Kansas cannot score if they cannot get the ball past the three point arc. The Hoyas need to put pressure on Kansas and cause Wayne Selden Jr. (SO) and Frank Mason III (SO) to make young guard passes that can be taken to the bucket at the other end for easy points.
---Kansas 69, Georgetown 63

9:00 PM EST-ESPNU
6-1 13. Utah
7-2 BYU
This is the game I am really looking forward to tonight. It features the team that scores the most points per game in the country and a top 30 team in opponent points allowed. Utah just pulled off one of the biggest "upsets" (although I predicted Utah to win easily) of the season by snapping number eight ranked Wichita State's 35-game regular season win streak last Tuesday in Salt Lake City. The game was close throughout but personally I believe the team's defense on Preseason All-American Fred Van Vleet (JR) was the difference. Van Vleet played 41 of the game's 45 minutes and Utah's defense caused him to shoot 5 for 19 from the field while even tiring him out at the free throw line where he shot 2 for 10. In my three years of covering Wichita State men's hoops and Fred Van Vleet, I can honestly say that was the worst game of his career. Yes, he has scored less in a game but to shoot that poorly from the field as well as from the charity stripe. Yikes! Anyway, Utah contesting all of his shots was the key to their victory as Van Vleet ended up missing the front end of a one-and-one with seven seconds left in overtime, which could have gave the Shockers a one point lead. The win jumped the Utes up in the poll but to keep "moving on up" they need to bring the defensive intensity to BYU and Senior scorer, Tyler Haws. Haws has arguably been better than former BYU scorer Jimmer Fredette as he has averaged twenty points all three years of his career. Despite BYU averaging a stunning 94.6 PPG, they have been outscored in two games this season by fifteenth ranked San Diego State in double overtime and Purdue in single overtime. So it can be done. Luckily for BYU both losses happened off the mainland while at the Maui Invitational in Hawaii. Utah has also played San Diego State but the Aztecs survived in a low scoring 53-49 game in Salt Lake City. So the main question is can Utah's D stop yet another great team from scoring? I personally think not. Tyler Haws is elite and his teammates Chase Fischer (JR) and Kyle Collinsworth (JR) are also good players. I like the Utes and think they are for real but I cannot draw myself to go against Tyler Haws in his senior season.
---BYU 70, Utah 63

Friday's Games
8:06 PM EST-Big Ten Network
6-1 14. Iowa State
at 8-2 Iowa
Everyone in Iowa, stop what you are doing and tune into Big Ten Network at 7 PM central time! Tonight is the battle between the Iowa rivals as the 8-2 Iowa Hawkeyes host the 6-1 Iowa State Cyclones. The Cyclones have had the best season of the two so far. Iowa State is led by Georges Niang (JR) and UNLV transfer Bryce Dejean-Jones (SR). The reason behind Iowa State's success can be pinpointed to their team's depth since those boys from Ames have a multitude of scorers around Niang and Dejean-Jones for the rare occurance of their struggle. The Cyclones already have a resumé quality win against then eighteenth ranked Arkansas as a part of the SEC/Big 12 Challenge but have been upset once. The loss on November 25 in the CBE Classic Championship game should not have happened in my opinion. My explanation behind Iowa State having no excuse losing the game is based on the fact that it was played in Kansas City, Missouri! Kansas City is a place where Iowa State is known for drawing big crowds for the Big 12 Conference Tournament held there annually. Home court was practically in their favor. Even Maryland's coach was quoted asking his coaching assistants before the game if they should forfiet! Now, I am sorry if I sound harsh, I really like Niang and what the Cyclones are as a team and I think they can go far again in March, but I just have yet to wrap my head around the loss. Besides the loss against Maryland, Iowa State has played spotless and I look forward to seeing how they play tonight against their rivals. The Hawkeyes suffered a big blow after the 2013-2014 season as star player and leading scorer Roy Deven Marble graduated and is now playing in the NBA for the Orlando Magic. Despite Iowa losing their best player, they still have another great player in Senior leader Aaron White. A spectacular stat about White is that he has averaged double figures in every season of his career. That is a good ball player! White goes into battle with Junior Jarrod Uthoff who has played nicely in the absence of Marble. The Hawkeyes have gotten off to a good start but they would like to forget the 2K Classic experience where they dropped two games in two days against then tenth ranked Texas and twenty-third ranked Syracuse. Iowa later went in to have a great win against number twelve ranked North Carolina at Chapel Hill. I thought it was almost impossible to go to UNC and win, but evidently not. To get the job done, unexpected scoring came from guard Mike Gesell who had a game high sixteen points, ten more than his points per game average. His big performance contributed greatly and helped push Iowa to a 60-55 victory. My key of tonight's game for Iowa State is to get Niang and the other scorers hitting baskets early. Unfortunately, for the Cyclones second leading scorer Bryce Dejean-Jones (SR) will serve a one game suspension tonight leaving Iowa State with one less scorer on the floor. Luckily for Iowa they have enough scorers to fill in for his production but nevertheless his absence will make the game closer in margin. For Iowa, the key is to stop Iowa State's scoring and turn tonight into a low scoring and low possession ball game. Iowa State averages 83.6 points per game while Iowa holds opponents to 54.9 points per game so like Wednesday night's BYU/Utah matchup I am very excited to watch tonight and like Wednesday I will go with the offensive team to pull of the win.
---Iowa State 69, Iowa 62

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