Sunday, December 21, 2014

PW's NFL Picks (Week 16)

By Peyton Wesner

1:00 PM EST-FOX
6-8 Minnesota Vikings
at 7-7 Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins were once 5-3 and looking as if they were going to make the playoffs. Now they are 7-7 and have the slimest chance to make the postseason as a wildcard. One stat tells it all in my opinion, points allowed in their last four losses...32 PPG. Miami does not have an offense that can put up points at will like Denver or Green Bay. To win this afternoon, the Dolphins will need to put pressure on Rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and initiate turnovers. Bridgewater has really surprised me this season. Coming out of Louisville as a Junior, made me apprehensive to draft him because I thought he should have stayed for his Senior season. Despite my thought then, I am very glad to see he is playing well. But to win this afternoon he must make smart throws. In the five wins the Vikings have won with him starting, Bridgewater has only thrown one interception total, in the five losses, he has thrown nine interceptions total, that is almost an average of two per game. Overall Minnesota has exceeded my expectations this season as I only had them winning four games and with a win today they will have a chance to break .500 for the season, which would be a big stride the right direction.
---Miami 27, Minnesota 20

1:00 PM EST-CBS
9-5 Baltimore Ravens
at 7-7 Houston Texans

The hometown kid is back! Case Keenum (University of Houston) was signed of the St. Louis Rams practice squad Monday by the team that traded him early in the season, the Houston Texans. Houston hashad a hard time keeping their quarterbacks healthy this season as this will be the fourth QB to take a snap this season. The Texans started out the season with Ryan Fitzpatrick behind center but then decided to turn it over to former New England Patroits back-up, Ryan Mallet in Week 11 against Cleveland. Mallet played very well in the "Dog Pound" as he led the Texans to a 23-7 victory. The next week Mallet and Houston was defeated by Cincinnati 22-13. The Texans lost more than just a game that Sunday as Mallet suffered a season ending chest injury. Fitzpatrick was then given a second chance to play and was playing until last week in the second quarter at Lucas Oil Stadium, Ryan Fitzpatrick hurt his left leg causing his back-up, Rookie from Pittsburgh, Tom Savage, to play the rest of the game. The Texans went on to lose 17-10 to Andrew Luck's Colts and  Savage hurt his knee. Will Keenum be able to perform without getting hurt today unlike his predecessors? Unlike Houston, the Ravens have a great chance to make the Playoffs, but they must win today. Behind Joe Flacco, Baltimore has beaten New Orleans, Jacksonville, and Miami. My key of the game for the Ravens is to protect Flacco and give him time to operate in the pocket. The Texans have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL, and if Baltimore's blockers cannot contain J.J. Watt, then the Texans will have a field day. For Houston to win, Arian Foster will need to have a big game on the ground. Everyone knows including the Ravens that Keenum will rely on Foster for most of the yards today. My concern is will Foster be able to find the gaps and holes to progress the ball down field.
---Baltimore 23, Houston 20

1:00 PM EST-FOX
5-9 Atlanta Falcons
at 6-8 New Orleans Saints

The Battle of the NFC South commenses this week at the Superdome. The scenerio is fairly simple if New Orleans wins they clinch the division, if Atlanta and Carolina wins the Saints are out of playoff contention. New Orleans has played very poorly at times this year which is surprising from a team led by Coach Sean Payton and Pro Bowl Quarterback Drew Brees. Half of the Saints losses have be in games decided by one possesion or less, even the loss at Atlanta in Week 1. Although, lossing five straight games the Falcons have stayed alive in the weakest division in football thanks to their offense which ranks fifth in passing yards per game with 286.1. An improvement for Atlanta compared to last season is that Quarterback Matt Ryan has avoided interceptions more. Last season, it seemed like every time the Falcons were driving down field to rally in the fourth quarter, Ryan threw an interception that ended the game. Despite having a top five passing offense, the Falcons do not have more than the Saints, which rank  third in the NFL with 301.8 passing yards per game. What is the difference between 15 yards? The difference is between a win and a loss. Both teams have mediocre defenses as the Falcons allow the most passing yards in the league while the Saints allow the 6th most. The only difference between the two offenses is that the Saints have a half-way decent running game with Mark Ingram. Ingram has shown spurts of the talent he had with Alabama in college this season as he has seven touchdowns coming into today. This game is going to be a shootout, high-scoring affair with the team scoring the most points bringing home the win. 
---New Orleans 38, Atlanta 34
 

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