Monday, December 29, 2014

PW's NFL Week 17 Predictions

By Peyton Wesner

Is there anything better than a Week 17 in the NFL? Think about it for a moment. It is the only week all 32 are playing on Sunday and a bonus is that all teams play a division rival. Although the majority of who's in and out of the Playoffs has been decided, seeds, byes, division crowns and the sixth seed in the AFC will be decided today.

1:00 PM EST-CBS
7-8 Cleveland Browns
at 9-6 Baltimore Ravens

Looking back at the first sixteen weeks of this NFL Season, Week 13 really hurt both teams' chances of making the Playoffs this season. The Cleveland Browns were 7-4 and is the mix of an AFC North Division crown going into a Week 13 matchup with the Buffalo Bills. Much speculation was swirling around the organization on whether to start Rookie Johnny Manziel or to stick with the struggling veteran, Brian Hoyer. For the Bills' game, the Browns started Hoyer over the Rookie from Texas A&M and early on it proved to be the right decision as Cleveland took a 3-0 lead. Later though, the game turned ugly for the Browns as Buffalo scored twenty unanswered points to take a 20-3 lead. The game was "over", which called for Johnny Manziel to get into the action. Manziel would drive the Browns down the field for his first career NFL touchdown on a ten yard rush. The Bills then tacked on two more Dan Carpenter field goals to end the game with the score of 26-10. The loss against Buffalo sent Cleveland into a tailspin that saw them be defeated 25-24 by a fourteen-point Colts comeback, shutout 30-0 to their in-state rival Cincinnati in Johnny Manziel's first career start, and edged 17-13 by Carolina in a game that saw Manziel pull a hamstring and Brian Hoyer hurt his shoulder. So Cleveland is out of contention for the playoffs for another season but if the Rookie from South Carolina, Connor Shaw, can get the win in his first career start without 2013 Pro Bowl Wide Receiver, Josh Gordon (failed to go to morning walk-through), the Browns will achieve their first winning season since 2007 when they went 10-6.

Week 13 hurt the Ravens more now than it did then. In Week 13, Baltimore allowed the San Diego Chargers to come back from ten points down by scoring twenty-one points in the fourth quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. A loss is a loss but after last week's defeat in Houston, where Joe Flacco threw three passes to Texans' defenders, the Ravens are no longer in the drivers' seat to get the last seed in the AFC and now need help to get into the NFL Playoffs. Even if the Ravens win today, they need back-up Chase Daniel to lead the Kansas City Chiefs to a victory over the San Diego Chargers at Arrowhead, to get the opportunity to play the winner of the Cincinnati Bengals/Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday Night Football Game in the Wild Card round next week.
---Baltimore 34, Cleveland 17

1:00 PM EST-FOX
11-4 Dallas Cowboys
at 4-11 Washington Redskins

The Cowboys did it, they hung on to win the NFC East Division and clinched it with last week's blowout 42-7 win against Andrew Luck's Indianapolis Colts. Another positive is that Tony Romo looks like he may be healthy for the NFL Playoffs this year and DeMarco Murray is playing effectively with a broken hand. Amazingly, Murray, who has had an MVP season with 12 touchdowns on 1,745 rushing yards and only needs 29 rushing yards today to break Emmitt Smith's franchise record for rushing yards, played well in low usage as he scored a touchdown on 58 rushing yards without fumbling the ball...WITH A BROKEN HAND. To me that is very impressive. Another positive Dallas has coming into today, is that today's game means practically nothing since they are already in the Playoffs. This will be the first game since 2010, that Dallas does not have to win to get into the NFL Playoffs, which is always a good feeling when their is no pressure in Week 17. Now there are some unlikely scenerios that can give Dallas a first round bye such as Arizona and Seattle losing with a Cowboys' win or a tie in the Green Bay/Detroit game with a Cowboys' win but nevertheless next week Dallas will be rocking at AT&A Stadium or celebrating a playoff team at the confines of their home waiting for the matchup the next week

Will Jay Gruden get fired tomorrow? Speak up Redskins' fans, do you want him fired or is RG3 the problem? I will be honest, coming out of Baylor I was not that high on Robert Griffin III, in fact, I would have drafted Ryan Tannehill from Texas A&M over the Heisman Trophy winner. Despite my lack of faith in the Griffin III, I have supported him more than his own coach. When Griffin III was hurt in Week 2 against Jacksonville, Kirk Cousins received his chance to show teams around the NFL what he is made of and threw for two touchdowns and no interceptions against the Jaguars. Everyone was hyped that Cousins was the real deal and better than RG3. The thing NFL fans and scouts forgot in the moenent was that Cousins was facing one of the worst teams in the league. After the Jacksonville performance, Cousins threw nine interceptions and eight touchdowns in a five game stretch where his team saw the win column only once and that was because Gruden made another change at quarterback by putting former Texas star Colt McCoy into the game. McCoy led the Redskins to a comeback victory against Tennessee and later on Monday Night Football against the Dallas Cowboys. McCoy is the guy at Quarterback right? Well he was until he got injured against the New York Giants after two concecutive losses to Indianapolis and St. Louis. The carousel was back to the beginning as Griffin III was back at the helm for the remainder of the Giants game after McCoy's injury and for the Eagles game last Saturday. Impressively Griffin III and the Redskins defeated Philadelphia, in a game that was a must win for the Eagles to get unto the playoffs. Can Griffin III play well enough to defeat the top team in the NFC East with a right shoulder sprain?
---Dallas 34, Washington 20

1:00 PM EST-CBS
10-5 Indianapolis Colts
at 2-13 Tennessee Titans

The most important scenerio in this game has to do with the Titans, not the Colts. With a loss and a Tampa Bay Buccaneers win at home against New Orleans, the Tennessee Titans would get the number one pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, which would essentially give them the preference of whether they want Junior Quarterback from Oregon, Marcus Mariota, or Sophomore Quarterback from Florida State, Jamis Winston. The lack of a quarterback has been the main problem for the Titans in 2014 as injuries have spread throughout the players who wear the red uniforms in practice. The season started out well for Tennessee as they upset the Kansas City Chiefs 26-10 on the Opening Sunday but since then Jake Locker has been hurt twice, and the veteran back-up, Charlie Whitehurst, as well as the Rookie from LSU, Zach Mettenberger, has both received multiple starts for Tennessee while they have lost thirteen of their fourteen games since Week 1. So really I think most Titans fans will be rooting for a struggling Indianapolis Colts team that was completly embarrased, dismantled, and wrangled by the Dallas Cowboys to pull of the victory against the hometown team.

The Indianapolis Colts have been one of the most streakiest teams in the National Football League this season. After dropping the first two games this season to Denver and Philadelphia, Andrew Luck and the Colts won five straight games until a loss to Pittsburgh at Heinz Field ended the run. Then going into the Dallas last week, Indy was on a four game win streak that was quickly erased by four Tony Romo touchdowns in a 42-7 loss at "Jerry's World." Despite the negative of being destroyed on the national stage, the Colts are receiving their best wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton, back from injury just in time to make a Playoff run but to make that run it is essential for the Colts to win this afternoon so they will have some kind of momentum against the loser of the AFC North Championship in the Wild Card round. But if Indianapolis somehow losses today, I guess they always have "Luck" on their side so no need to worry.
---Indianapolis 35, Tennessee 16

1:00 PM EST-FOX
3-12 Jacksonville Jaguars
at 8-7 Houston Texas

The Texans are actually not mathmatically eliminated but they need some serious help to face the winner of the AFC North Championship Game next week. For Houston to get the sixth seed they need the Kansas City Chiefs and back-up Chase Daniel to upset Phillip Rivers' San Diego Chargers and a practice squad Rookie from South Carolina, Connor Shaw, to lead the Cleveland Browns to a win in Baltimore over the Ravens. Despite the uneasiness of relying on back-ups today, it is no new feeling for Houston as they have counted on second string quarterbacks to lead them to victories this season. The Texans started off the season 3-1 with veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick behind center but then the losses started to pile up and Houston found themselves 4-5 going into Week 11. This was when First Year Coach Bill O'Brien made a change and finally started Ryan Mallet, who was traded by New England to Houston earlier in the season. Mallet played very well in his first two starts as a Texan against Cleveland and Cincinnati but the problem for the four year pro from Arkansas is that he suffered a season-ending chest injury in his second start against the Bengals. (Sigh) Back to Ryan Fitzpatrick as starter, but the "new" Fitzpatrick was improved as he threw not one, not two, but SIX touchdown passes in his start after Mallet's injury. In fact, Fitzpatrick led the Texans to two wins but then injury struck him at Lucas Oil Stadium causing a Rookie from Pittsburgh, Tom Savage, to take over. Savage made the game close but Luck and the Colts ultimately prevailed 17-10 making Houston's playoff chances slim to none. On top of the loss news came out that not only Ryan Fitzpatrick would be out for the final two weeks but Tom Savage as well causing who to be the quarterback...Case Keenum, the former Texan and Houston Cougars quarterback. Case Keenum is no stranger to the Houston Texan organization as he started eight games last year (all losses) and was waived by Houston late in August. Welcome Back! Keenum welcomed himself back to the Texans' fan base pretty well as he won his first ever start week in an upset win over the Baltimore Ravens. But even with last week's win, Baltimore still has a better chance to make the playoffs since they have one more win than Houston. As I just recently noted, the Texans look unlikely to make the Playoffs, but that doesn't mean they haven't had a great season behind MVP canidate, J.J. Watt. Watt has really helped the Texans win games in 2014 not only on the defensive side of the ball but the offensive side by catching touchdowns as a Tight End. Watt has caught three touchdowns on offense this season while having one more on defense meaning that he has more touchdowns than the Tampa Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, and today's opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars, have wins. Crazy right? In addition to his touchdowns, Watt has 17.5 sacks coming into today with the chance to make history by being the only player in NFL history to have two seasons of 20+ sacks if he can get 2.5 more today on Rookie quarterback Blake Bortles.

From Oviedo, Florida, to Orlando, Florida, to Jacksonville, Florida, that is the path of the Jaguars Franchise quarterback, Blake Bortles. Originally, Jacksonville's Coach Gus Bradley said this would be Blake Bortles' "red-shirt year" and he would sit behind veteran from Michigan Chad Henne as back-up but halfway through the third game of the season against the Indianapolis Colts, Bradley made the switch to the 2013 American Athletic Conference Player of the Year and the rest is history. In his first starts Bortles struggled like the majority of rookie quarterbacks that ever suited up in their first season. His problems consisted of staring down his receivers or in other words telegraphing his passes, which allowed for defenders to grab his passes as interceptions, and not being able to step up in the pocket with a bad offensive line surrounding him. As he received more and more experience, he eventually solved the issues and has played very well with good passing and rushing stats. He has even won three games for the Jaguars so far which is an accomplishment on its own. With Bortles another good player emerged in former Michigan quarterback turned running back, Denard Robinson. With a fast running back that is clutch in the Red Zone (Robinson) and a quarterback with a strong arm (Bortles), the Jaguars come into today with three wins and three losses of less than one possession in Bortles' starts. Will the former Knight be able to bring a win to a UCF fan base that had a tough loss in the Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl against NC State or will J.J Watt do his dance and make history.
---Houston 27, Jacksonville 14


 
4:25 PM EST-CBS
6-8-1 Carolina Panthers
at 6-9 Atlanta Falcons

This is how divisions should be decided. At the Georgia Dome this afternoon, the Carolina Panthers and the Atlanta Falcons will face off for the NFC South division crown, a spot in the Playoffs as well as a home playoff game next weekend.

For Carolina, the season started out great as Derek Anderson led Carolina to a Week 1 victory over Tampa Bay while Cam Newton was hurt. Then the following week with Newton back at the helm, the Panthers soundly defeated the Detroit Lions. The Panthers were on top of the world...and then everything came crashing down quick and hard. After Week 2, Cam and the boys went 1-8-1 in their next ten games. I don't play professional football but I am pretty sure that isn't good. The Panthers even lost to Teddy Bridgewater's Minnesota Vikings! Despite the poor performances of the past, Week 14 was the turning point in the Panthers' season. The opponent was the New Orleans at the Superdome. The Saints were 5-7 going into the game and with a win they would have been one step closer to winning the division. The problem for the Saints was that Carolina had other plans and shocked the football world by scoring 41 points on the Saints in a 41-10 win at the Superdome. After the win, Carolina was 4-8-1 and had to win every game for the remainder of the season to even have a chance at the division crown. Anything is possible I suppose but what if Cam Newton gets into a car accident. No one would have predicted that. The car accident to Newton caused him to miss the following game, throwing Derek Anderson into battle for a second time against Tampa Bay. Carolina commanded the game for the majority and despite a Buccaneer rally late, the Panthers survived 19-17, setting up a matchup with Johnny Manziel and the Cleveland Browns for a chance to play in the NFC South Championship game. The game was very close and the Browns actually were leading 13-10 in the fourth quarter against the Panthers but Cam Newton then drove the Panthers down the field and gave Carolina the lead with 7:07 remaining in the fourth quarter. After the score, the defense stepped up and stopped Brian Hoyer on the fifty yardline. Cleveland Coach Mike Pettine decided to punt the ball to Carolina with the hope that his defense could stop Newton and the Panthers. The stop never occurred and Carolina was all set for the NFC South Championship game.

I don't know what is more amazing...that the Atlanta Falcons have a chance to make the playoffs or that five of their six wins are against their division rivals and with a win today, Atlanta would be a perfect 6-0 against division opponents. The Falcons were 2-6 to start the season but then they won four of their next seven games (not impressive but as good as it is going to get in the NFC South) including wins at Carolina and at New Orleans. The win at the Superdome was important not only because it clinched a Week 17 opportunity for the Falcons but because it also mathmatically eliminated the Saints from being in division championship contention. In fact, Atlanta's defense was the side of the ball that really got the job done last week in the Superdome as the Falcons forced two fumbles in addition to two interceptions from Drew Brees. Another positive for Atlanta is that wide receiver Julio Jones is returning from a hip injury that sidelined him last week in New Orleans. Obviously defense will be the key for Atlanta since at times this season it has been nonexistent leading to loses. No matter what the defensive side of the ball brings, Atlanta will need a good performance from Matt Ryan to host a playoff game next week. 

---Atlanta 23, Carolina 20

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