Saturday, January 31, 2015

PW's College Basketball Predictions for Super Saturday (Jan 31)

By Peyton Wesner

4:00 PM EST-ESPN
17-4 (7-1) 13. North Carolina
at 17-3 (5-2) 10. Louisville

17-4 (7-1) 13. North Carolina
Solid Wins:
-Davidson 90-72 (in Charlotte)
-#22 UCLA 78-56 in Consolation Bracket of Battle 4 Atlantis.
-#18 Florida 75-64 in Consolation Championship of Battle 4 Atlantis.
-#12 Ohio State 82-74 in CBS Sports Classic (in Chicago)
-#5 Louisville 72-71 (Home)
-NC State 81-79 (Road)
Losses to Unranked Opponents:
-Butler 74-66 in Quarterfinal of Battle 4 Atlantis.
-Iowa 60-55 in ACC/Big Ten Challenge (Home)
Last Game:
-Win Against Syracuse 93-83
Key Players:
---#5 Marcus Paige (JR)
-14.1 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 4.2 APG, & 1.4 SPG.
---#3 Kennedy Meeks (SO)
-13.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG, & 1.3 BPG.
---#11 Brice Johnson (JR)
-12.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG, & 1.0 BPG.
---#44 Justin Jackson (FR)
-10.0 PPG, 3.4 RPG, & 2.6 APG.
---#13 J.P. Tokoto (JR)
-9.0 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 4.1 APG, & 1.3 SPG.

17-3 (5-2) 10. Louisville
Solid Wins:
-Minnesota 81-68 (in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico)
-Cleveland State 45-33 (Home)
-#14 Ohio State 64-55 (Home)
-Indiana 94-74 (in Jimmy V Classic)
-Long Beach State 63-48 (Home)
-Pittsburgh 80-68 (Road)
Losses:
-#1 Kentucky 58-50 (Home)
-#18 North Carolina 72-71 (Road)
-#4 Duke 63-52 (Home)
Key Players:
---#0 Terry Rozier (SO)
-18.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.6 APG, & 2.1 SPG.
---#24 Montrezl Harrell (JR)
-14.9 PPG, 8.9 RPG, & 1.2 BPG.
---#3 Chris Jones (SR)
-13.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.9 APG, & 2.0 SPG.
---#25 Wayne Blackshear (SR)
-11.8 PPG, 4.9 RPG, & 1.6 SPG.

Prediction:
If today's matchup is even half as good as their first meeting, we are all in for a treat. The North Carolina Tar Heels have been one of the hottest teams in the country since their loss to Notre Dame after the death of UNC graduate Stewart Scott. Since the defeat, North Carolina has averaged just under eighty points per game including 93 points against Syracuse's zone defense. The task will be tall though against the Louisville Cardinals at the KFC Yum! Center. The Cardinals once again have a great team on the North side of Kentucky as they have only lost three games this season all coming against ranked teams. One loss came against today's opponent, the North Carolina Tar Heels, as All-American Point Guard Marcus Paige ended his early game woes and made a layup to give UNC the lead and later the win on their home court. The revenge meeting is today as two of the best teams in the ACC face-off. My key for Louisville is personally for Montrezl Harrell as he needs to stay out of foul trouble and keep on the court to rebound and dominate the paint. For North Carolina, I believe the key is for Sophomore Kennedy Meeks to have another good game and not get pushed around in the post by Louisville's veteran big men. If Meeks holds his own and pulls down rebounds, Virginia better look out because they will be facing the hottest team not undefeated on Monday. 
---Louisville 73, North Carolina 69

6:00 PM EST-ESPN2
14-6 (3-4) 19. Texas
at 15-5 (3-4) 20. Baylor

14-6 (3-4) 19. Texas
Solid Wins:
-North Dakota State 85-50 (Home)
-Iowa 71-57 in Semi-Final of 2K Classic.
-California 71-55 in Championship of 2K Classic.
-#24 Connecticut 55-54 (Road)
-Long Beach State 78-68 (Home)
-#16 West Virginia 77-50 (Home)
Conference Losses:
-#16 Oklahoma 70-49 (Home)
-Oklahoma State 69-58 (Road)
-#11 Kansas 75-62 (Home)
Last Game:
-Loss To #15 Iowa State 89-86 (Road)
Key Players:
---#1 Isaiah Taylor (SO)
-13.1 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.7 APG, & 1.1 SPG.
---#10 Jonathan Holmes (SR)
-11.9 PPG & 6.7 RPG.
---#52 Myles Turner (FR)
-11.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, & 2.8 BPG.
---#3 Javan Felix (JR)
-10.4 PPG, 2.3 RPG, & 2.1 APG.
---#55 Cameron Ridley (JR)
-8.5 PPG, 4.6 RPG, & 1.8 BPG.

15-5 (3-4) 20. Baylor
Solid Wins:
-South Carolina 69-55 (Road)
-Stephen F. Austin 67-61 (Home)
-Memphis 71-47 in Semi-Final of Las Vegas Holiday Classic.
-Texas A&M 77-63 (Home)
-New Mexico State 66-55 (Home)
-#11 Iowa State 74-73 (Home)
-#19 Oklahoma 69-58 (Home)
Conference Losses:
-#18 Oklahoma 73-63 (Road)
-#12 Kansas 56-55 (Home)
-Kansas State 63-61 (Road)
-Oklahoma State 64-53 (Road)
Key Players:
---#21 Taurean Prince (JR)
-12.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.0 BPG, & 1.2 SPG.
---#1 Kenny Chery (SR)
-11.0 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 3.9 APG, & 1.7 SPG.
---#2 Rico Gathers (JR)
-10.7 PPG, 11.9 RPG, & 1.3 SPG.
---#00 Royce O'Neale (SR)
-9.2 PPG, 6.2 RPG, & 3.2 APG.
---#35 Johnathan Motley (FR)
-9.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG, & 1.9 BPG.
---#11 Lester Medford (JR)
-8.5 PPG, 1.6 RPG, & 3.6 APG.

Prediction:
Although you can make the case for the ACC to be the best conference in college basketball, the Big 12 is the conference with the best teams from top to bottom. The stat that proves my case is that nine of the ten teams have been in the Top 25 for at least one week this season. Amazing right? Indeed it is but another thing that amazes me is that both of these teams are currently in the Top 25 with under .500 conference records, which is another testiment of how great the Big 12 is. Both Baylor and Texas are so evenly matched in my opinion as they both contain opponents to 58 points per game and score about the same amount of points. In addition, both teams have lost at least two conference games on the road, which gives the edge to Baylor in the matchup. Despite the best player wearing orange tonight in Texas guard Isaiah Taylor, I feel the better team is wearing green and will use home court advantage to get back to 4-4 in conference play.
---Baylor 68, Texas 65

7:00 PM EST-ESPN
17-3 (4-3) 4. Duke 
at 19-0 (7-0) 2. Virginia

17-3 (4-3) 4. Duke
Solid Wins:
-#19 Michigan State 81-71 (Home)
-Temple 74-54 in Semi-Final of Coaches vs. Cancer Classic.
-Stanford 70-59 in Championship of Coaches vs. Cancer Classic.
-#2 Wisconsin 80-70 (Road)
-Connecticut 66-56 (in East Rutherford)
-Toledo 86-69
-#6 Louisville 63-62 (Road)
-Pittsburgh 79-65 (Home)
-St. John's 77-68 (Road)
Conference Losses:
-NC State 87-75 (Road)
-Miami (FL) 90-74 (Home)
-#8 Notre Dame 77-73 (Road)
Key Players:
---#15 Jahlil Okafor (FR)
-18.7 PPG, 9.4 RPG, & 1.5 BPG.
---#2 Quinn Cook (SR)
-14.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.8 APG, & 1.3 SPG.
---#5 Tyus Jones (FR)
-10.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 5.0 APG, & 1.4 SPG.
---#12 Justice Winslow (FR)
-10.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG & 1.8 APG.
---#21 Amile Jefferson (JR)
-8.8 PPG & 7.4 RPG.

19-0 (7-0) 2. Virginia
Solid Wins:
-George Washington 59-42 (Home)
-La Salle 64-56 in Semi-Final of Barclays Center Classic.
-Rutgers 45-26 in Championship of Barclays Center Classic.
-#21 Maryland 76-65 in ACC/Big Ten Challenge (Road)
-VCU 74-57 (Road)
-Cleveland State 70-54 (Home)
-Harvard 76-27 (Home)
-Davidson 83-72 (Home)
-Miami 89-80 in Double Overtime (Road)
-NC State 61-51 (Home)
-#13 Notre Dame 62-56 (Road)
-Clemson 65-42 (Home)
Key Players:
---#1 Justin Anderson (JR)
-13.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG & 1.9 APG.
---#15 Malcolm Brogdon (JR)
-13.3 PPG, 3.5 RPG, & 2.7 APG.
---#13 Anthony Gill (JR)
-11.3 PPG & 6.7 RPG.
---#10 Mike Tobey (JR)
-7.6 PPG & 5.6 RPG.

Prediction:
If you think I am picking Duke, then you may not know me that well. I am sorry Duke fans, I don't root nor pick for Devils. Today's matchup was once thought to be a possible battle of the undefeateds but then Duke turned into the Blue Devils' team I love that shows up every year during the middle of March during the NCAA Tournament with losses at NC State by 12 and at Cameron Indoor Stadium by 16 against Miami. After righting the ship and getting Coach Krzyzewski his 1,000 career win last Sunday at Madison Square Garden against St. John's, Duke lost thier third conference game at Notre Dame on Wednesday. Number four coming tonight on ESPN against the best defense in college basketball? Personally, I cannot believe that the Virginia Cavaliers are better than last year's team. It is truly unfathomable since Joe Harris, who is now in the NBA with the Cleveland Cavaliers, is not on their team anymore. Defense is the key for Virginia as they only allow opponents to score an average of 49.2 points per game. The matchup to watch is no doubt Duke's great offense led by Jahlil Okafor and Quinn Cook versus Virginia's great defense. Virginia cannot outscore Duke but if their defense can play like they have, Virginia will win. Lastly, do not sleep on Justin Anderson as he is finally on the national stage and could show NBA scouts how good he really is.
---Virginia 62, Duke 60

8:00 PM EST-ESPN2
13-7 (4-4) 24. Oklahoma
at 14-6 (4-4) Oklahoma State

13-7 (4-4) Oklahoma
Solid Wins:
-#22 UCLA 75-65 in Quarterfinal of Battle 4 Atlantis.
-Butler 59-46 in Semi-Final of Battle 4 Atlantis.
-Tulsa 87-68 (Road)
-#22 Baylor 73-63 (Home)
-#10 Texas 70-49 (Road)
-#24 Oklahoma State 82-65 (Home)
Conference Losses:
-Kansas State 66-63 in Overtime (Home)
-#16 West Virginia 86-65 (Road)
-#11 Kansas 85-78 (Road)
-#21 Baylor 69-58 (Road)
Last Game:
-Win Against Texas Tech 81-36 (Home)
Key Players:
---#24 Buddy Hield (JR)
-17.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.9 APG, & 1.4 SPG.
---#11 Isaiah Cousins (JR)
-12.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.0 APG, & 1.3 SPG.
---#35 TaShawn Thomas (SR)
-10.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, & 1.5 BPG.
---#00 Ryan Spangler (JR)
-10.2 PPG, 8.0 RPG, & 1.3 BPG.
---#10 Jordan Woodard (SO)
-8.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 4.5 APG, & 1.3 SPG.

14-6 (4-4) Oklahoma State
Solid Wins:
-Oregon State 66-53 in Semi-Final of MGM Grand Main Event.
-Tulsa 73-58 in Championship of MGM Grand Main Event.
-Memphis 73-55 (Road)
-Missouri 74-72 in Overtime (Home)
-Kansas State 61-47 (Home)
-#10 Texas 69-58 (Home)
Conference Losses:
-#17 Iowa State 63-61 (Road)
-#9 Kansas 67-57 (Road)
-#18 Oklahoma 82-65 (Road)
-Kansas State 63-53 (Road)
Key Players:
---#13 Phil Forte III (JR)
-17.4 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.8 APG, & 2.3 SPG.
---#2 Le'Bryan Nash (SR)
17.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.9 APG, & 1.0 BPG.
---#12 Anthony Hickey Jr. (SR)
-8.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.9 APG, & 2.0 SPG.

Prediction:
Are you a Big 12 Basketball fan and sad Texas at Baylor was a non-exciting Baylor win? Don't worry Oklahoma at Oklahoma State comes on right after Texas at Baylor on ESPN2. The Oklahoma Sooners have hit a turbulanet part of their schedule as they have dropped games at Kansas and at Baylor after defeating tonight's opponent the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Norman a few weeks ago. Although, times have been better for the Sooners, none have been better for star Buddy Hield as he has been tickling the twine in conference play and is averaging 20.6 points per game, good enough for most in the conference during the span. In addition to Hield's great performances, fellow guard Isaiah Cousins is averaging thirteen points per game in his last three and forward Ryan Spangler is averaging 14.3 per game in his. Will Oklahoma State's Le'Bryan Nash and Phil Forte III be able to produce enough to avoid a series sweep this year? The Oklahoma State Cowboys are coming off a huge win at home against Baylor where the whole team contributed to help the Cowboys shoot down the Bears by eleven points. Although, It is very possible that Oklahoma State will return the favor to their Oklahoman rival tonight at home, in my opinion this is a must-win game for Oklahoma State because their next three games include at Texas, home against Kansas, and at Baylor. I just do not see Oklahoma State having a better chance to win in their next four but right here. On the other hand, this game is crucial for Oklahoma because with a loss they would drop outside the top twenty five rankings and no team wants that. Ultimately I see it coming down to who can score more between Oklahoma's trio of Hield, Cousins, and Spangler and Oklahoma State's of Forte III, Nash, and Hickey Jr.
---Oklahoma 72, Oklahoma State 70

10:00 PM EST-ESPN2
13-7 Memphis
at 21-1 3. Gonzaga

13-7 Memphis
Solid Wins:
-Indiana State 72-62 in Third Place Game of Las Vegas Holiday Classic.
-North Carolina Central 81-47 (Home)
-Cincinnati 63-50 (Home)
American Athletic Conference Losses:
-Tulane 74-66 (Home)
-SMU 73-59 (Road)
-Tulsa 73-55 (Road)
Key Players:
---#4 Austin Nicholls (SO)
-13.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG, & 3.2 BPG.
---#0 Trashon Burrell (JR)
-9.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, & 2.2 APG.
---#20 Avery Woodson (SO)
-8.6 PPG, 2.6 RPG, & 1.2 SPG.
---#2 Shaq Goodwin (JR)
-7.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG, & 1.0 BPG.

21-1 3. Gonzaga
Solid Wins:
-#22 SMU 72-56
-Georgia 88-76 in Semi-Final of NIT Season Tip-Off.
-St. John's 73-66 in Championship of NIT Season Tip-Off.
-UCLA 87-74 (Road)
-BYU 87-80 (Road)
-Pepperdine 78-76 (Road)
-Saint Mary's 68-47 (Home)
Only Loss:
-#3 Arizona 65-63 in Overtime (Road)
Key Players:
---#33 Kyle Wiltjer (JR)
-15.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG, & 2.0 APG.
---#4 Kevin Pangos (SR)
-12.3 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 4.7 APG, & 1.3 SPG.
---#24 Przemek Karnowski (JR)
-10.8 PPG & 6.1 RPG.
---#22 Byron Wesley (SR)
-10.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 2.3 APG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#11 Domantas Sabonis (FR)
-10.0 PPG & 6.9 RPG.
---#5 Gary Bell Jr. (SR)
-8.2 PPG, 2.6 RPG, & 2.0 APG.

Prediction:
The last non-West Coast Conference threat to get a crack at the Gonzaga Bulldogs prior to tournament time is the Memphis Tigers. Memphis is currently on the outside looking in of the NCAA Tournament berth bubble but a win tonight would help significantly. The Tigers do not have the same dominance this year like they used to have in Conference-USA as they have suffered losses to Stephen F. Austin and Tulane. In addition to the poor losses, Shaq Goodwin, a player who was looked to be a big contributor, has had an awful Junior season with his points per game down 3.7 in contrast to his Sophomore year. The only bright spot has been the play of Austin Nicholls who has the looks of a star for the Tigers. The problem for Memphis tonight is that, Gonzaga has five players that can produce almost the same amount as Nicholls. The Gonzaga Bulldogs are off to yet another great season and if it wasn't for the Arizona Wildcats' T.J. McConnell, they would be undefeated. The Zags are led by former Kentucky Wildcat Kyle Wiltjer who is showing UK what they are missing out on as he has emerged as a star in Spokane. In addition to Wiltjer, Senior Kevin Pangos is still in school and is having another solid season facilitating and shooting the basketball. Does Memphis even have a chance tonight? Yes and it would be a season changing upset, but I do not forsee Gonzaga with all their experienced talent allowing the Tigers to come into their building and push them around.
---Gonzaga 75, Memphis 60

10:00 PM EST-ESPNU
10-9 (3-4) Cal Poly
at 15-4 (5-1) UC Davis

10-9 (3-4) Cal Poly
Solid Wins:
-San Francisco 78-71 (Road)
-Northeastern 60-58 (in Santa Clara)
-Santa Clara 69-58 (Road)
-Hawaii 61-57 in Overtime (Road)
Conference Losses:
-UC Santa Barbara 50-45 (Home)
-Long Beach State 50-48 (Road)
-Cal State Northridge 55-48 (Road)
-UC Irvine 67-57 (Road)
Key Players:
---#0 David Nwaba (JR)
-13.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG, & 1.4 SPG.
---#34 Brian Bennett (JR)
-10.9 PPG & 6.3 RPG.
---#5 Reese Morgan (SR)
-9.9 PPG & 3.8 RPG.
---#25 Joel Awich (JR)
-8.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG, & 1.2 BPG.

15-4 (5-1) UC Davis
Solid Wins:
-Eastern Illlinois 63-61 (Road)
-Utah State 77-70 in Overtime (Home)
-Eastern Illinois 80-70 (Home)
-Air Force 81-75 (Road)
-Northern Colorado 73-63 (Road)
-Long Beach State 73-67 in Overtime (Home)
-UC Santa Barbara 70-64 (Home)
Non-Power Six Conference Losses:
-Idaho 79-71 (Road)
-Seattle 76-67 (Road)
-Hawaii 84-76 (Road)
Key Players:
---#3 Corey Hawkins (SR)
-21.2 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 3.7 APG, & 1.4 SPG.
---#23 Josh Ritchart (SR)
-11.7 PPG & 4.1 RPG.
---#21 Josh Fox (JR)
-9.5 PPG & 4.4 RPG.
---#13 J.T. Adenrele (JR)
-7.4 PPG & 4.4 RPG.

Prediction:
If you are like me and love watching late night college hoops turn over to ESPNU because this game has the capability to be great. If you are not familiar with the Big West Conference or either team let me tell you the only two words that you need to know: Corey Hawkins. Hawkins is a great player and has been a lethal scorer ever since he stepped on campus. In his Freshman year he averaged 20.3 points per game and last year during his Sophomore season he had 18.0 points per game. This season Hawkins has taken his game and his team to a whole other level. The team that has the job of trying to  stop Hawkins is the Cal Poly Mustangs. If the University of Cal Poly sounds familiar it is because they won an NCAA Tournament game in the First Four last year before getting beaten as the sixteen seed by the Wichita State Shockers. Cal Poly does not have a pure scorer like their opponent but do have four players that can collectively put together the bulk of their team's points. This evening though I feel Cal Poly will not be able to put together enough points to counter UC Davis and Corey Hawkins. Who knows maybe Corey Hawkins and UC Davis will be the first team to knock of a one seed in the NCAA Tournament as a sixteen seed if they win the Big West Conference Tournament in March.
---UC Davis 66, Cal Poly 60
Courtney Hawkins Points: 27 

10:30 PM EST-PAC 12 Network
11-9 (4-4) Colorado
at 12-9 (4-4) UCLA

11-9 (4-4) Colorado
Solid Wins:
-Auburn 90-59 (Home)
-Air Force 68-53 (Home)
-DePaul 82-68 in Quarterfinal of Diamond Head Classic.
-UCLA 62-56 (Home)
-Washington State 90-54 (Home)
"Never Should Have Happened" Losses:
-Wyoming 56-33 (Road)
-Georgia 64-57 (Road)
-Colorado State 62-60 (Home)
-Hawaii 69-66 (Road) in 5th Place Game of Diamond Head Classic.
-Arizona State 78-72 (Road)
Key Players:
---#0 Askia Booker (SR)
-17.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.3 APG, & 1.4 SPG.
---#2 Xavier Johnson (JR)
-12.7 PPG & 5.3 RPG.
---#1 Wesley Gordan (SO)
-7.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG, & 1.5 BPG.

12-9 (4-4) UCLA
Solid Wins:
-Coastal Carolina 84-71 (Home)
-Long Beach State 77-63 (Home)
-Stanford 86-81 in Double Overtime (Home)
-#11 Utah 69-59 (Home)
Losses Against Unranked Opponents:
-Oklahoma 75-65 in Quarterfinal of Battle 4 Atlantis.
-Alabama 56-50 (Road)
-Colorado 62-56 (Road)
-Oregon State 66-56 (Road)
-Oregon 82-64 (Road)
Key Players:
---#4 Norman Powell (SR)
-15.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.0 APG, & 2.0 SPG.
---#20 Bryce Alford (SO)
-15.7 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 5.6 APG, & 1.1 SPG.
---#5 Kevon Looney (FR)
-12.7 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 1.3 SPG, & 1.1 BPG.
---#23 Tony Parker (JR)
-10.4 PPG & 7.3 RPG.
---#10 Issac Hamilton (SO)
-10.2 PPG, 3.7 RPG, & 2.2 APG.

Prediction:
UCLA beat-down Utah and I am still shocked! How can the UCLA Bruins who have looked absolutley awful at times during conference play like at Utah, where they lost 71-39 and at Oregon where they lost 82-64, defeat Utah by ten points? I really don't know but if they play like they did on Thursday, their opponent, the Colorado Buffalos, is in big trouble. The Colorado Buffalos have one of the best guards in the conference in Askia Booker but the Senior can only do so much for his team. On Thursday, Booker scored a career-high 43 points in a triple overtime win at USC, which was just one of many amazing performances he has had in the last four years. The problem for Booker and the Buffalos is that he has had to do it all for his team because of an injury to Colorado's second leading scorer, Josh Scott. In matchup one between the two teams, which also happened to be each team's conference opener, Colorado eventually won behind twenty points from Booker. UCLA's Bryce Alford had the worst game of his career as he shot two for sixteen from the field. I do not expect Alford to play badly again tonight, but I do expect for UCLA to continue their winning streak while returning the favor to Colorado at home.
---UCLA 70, Colorado 64

PW's Prediction Record Coming into Today: 108-42 (34-11 in the MVC)



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