Saturday, January 3, 2015

PW's College Basketball Predictions for Super Saturday (January 3)

By Peyton Wesner

11:00 PM EST-ESPN2
10-3 (1-0) SMU
at 9-3 (0-0) Cincinnati

Team Resumés

10-3 (1-0) SMU
Solid Wins
-Eastern Washington 77-68 (Home)
-Wyoming 66-53 (Home)
-UC Santa Barbara 80-73 in Overtime (Home)
-Michigan 62-51 (Road)
-South Florida 83-49 (Home)
Losses to Non-Ranked Opponents:
-Indiana 74-68 (Road)
Key Players:
---#11 Nic Moore (JR)
-14.8 PPG, 2.2 RPG, & 4.8 APG.
---#2 Yanick Moreira (SR)
-12.4 PPG, 6.7 RPG, & 1.8 BPG.
---#4 Keith Frazier (SO)
-11.4 PPG & 4.3 RPG.
---#0 Ben Moore (SO)
-9.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG, & 2.7 APG

9-3 (0-0) Cincinnati
Solid Wins:
-#19 San Diego State 71-62 in Overtime (Home)
-NC State 76-60 (Home)
Losses to Non-Ranked Opponents:
-Mississippi 66-54 in Championship of Emerald Coast Classic.
-Nebraska 56-55 in Double Overtime (Road)
-VCU 68-47 (Home)
Key Players:
---#2 Octavius Ellis (JR)
-9.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG, & 2.6 BPG.
---#10 Troy Caupain (SO)
-9.3 PPG, 3.8 RPG, & 3.3 APG.
---#11 Gary Clark (FR)
-8.2 PPG, 7.1 RPG, & 1.4 APG.

Prediction:
The crowd should be rocking in Fifth Third Arena for the Cincinnati Bearcats' American Athletic Conference opener against the SMU Mustangs. Cincinnati lost thier best two players from last season in Sean Kilpatrick and Justin Jackson who graduated. Kilpatrick was Cincinnati's leading scorer with twenty plus points per game while Jackson was their best rebounder and always a double-double threat. Those are two big holes to fill and although they will never be filled fully, Octavius Ellis and Troy Caupain have tried their hardest to be the big performers going forward. While Cincinnati is looking for great players to emerge from the surface, SMU has their main players for at least the next two seasons. The Mustangs are led by Junior Nic Moore, who transfered after his Freshman year from Illinois State. Moore has taken the reigns as best player this season when 6'9" Markus Kennedy (JR) went out with an injury that caused him to miss the first ten games of the season. Now Kennedy is back from injury but is being weened off the bench into action. This afternoon I believe Cincinnati will not have enough offense to hang around with the Mustangs, who have won thier last eight games after a 2-3 start to the season.
---SMU 67, Cincinnati 63

12:00 PM EST-FOX SPORTS 1
13-0 (1-0) 6. Villanova
 at 11-2 (1-0) Seton Hall

Team Resumés

13-0 (1-0) Villanova
Solid Wins:
-#14 VCU 77-53 in Semi-Final of Legends Classic.
-#19 Michigan 60-55 in Championship of Legends Classic.
-La Salle 84-70 (Road)
-Illinois 73-59 in Jimmy V Classic.
-Temple 85-62 (Home)
-Syracuse 82-77 in Overtime (Home)
-Butler 67-55 (Home)
No Losses
Key Players:
---#4 Darrun Hilliard II (SR)
-12.3 PPG, 2.8 RPG, & 2.1 APG.
---#31 Dylan Ellis (JR)
-11.2 PPG, 4.1 RPG, & 3.1 APG.
---#22 JavVaughn Pinkston (SR)
-10.8 PPG, 6.0 RPG, & 1.5 APG.
---#3 Josh Hart (SO)
-10.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG, & 1.9 APG.
---#23 Daniel Ochefu (JR)
-9.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, & 1.7 APG.

11-2 (1-0) Seton Hall
Solid Wins:
-Mercer 63-47 (Home Opener)
-Illinois State 84-80 in Championship of Paradise Jam.
-George Washington 58-54 (Home)
-Rutgers 81-54 (Home)
-South Florida 89-69 (Road)
-#15 St. John's 78-67 (Home)
Losses:
-#11 Wichita State 77-68 (Road)
-Georgia 65-47 (Road)
Key Players:
---#4 Sterling Gibbs (JR)
-16.3 PPG & 3.7 APG.
---#2 Brandon Mobley (SR)
-10.2 PPG & 5.1 RPG.
---#31 Angel Delgado (FR)
-8.9 PPG, 9.1 RPG, & 1.5 BPG.

Prediction:
The Seton Hall Pirates have really impressed me this season and have quite the resumé with wins against George Washington and #15 St. John's. The win against the Red Storm specifically shocked me since the Pirates' second leading scorer Isaiah Whitehead (FR) was out with a foot injury. Whitehead is a very good young guard that is averaging double-figure points in his first collegiate season. Somehow Seton Hall was able to up muster enough points behind 25 from Sterling Gibbs in a 78-67 win. I am not sure if Seton Hall can score the number of points they did on Wednesday nor receive twenty-plus points from Gibbs against the unbeaten Villanova Wildcats. The Wildcats have had a perfect season so far as they hope to win the Big East this season. Villanova has many scorers that can put the ball in the bucket to go along with a defense that allows only average 58.9 points per game. I believe this afternoon Villanova's defense will minimize Gibbs' production while the offense will put enough points on the board to win by at least two possessions.
---Villanova 64, Seton Hall 57

7:30 PM EST
10-4 Murray State
at 5-10 Morehead State

Team Resumés

10-4 Murray State
Solid Wins:
-Middle Tennessee 68-49 (Road)
-Drake 68-59 (in Nashville)
-Western Kentucky 93-81 (Home)
-Evansville 81-79 (Road)
-Illinois State 89-77 (Home)
-Southern Illinois 83-71 (Road)
Non-Power Six Losses:
-Portland 64-61 (in Nashville)
-Valparaiso 93-58 (in Nashville)
Key Players:
---#1 Cameron Payne (SO)
-18.2 PPG, 3.0 RPG, & 5.8 APG.
---#4 Jarvis Williams (SR)
-15.6 PPG & 7.6 RPG.
---#22 T.J. Sapp (SR)
-10.6 PPG, 2.6 RPG, & 2.8 APG.
---#31 Jeffery Moss (JR)
-10.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG, & 2.1 APG.

5-10 Morehead State
Wins Against Division One Opponents:
-Presbyterian 69-49 (in Ruston)
-Marshall 77-68 (Road)
-Central Arkansas 95-60 (Road)
"Never Should Have Happened" Losses:
-American 51-46 (In Ruston)
-UAB 58-48 (Road)
-Oakland 70-68 in Overtime 70-68 (Home)
-Northern Kentucky 83-60 (Home)
Key Players:
---#22 Angelo Warner (SR)
-13.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG, & 2.4 APG.
---#3 Corban Collins (SO)
-10.0 PPG & 3.6 RPG.
---#32 Brent Arrington (JR)
-9.7 PPG, 2.7 RPG, & 1.9 RPG.

Prediction:
An old rivalry is reopened tonight in Morehead, Kentucky, between the Murray State Racers and Morehead State Eagles. The Murray State Races have dominated the rivilary since 2011 as they have not lost a game since February 25, 2010, when current NBA players Kenneth Faried (Now Denver Nuggets), then Morehead State Eagle, and Isaiah Cannan (Now Houston Rockets), then Murray State Racer, were suiting up for their respective teams. Tonight, a future NBA player willl suit up for Murray State in guard Cameron Payne (SO). Payne actually has played better stat-wise then Cannan dis his first two seasons. He is that kind of player! Since Faried's graudation, Morehead State's program has gone from powerful mid-major to "Oh yeah, that is the school that defeated Louisville in the 2011 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament." Coming into tonight's matchup the Eagles have won their last game but lost the six before it while the Racers have sped off their last eight for victories. This evening I feel that Morehead State will have no answer for Payne because when he catches fire, he cannot miss. I look for the "Sophomore Stud" to have 20+ points as Murray State continues their dominance in the rivalry.
---Murray State 77, Morehead State 60

11:00 PM EST
12-4 (2-1) BYU
at 7-6 (1-2) San Francisco

Team Resumés

12-4 (2-1) BYU
Solid Wins:
-Long Beach State 95-90 (Home Opener)
-Utah State 91-81 (Road)
-Hawaii 90-70 (in Salt Lake City)
-Stanford 79-77 (Home)
-Massachusetts 77-71 in Overtime (Home)
-Portland 97-88 (Home)
-Santa Clara 81-46 (Road)
Non-Ranked Opponent Losses:
-Purdue 87-85 in Overtime in 5th Place Game of Maui Invitational.
Key Players:
---#3 Tyler Haws (SR)
-21.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG, & 2.6 APG.
---#20 Anson Winder (SR)
-14.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG, & 1.8 APG.
---#1 Chase Fischer (JR)
-13.4 PPG, 2.1 RPG, & 2.5 APG.
---#5 Kyle Collinsworth (JR)
-13.3 PPG, 8.3 RPG, & 5.6 APG.

7-6 (1-2) San Francisco
Solid Wins:
-Hawaii 88-73 in Quarterfinal of Gulf Coast Showcase.
-Pacific 77-71 (Away)
Questionable Losses:
-Cal Poly 78-71 (Home)
-Cleveland State 69-65 in Overtime (Road)
-San Diego (Home) 57-56
Key Players:
---#23 Mark Tollefsen (JR)
-15.3 PPG, 5.5 RPG, & 2.1 APG.
---#15 Kruize Pinkins (SR)
-15.0 PPG, 6.1 RPG, & 1.7 APG.
---#32 Tim Derksen (JR)
-11.8 PPG, 4.9 RPG, & 2.0 APG.

Prediction:
The Portland/BYU game showed me that the Cougars defense cannot stop even the weakest West Coast Conference offense and that every game for them is a track meet. This means that when BYU meets a team that can play well on defense, they may not be able to easily win like they have. San Francisco has a solid team that has the capability to stop the Cougars offense if BYU takes the Dons lightly. The average number of points opponents score on San Francisco is 64 points per game, which is  twenty three points less than the Cougars offensive average per game. Even if the defense can hold BYU, in order to win tonight, San Francisco will need huge performances from their big man combo of Mark Tollefsen and Kruize Pinkins. Actually, If Tollefsen and Pinkins score twenty plus points apiece I think the Dons could win since BYU lacks a good big man unless guard Kyle Collinsworth counts. Untilmately I will pick  BYU to win tonight since it is Tyler Haws' Senior year and San Francisco is not a Top Ten ranked team.
---BYU 74, San Francisco 68


PW's Prediction Record so far: 41-23 (3-2 in the MVC)

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