Saturday, January 3, 2015

PW's MVC Men's Basketball Predictions (Jan 3/Jan 4)

By Peyton Wesner

Well, was't that a very surprising set of Missouri Valley Conference openers? I thought so! Really, who would have thought that a Jake Odum-less Indiana State team would have beat Illinois State and that Northern Iowa would be outscored 32-19 by D.J. Balentine's Evansville Purple Aces. Over the next two days we have some good matchups that will further show what teams are made of and who will suceed in the toughest mid-major conference in basketball.

4:00 PM EST-Full Court/ESPN3
3-10 (0-1) Drake
at 7-6 (1-0) Missouri State

Team Resumés:

3-10 (0-1) Drake
Wins:
-IUPUI 73-60 (Home)
-Jackson State 76-66 (Home)
-Simpson (Non-Division I) 84-62 (Home)
"Should Not Have Happened" Losses:
-North Dakota 63-62 (Home)
Last Game:
-Loss to #16 Wichita State 66-58 (Home)
DES MOINES---Drake played very well against arguably the best team in "The Valley" last Wednesday in their Conference opener. Wichita State struggled to pull away for the first 38 minutes but eventually turned it on behind Junior star Ron Baker, who had 23 points on the night. Even Coach Greg Marshall knew how fortunate his team was to escape victorious as he was quoted saying "We (the Shockers) were lucky to get out of here (The Knapp Center) with a win." It was a close game throughout and at some times in the first half the Bulldogs actually led overthe  Shockers. Drake was led by seven foot Sophomore Jacob Enevold Jensen, who had 12 points to go along with 15 rebounds. The Bulldogs' top two leading scorers, Senior guard Gary Ricks Jr. and Freshman guard Reed Timmer, struggled against the Wichita State's back court's defense and shot a combined 5-25 (Ricks Jr. shot 4-16 and Timmer shot 1-9) from the field. The Bulldogs will no doubt need a better performance tonight against another great guard in Missouri State's Marcus Marshall, who comes in averaging a little under twenty points per game.
Players to Watch:
---#2 Gary Ricks Jr. (SR) 
-11.2 PPG, 3.7 RPG, & 2.5 APG.
---#12 Reed Timmer (FR) 
-10.8 PPG & 2.9 APG.
---#11 Jacob Enevold Jensen (SR) 
-8.4 PPG, 6.7 RPG, & 1.1 BPG.

7-6 (1-0) Missouri State
Solid Wins:
None.
"Should Not Have Happened" Losses:
Washington State 89-84 in Overtime in 5th Place Game of Great Alaska Shootout
Oral Roberts 80-61 (Road)
Last Game:
-Won against Southern Illinois 53-50 (Road)
---SIU's Anthony Beane technically won the individual battle of the scorers by scoring sixteen points in contrast to Marcus Marshall's twelve points but Missouri State got the win and a 1-0 start in conference play. Missouri State star Marcus Marshall had a very rough outing and shot four for twelve from the field including two for seven from downtown. The inaccuracy was contagious for sharpshooter Austin Ruder who shot one for eight on the night. Really the only players that could hit the basket for MSU on the given night was Camyn Boyce and Dorrian Williams who combined for eighteen points on seven for eight shooting. During the second half of the game, the Bears rose their lead to sixteen, twice, but SIU stayed persistent and railled to cut it down to three points, but no further as Missouri State's defense held the Salukis to 33% shooting on the evening. 
Players to Watch:
---#11 Marcus Marshall (JR) 
-21.1 PPG & 3.0 RPG.
---#2 Austin Ruder (SO) 
-8.7 PPG & 2.3 RPG.
---#23 Dorrian Williams (JR) 
-7.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG, & 4.5 APG.

Prediction:
If I am Marcus Marshall, I would be licking my chops at this matchup especially after the tough game he had at Southern Illinois. Drake's defense gives up about 70 points a game to opponents on average and I think that will occur tonight. To get straight to the point, Drake doesn't have good enough defenders to stop Marcus Marshall or Austin Ruder, who I expect will hit some threes and rebound from a terrible performance in Carbondale. Personally, I believe the Wichita State game was a fluke performace by the Bulldogs and that they will still take last or ninth in "The Valley." Drake just does not have enough scoring power from one player or the whole team to hang with the Bears, let alone in Springfield.
---Missouri State 72, Drake 57

7:00 PM EST-Full Court/ESPN3
7-7 (0-1) Southern Illinois
at 5-9 (0-1) Bradley

Team Resumés

7-7 (0-1) Southern Illinois
Solid Wins:
-SIU-Edwardsville 79-67 (Road)
"Should Not Have Happened" Losses:
-Southeast Missouri State 55-54 (Home)
-New Orleans 56-52 (Home)
Last Game:
-Loss to Missouri State 53-50 (Home)
---Nine seconds on the clock, Missouri State's Gavin Thurman inbounding the ball with the score Missouri State 53-50 over Southern Illinois. Thurman throws inbounds the ball, but it is an errant pass and Anthony Beane grabs it while he starts to dribble down court. More time ticks off the clock as Beane races up-court and fires a potential three point attempt for the tie. The ball spiraled through the air but clanked of the rim as the buzzer sounded. Missouri State 53, Southern Illinois 50. The Missouri Valley's third leading scorer, SIU's Anthony Beane struggled that evening as he finished the game four for thirteen from the field with sixteen points. Really the whole Salukis team struggled offensively as the four starters besides Beane (Caroline, O'Brien, Pendleton, & Smithpeters) also shot a combined four for thirteen. Overall Southern Illinois shot 33% from the field, which did not get the job done then and will not tonight.
Players to Watch:
---#25 Anthony Beane (JR) 
-18.6 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 1.5 SPG.
---#33 Sean O'Brien (SO) 
-10.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG, & 1.6 APG.
---#14 Jordan Caroline (FR) 
-9.4 PPG & 6.9 RPG.

5-9 (0-1) Bradley
Solid Wins:
-Central Michigan 84-73 (Home)
"Never Should Have Happened" Losses:
-Texas-Arlington 86-75 (Home)
-Robert Morris 68-61 (Home)
-UC Irvine 55-47 in the Semi-Final of the Las Vegas Holiday Hoops Classic.
-Arkansas-Little Rock 64-54 in the Consolation Championship of the Las Vegas Holiday Hoops Classic.
Last Game:
-Loss to Loyola-Illinois 64-49 (Road)
---The first two teams to play a conference game in the Missouri Valley Conference was the Bradley Braves and the Loyola-Illinois Ramblers. The game was back and forth going into the under eight TV time-out as the score was Loyola 22-17. The last seven minutes of the first half made the difference and shiffted momentum completely in favor of the Ramblers as they went on a 15-6 run to make the score 37-23 Loyola going into halftime. Bradley never recovered in the second half as Milton Doyle, Christian Thomas, and the Ramblers trotted on to a 64-49 victory. The absence of Braves' leading scorer Warren Jones played an outcome as Juco transfer Tramique Sutherland could not score efficiently alone and shot three for thirteen. In addition, Auston Barnes shot five for eleven from the field. The thing that really hurt the Braves was their three-points shooting, which 15.8% (3-19) from beyond the arc. Tonight, Bradley has a legitimate chance against an in-state rival that will be fighting with them for seeding for Arch Madness in the next two months
Players to Watch:
---#5 Tramique Sutherland (JR)
-13.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG, & 3.0 APG.
---#4 Auston Barnes (SR) 
-11.3 PPG & 4.4 RPG.
---#24 Omari Grier (JR) 
-9.8 PPG & 2.6 APG.

Prediction:
---Both teams struggled shooting in their previous game so I am not really sure if the defenses will allow many points or if their offenses will continue to not be able to make buckets. I know Bradley does not have that strong of a home court advantage but I feel like it could play a bit of a factor tonight. Also, with the way the young players have struggled for the Salukis, I think a veteran Bradley Braves' team will be able to stop Beane, SIU's only scoring threat if the Sophomores and Freshman don't show up to play, and get their first conference win. Lastly (and this is just for fun), I predict that Bradley's Freshman Josh Cunningham will have a better overall game than Southern Illinois' Freshman, Jordan Caroline.
---Bradley 54, Southern Illinois 51

1:30 PM EST-ESPN3
11-2 (1-0) Evansville
at 5-8 (1-0) Indiana State

Team Resumés

11-2 (1-0) Evansville
Solid Wins:
-San Francisco 79-72 in Third Place Game of Gulf Coast Showcase.
-Wright State 86-78 (Home)
-Belmont without Craig Bradshaw 65-62 (Road)
-Ohio 81-69 in Overtime (Home)
Losses:
-Green Bay 64-62 in Semi-Final of Gulf Coast Showcase.
-Murray State 81-79 (Home)
Last Game:
-Won against #23 Northern Iowa 52-49 (Home)
---I am not sure if Wichita State, Northern Iowa, or the rest of "The Valley" is ready for it but here comes the Evansville Purple Aces. Evansville rallied from a sixteen point deficit against Northern Iowa on New Years to defeat the twenty third ranked team in the country, 52-49. The Purple Aces finally figured out UNI's great defense not by hitting jumpers but by rebounds offensively (UE had 14 offensive rebounds while UNI had 3), which led to second-chance opportunities. Egidijus Mockevicius recorded another double-double with his 12 points and 13 rebounds while guarding the paint for the Purple Aces. The Missouri Valley Conference's leading scorer, D.J. Balentine was held to seventeen points, which broke his streak of eight straight games that he scored over twenty points. Expect Balentine to "get his" against an Indiana State squad that is trying to prove they can still win in the conference without Jake Odum.
Players to Watch:
---#31 D.J. Balentine (JR)
-22.1 PPG, 3.1 RPG, & 3.6 APG.
---#55 Egidijus Mockevicius
-13.8 PPG, 10.4 RPG, & 2.2 BPG.
---#50 Blake Simmons (SO)
-8.2 PPG, 2.1 RPG, & 2.4 APG.

5-8 (1-0) Indiana State
Solid Wins:
None as of now.
"Never Should Have Happened" Losses:
Eastern Illinois 60-56 (Home)
Missouri-Kansas City 73-70 in Double Overtime.
Last Game:
-Won against Illinois State 63-61 (Road)
---No Jake Odum...no problem. The Indiana State Sycamores pulled off a good road win against Illinois State earlier this week. The Redbirds had a 25-23 lead at the break but in the second half the Sycamores would obtain a 53-44 lead with about six minutes remaining. Illinois State never stopped fighting and eventually tied the game at 61 with forty seconds left. Indiana State had the ball and they decided to try to get a bucket from leading scorer, Khristian Smith, who had a quiet night before he hit the game-winning shot to give the Sycamores a 63-61 lead with 5.8 seconds remaining. The Redbirds raced the ball down court but the Indiana State Sycamores' defense steped up by intercepting Illinois State's Tony Wills pass and then running out the clock. 
Players to Watch:
---#1 Khristian Smith (JR) 
-12.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, & 1.9 APG.
---#11 Devonte Brown (JR) 
-12.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, & 2.7 APG.
---#4 Brenton Scott (FR) 
-10.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG, & 1.5 APG.
Prediction:
We have a mathup of the teams with undefeated conference records today in the Missouri Valley Conference as the Evansville Purple Aces travel up Highway 41 to take on the Indiana State Sycamores. D.J. Balentine was individually held under twenty points against twenty third ranked Northern Iowa on Thursday and guarentee you, he is anxious to have a twenty plus points performance against the Indiana State Sycamores, who are trying to prove to the rest of their conference that the win against Illinois State was not a fluke. Freshman Brenton Scott will have to have a good game like last Wednesday for the Sycamores to win and the veterans like Smith, Brown, Gant, and Kitchell will need to have better performances than last time out. Still with improved performances, I am not sure if it will be enough to stop a red-hot Evansville team looking to compete for the conference title.
---Evansville 69, Indiana State 55

 3:30 PM EST-ESPN3
11-2 (1-0) Loyola (IL)
at 11-2 (0-1) 23. Northern Iowa

Team Resumés
11-2 (1-0) Loyola (IL)
Solid Wins:
-Kent State 69-61 (Road)
-Texas Tech 62-44 in the Semi-Finals of the Las Vegas Classic.
-Boise State 48-45 in the Championship of the Las Vegas Classic.
"Never Should Have Happened" Losses:
-Tulane 83-70 (Home)
Last Game:
-Won against Bradley 64-49 (Home)
---The Loyola Ramblers were all over the Bradley Braves when the two met for their first conference game of the season. The Ramblers dominated Bradley early and went on a 27-6 run to take a 37-23 advantage going into halftime. The second half was more of the same as Loyola easily won by the final score of 64-49. Shocking to me was the fact that Christian Thomas and Devon Turk, not Loyola star Milton Doyle, provided the big scoring of twenty and nineteen points respectively on twelve for eighteen shooting combined. Doyle still had a solid outting of seven points with five assists as he focused on facilitating. We should all expect Doyle to score more thanhe did Wednesday today against UNI.
Players to Watch:
---#32 Christian Thomas (SR) 
-13.4 PPG & 4.1 RPG. 
---#35 Milton Doyle (SO) 
-12.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG, & 4.2 APG. 
---#4 Devon Turk (JR)
-7.7 PPG & 2.4 RPG.

11-2 (0-1) 23. Northern Iowa
Solid Wins
-Stephen F. Austin 79-77 in Overtime (Road)
-Virginia Tech 73-54 in Semi-Final of Cancun Challenge.
-Northwestern 61-42 in Championship of Cancun Challenge.
-Iowa 56-44 (in Des Moines)
Only Loss:
-VCU 93-87 in Overtime (Road)
Last Game:
-Loss to Evansville 52-49 (Road)
---On Thursday, Northern Iowa Panthers played the half of basketball that a team cannot play poorly if they are hoping to win as they were defeated because of second half struggles by the Evansville Purple Aces. UNI played very well in the first half as their defense was containing Evansville's star scorer D.J. Balentine but the second half was a different story. Evansville was able to get offensive boards, which led to easy putbacks for the Purple Aces. Also, the Panthers struggled shooting in the second twenty minutes as it seemed like every shot was rattling out or bouncing outside the cylinder. The game went down to the final minutes, which saw Seth Tuttle called for an offensive hooking call resulting in his disqualification since it was his fifth foul, and Wes Washpun deciding to score an easy layup with less than two seconds when down three points. Jalen Brown made all four free throws down the stretch for Evansville as at the end of the game UNI's Jeremy Morgan fired a desperation three pointer that was air-balled. Although the loss, Seth Tuttle had one of his best games this season as he scored eighteen points while grabbing five rebounds. 
Players to Watch:
---#10 Seth Tuttle (SR)
-14.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG, & 3.2 APG.
---#11 Wes Washpun (JR)
-11.7 PPG, 3.9 RPG, & 2.8 APG.
---#4 Paul Jesperson (JR)
-6.7 PPG & 3.1 RPG.

Prediction:
I am really looking forward to this matchup because today we will find out if Loyola is a contender in "The Valley." Loyola will need  big performances from Thomas and Turk to pull of the win against the Panthers. I am saying it right now, expect Milton Doyle to play a very good game. Doyle has not been in double-digits for pointd in his last five games and I expect that to change today. I look for the Sophomore from Chicago to have about 15-20 points on this afternoon. Really the only thing, Northern Iowa needs to do differently from Thursday is play how they did the first half of the Evansville game in both halves. In addition, the Panthers need to limit their opponents activity on the offensive boards because UNI allowed fourteen offensive rebounds to Evansville. In my opinion it will take a total team effort for the Ramblers to come out of Cedar Rapids with a win.
---Northern Iowa 72, Loyola (IL) 57

5:30 PM EST-ESPNU
8-5 (0-1) Illinois State
at 11-2 (1-0) 16. Wichita State

Team Resumés

8-5 (0-1) Illinois State
Solid Wins:
-Old Dominion 64-45 in the Semi-Final of Paradise Jam.
-DePaul 78-72 (Road)
"Never Should Have Happened" Losses
-Utah State 60-55 (Home Opener)
Last Game:
-Loss to Indiana State 63-61 (Home)
---Illinois State was the favorite against the Indiana State Sycamoes but Indiana State did not play like an underdog. After being down two points at halftime, the Sycamores took control of the game behind Tre' Bennett and Justin Gant who helped the school from Terre Haute shoot 62% percent in the second half. In fact, the Sycamores had a 53-44 lead with about six minutes remaining in the game. The game was over right? No it was not over, as unexpectedly Tony Wills and MiKyle McIntosh helped lead Illinois State to a comeback that was capped off by a Wills duece with 34.4 seconds left to tie the game at 61. The problem for the Redbirds was that Indiana State had a chance to leave Normal, Illinois, happy. Coach Greg Lansing drew up a play that went to the Sycamores' leading scorer, Khristian Smith, and he hit the jump shot with 5.8 seconds to give the Sycamores a 63-61 lead. After one timeout by each coach, Tony Wills, who was having the best game for Illinois State with 16 points and 5 rebounds, moved the ball upcout but his pass was intercepted by an Indiana State defender who ran the rest of the time off the clock. The Cardinals did not successfully take over the tree.
Players to Watch:
---#3 Daishon Knight (SR) 
-14.4 PPG, 3.2 RPG, & 2.7 APG.
---#4 Bobby Hunter (SR) 
-9.6 PPG, 1.8 RPG, & 1.7 APG.
---#22 Reggie Lynch (SO) 
-8.1 PPG & 5.7 RPG

11-2 (1-0) 16. Wichita State
Solid Wins:
-Memphis 71-56 (in Sioux Falls)
-St. Louis 81-52 (Home)
-Seton Hall 77-68 (Home)
-Alabama 53-52 (Home)
Losses:
-#25 Utah 69-68 in Overtime (Road)
-George Washington 60-54 in the Championship of the Diamond Head Classic.
Last Game:
-Won against Drake 66-58 (Home)
---Most Shocker fans knew for certain that is wasn't pretty but in the end it counts as a win. The Wichita State Shockers faced much adversity to begin their conference season as their plane's landing gear malfunctioned after takeoff from Wichita, which caused the plane to have to return to the Wichita airport instead of continuing towards Des Moines. On top of the airline trouble, some players on the team played sick through illness. It took a total team effort and a big effort from Junior star Ron Baker to eventually fight off the pesky Drake Bulldogs. Baker ended up with 23 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists to lead the Shockers. Alongside Baker, Tekele Cotton netted 17 points for Wichita State. Personally I think this matchup will prove to be a wake up call for Wichifa State and help the team play better going forward through conference play.
Players to Watch:
---#31 Ron Baker (JR) 
-17.1 PPG, 4.8 RPG, & 2.2 APG.
---#12 Darius Carter (SR) 
-11.3 PPG & 6.3 RPG.
---#23 Fred Van Vleet (JR) 
-11.3 PPG, 4.2 RPG, & 5.2 APG.
---#32 Tekele Cotton (SR) 
-9.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, & 2.9 APG.

Prediction:
I really believe the Drake game will show the Shockers that they can defeated, which will motivate them to play harder and not just toss their name at an opponent and expect to win. While Wichita State won ugly, the Illinois State Redbirds really let me down with the Indiana State game at home. The loss has perplexed me so much that I am confused whether or not they are a middle of the conference team like I had originally thought. One thing for sure is that the Redbirds will need points to win this evening and the guy that can put up points in a hurry is Daishon Knight. Knight shot terribly against the Sycamores and only tallied five points on one for eight shooting. I do not see Knight shooting one for eight tonight so Wichita State better be prepared for a "real Knight in shining armor" to appear. While the Shockers will try to stop one player (Knight), Illinois State has too many weapons to stop on the Shockers and will not be able to minimize them all.
---Wichita State 72, Illinois State 57

PW's Prediction Record after Saturday: 45-25 (5-2 in the MVC) 

THE ROAD TO ARCH MADNESS
It is never to early to begin looking ahead to March so here is the seedings and matchups if the 2015 Missouri Valley Conference Tournament started today.
Arch Madness if it Started Today
1. Wichita State 11-2 (1-0)
2. Evansville 11-2 (1-0)
3. Loyola (IL) 11-2 (1-0)
4. Missouri State 7-6 (1-0)
5. Indiana State 5-8 (1-0)
6. Northern Iowa 11-2 (0-1)
7. Illinois State 8-5 (0-1)
8. Southern Illinois 7-7 (0-1)
9. Bradley 5-9 (0-1)
10. Drake 3-10 (0-1)

Thursday Night
G1: SIU vs BRAD (Teams Play Tonight)
G2: ILST vs DRAKE
Friday Afternoon
G3: WSU vs W-G1
G4: MOST vs INST
Friday Night
G5: LOY vs UNI (Teams Play Tomorrow)
G6: EVAN vs W-G2


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