Saturday, January 10, 2015

PW's MVC Men's Basketball Predictions for (Jan 10/Jan 11)

By Peyton Wesner

Milton Doyle leads the pack to victory in Evansville and the Indiana State Sycamores proved they can shut down any super star in "The Valley" by containing Missouri State's Marcus Marshall. Those were my headlines after Wednesday's slate of Missouri Valley Conference action. More headlines to come this weekend? I think there could be since both undefeated teams (Wichita State and Indiana State) head on the road to Chicago and Carbondale respectively. Upsets coming? Find out what I think here!

January 10, 2015
2:00 PM EST
11-4 (1-2) Evansville
at 6-10 (1-2) Bradley

Team Resumés

11-4 (1-2) Evansville
Solid Wins:
-San Francisco 79-72 in Third Place Game of Gulf Coast Showcase.
-Wright State 86-78 (Home)
-Belmont without Craig Bradshaw 65-62 (Road)
-Ohio 81-69 in Overtime (Home)
-#23 Northern Iowa 52-49 (Home)
Losses:
-Green Bay 64-62 in Semi-Final of Gulf Coast Showcase.
-Murray State 81-79 (Home)
-Indiana State 79-75 in Overtime (Road)
Last Game:
-Loss to Loyola (IL) 71-70 (Home)
Players to Watch:
---#31 D.J. Balentine (JR)
-21.3 PPG, 3.3 RPG, & 3.8 APG.
---#55 Egidijus Mockevicius
-13.7 PPG, 10.6 RPG, & 2.5 BPG.
---#5 Mislav Brzoja (SO)
-8.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG, & 3.3 APG.
---#50 Blake Simmons (SO)
-8.4 PPG, 1.9 RPG, & 2.4 APG.

6-10 (1-2) Bradley
Solid Wins:
-Central Michigan 84-73 (Home)
-Southern Illinois 63-44 (Home)
"Never Should Have Happened" Losses:
-Texas-Arlington 86-75 (Home)
-Robert Morris 68-61 (Home)
-UC Irvine 55-47 in the Semi-Final of the Las Vegas Holiday Hoops Classic.
-Arkansas-Little Rock 64-54 in the Consolation Championship of the Las Vegas Holiday Hoops Classic.
Last Game:
-Loss to #15 Wichita State 63-43 (Road)
Players to Watch:
---#5 Tramique Sutherland (JR)
-12.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG, & 3.1 APG.
---#4 Auston Barnes (SR) 
-11.4 PPG & 4.4 RPG.
---#24 Omari Grier (JR) 
-9.5 PPG & 2.5 APG.

Prediction:
Well which ever way I pick, in Evansville and Indiana State games I pick wrongly. In fact all five of my Missouri Valley Conference losses this season have came in Evansville and Indiana State games. But this afternoon I will continue on the Purple Aces bandwagon and hope they can get the job done in Peoria. Evansville was beat on, what was basically, a buzzer-beater Wednesday night as Milton Doyle drove the lane and dropped it off to his fellow scorer Christian Thomas for the game winning layup with 0.1 seconds left in the game. While UE was being defeated at the very end of the game, Bradley was being dominated by Wichita State. The ironic part was that the Braves were leading at halftime by one point but then the Shockers caught fire and outscored the Braves 36 to 15 in the second half. 36 to 15! Bradley just couldn't put the ball in the basket as the MVC Preseason favorite prevailed. Will I pick another UE game wrongly today? I hope not, as I previously mentioned I will pick Evansville for two reasons...Balentine and Mockevicius. The two make a very good duo and may be the best guard-center combo in the conference. I just do not see Bradley's trio of Sutherland, Barnes, & Grier playing better than Balentine and Mockevicius. Sutherland has struggled from the field since he made his debut for Bradley and shoots 37.1% coming into today's game. That just isn't good enough to take down the leading scorer (D.J. Balentine) and rebounder (Egidijus Mockevicius) in "The Valley."
---Evansville 65, Bradley 59

4:00 PM EST-Full Court/ESPN3
13-2 (2-1) Northern Iowa
at 3-12 (0-3) Drake

Team Resumés

13-2 (2-1) Northern Iowa
Solid Wins:
-Stephen F. Austin 79-77 in Overtime (Road)
-Virginia Tech 73-54 in Semi-Final of Cancun Challenge.
-Northwestern 61-42 in Championship of Cancun Challenge.
-Iowa 56-44 (in Des Moines)
-Loyola (IL) 67-58 (Home) 
Losses:
-VCU 93-87 in Overtime (Road)
-Evansville 52-49 (Road)
Last Game:
-Win Against Southern Illinois 55-39 (Home)
Players to Watch:
---#10 Seth Tuttle (SR)
-14.6 PPG, 6.1 RPG, & 3.1 APG.
---#11 Wes Washpun (JR)
-10.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG, & 2.9 APG.
---#14 Nate Buss (SR)
-7.0 PPG & 2.2 RPG.

3-12 (0-3) Drake
Wins:
-IUPUI 73-60 (Home)
-Jackson State 76-66 (Home)
-Simpson (Non-Division I) 84-62 (Home)
"Should Not Have Happened" Losses:
-North Dakota 63-62 (Home)
Last Game:
-Loss to Illinois State 81-45 (Road)
Players to Watch:
---#12 Reed Timmer (FR) 
-10.3 PPG & 2.8 APG.
---#2 Gary Ricks Jr. (SR) 
-10.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG, & 2.2 APG.
---#3 Jordan Daniels (SR)
-8.7 PPG.
---#25 Chris Caird (SR)
-8.3 PPG & 2.1 RPG.
---#11 Jacob Enevold Jensen (SR) 
-8.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG, & 1.0 BPG.

Prediction:
Northern Iowa has really bounced back from their Missouri Valley Conference opening loss to the Evansville Purple Aces on New Years Day. Since the comeback win by Evansville, the Panthers have rolled off two wins by a winning margin of 12.5 points per game to the opponents of Loyola (IL) and Southern Illinois. In their last game, star Seth Tuttle shined as he scored 24 points while grabbing 8 rebounds. Can Jacob Enevold Jensen and the Drake Bulldogs stop their run? Enevold Jensen has really became the anchor down low for Drake but despite his improvement the team is winless in conference play coming into today's game. Really, besides the good game they had in their loss against Wichita State to start the conference season, Drake has played absolutely awful while shooting a combined 30.2% in both contests. Will it really change against one of the best, if not the best, defensive team in the conference? I do not see Drake winning today but I do expect Seth Tuttle to have another big game of around 18 points and 7 rebounds. Also, the Bulldogs' guards will not be able to guard Wes Washpun as I see him being able to drive the lane and pass it to three-point shooters like Buss and Bohanon.
---Northern Iowa 67, Drake 50

4:00 PM EST-Full Court/ESPN3
7-8 (3-0) Indiana State
at 7-9 (0-3) Southern Illinois

Team Resumés

7-8 (3-0) Indiana State
Solid Wins:
-Illinois State 63-61 (Road)
-Evansville 79-75 in Overtime (Home)
"Never Should Have Happened" Losses:
Eastern Illinois 60-56 (Home)
Missouri-Kansas City 73-70 in Double Overtime.
Last Game:
-Win Against Missouri State 71-56 (Home)
Players to Watch:
---#11 Devonte Brown (JR) 
-11.8 PPG, 4.9 RPG, & 2.9 APG.
---#1 Khristian Smith (JR) 
-11.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG, & 2.1 APG.
---#4 Brenton Scott (FR) 
-10.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#5 Justin Gant (SR)
-9.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG, & 1.1 BPG.

7-9 (0-3) Southern Illinois
Solid Wins:
-SIU-Edwardsville 79-67 (Road)
"Should Not Have Happened" Losses:
-Southeast Missouri State 55-54 (Home)
-New Orleans 56-52 (Home)
Last Game:
-Loss to Northern Iowa 55-39 (Road)
Players to Watch:
---#25 Anthony Beane (JR) 
-16.9 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 1.4 SPG.
---#33 Sean O'Brien (SO) 
-9.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG, & 1.1 SPG.
---#14 Jordan Caroline (FR) 
-9.4 PPG & 6.7 RPG.

Prediction:
I am all in now! I have learned my lesson! The Indiana Sycamores have contained three of the Missouri Valley's top scorers (Illinois State's Daishon Knight (15.1 PPG), Evansville's D.J. Balentine (21.3 PPG), and Missouri State's Marcus Marshall (20.2 PPG)) in the last three games. In their three contests, Indiana State's opponent's leading scorer has shot a combined 8-34 from the field for a total of 31 points. That is not a lot of points compared to the 56 points the three's averages combine for. The defense has led Indiana State to all three of their wins, two of which have came in close matchups. Today at four o'clock Eastern Standard Time, Anthony Beane and the Southern Illinois Salukis hope to get their first conference win in front of their home crowd. SIU came close in their home opener against Missouri State on New Years Eve but since they have been blownout by the Bradley Braves and the Northern Iowa Panthers on the road. Saluki star Anthony Beane has played awful in conference play and is averaging half of his season average at 8.3 points per game. Should be an easy player to shut-down for the Sycamores right? I think it could prove harder than it sounds but Beane did shoot 0 for 10 at Northern Iowa on Wednesday night. I believe Indiana State will edge Southern Illinois at SIU Arena behind a good team effort from Brown, Smith, Scott, Gant, Bennett, and Kitchell.
---Indiana State 56, Southern Illinois 53

January 11, 2015
3:00 PM EST-ESPN3
9-6 (1-2) Illinois State
at 8-7 (2-1) Missouri State

Team Resumés

9-6 (1-2) Illinois State
Solid Wins:
-Old Dominion 64-45 in the Semi-Final of Paradise Jam.
-DePaul 78-72 (Road)
"Never Should Have Happened" Losses
-Utah State 60-55 (Home Opener)
Last Game:
-Win Against Drake 81-45 (Home)
Players to Watch:
---#3 Daishon Knight (SR) 
-15.1 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.6 APG, & 1.3 SPG.
---#4 Bobby Hunter (SR) 
-8.9 PPG & 1.7 RPG.
---#22 Reggie Lynch (SO) 
-8.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, & 3.0 BPG.

8-7 (2-1) Missouri State
Solid Wins:
-Southern Illinois 53-50 (Road)
"Should Not Have Happened" Losses:
-Washington State 89-84 in Overtime in 5th Place Game of Great Alaska Shootout
-Oral Roberts 80-61 (Road)
Last Game:
-Loss to Indiana State 71-56 (Road)
Players to Watch:
---#11 Marcus Marshall (JR) 
-20.2 PPG, 3.2 RPG, & 1.7 APG.
---#2 Austin Ruder (SO) 
-9.3 PPG & 2.3 RPG.
---#23 Cameron Boyce (JR)
-7.3 PPG & 6.0 RPG.

Prediction:
Marcus Marshall cannot do it all for Missouri State all the time. Wednesday the Missouri State Bears were defeated by the Indiana State Sycamores in Terre Haute, Indiana. The game was competitive throughout but eventually the Trees took the game in a fifteen point win. The key for Indiana State success, like it was in their MVC opener against Illinois State, was stopping the Bears' star, Marcus Marshall. Marshall had a cold night at the Hulman Center as he shot three for twelve from the field for a total of eleven points. The game was Marshall's worse performance of the season but coming back home to Springfield should help him get his touch back in today's important matchup with Illinois State. The Illinois State Redbirds finally got into the win column in conference play with their slaughtering of the Drake Bulldogs. Illinois State had four starters with double-digit points in the victory (Daishon Knight 15 pts, Paris Lee 12 pts, Tony Wills 10 pts, MiKyle McIntosh 10 pts) as the team shot 56.6% from the field and 42.9% from beyond the arc. Personally I doubt the Redbirds will once again shoot over 50% today for two reasons. For one, the game is on the road, which means unfamiliar baskets and an unfriendly environment. In addition, Illinois State's field goal percentage average is at 44.6% meaning that they were on fire in Redbird Arena against Drake. Some other bad news for the Redbirds is that I doubt Marcus Marshall will have his second bad game in a row. The Junior from St. Paul, Minnesota is a special talent and normally does not have one poor game yet alone two back-to-back. Expect Marshall and the Bears to re-find themselves back at JQH Arena and outlast the Redbirds.
---Missouri State 61, Illinois State 57

5:00 PM EST-ESPNU
13-2 (3-0) 15. Wichita State
at 12-3 (2-1) Loyola (IL)

Team Resumés

13-2 (3-0) 15. Wichita State
Solid Wins:
-Memphis 71-56 (in Sioux Falls)
-St. Louis 81-52 (Home)
-Seton Hall 77-68 (Home)
-Alabama 53-52 (Home)
-Illinois State 70-62 (Home)
Losses:
-#25 Utah 69-68 in Overtime (Road)
-George Washington 60-54 in the Championship of the Diamond Head Classic.
Last Game:
-Win Against Bradley 63-43 (Home)
Players to Watch:
---#31 Ron Baker (JR) 
-16.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.3 APG, & 1.2 SPG.
---#12 Darius Carter (SR) 
-12.0 PPG & 6.2 RPG.
---#23 Fred Van Vleet (JR) 
-11.1 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 5.5 APG, & 2.0 SPG.
---#32 Tekele Cotton (SR) 
-9.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.6 APG, & 1.4 SPG.

12-3 (2-1) Loyola (IL)
Solid Wins:
-Kent State 69-61 (Road)
-Texas Tech 62-44 in the Semi-Finals of the Las Vegas Classic.
-Boise State 48-45 in the Championship of the Las Vegas Classic.
-Bradley 64-49 (Home)
"Never Should Have Happened" Losses:
-Tulane 83-70 (Home)
Last Game:
-Win Against Evansville 71-70 (Road)
Players to Watch:
---#32 Christian Thomas (SR) 
-13.1 PPG & 4.3 RPG. 
---#35 Milton Doyle (SO) 
-12.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 4.0 APG, & 1.1 SPG.
---#4 Devon Turk (JR)
-7.6 PPG, 2.3 RPG, & 1.0 SPG.

Prediction;
"Doyle drives the middle of the lane looking for an open teammate. He jumps into the air with three seconds left and drops it down to Christian Thomas. Thomas goes up and MAKES THE LAYUP WITH ONE TENTH OF A SECOND LEFT! THE RAMBLERS ARE GOING TO WIN! THE RAMBLERS ARE GOING TO WIN!" The Loyola (IL) Ramblers have enough momentum to make some Wichita State Shocker fans "upset" when seven o'clock Eastern Standard Time rolls around this evening. The Ramblers won their first Missouri Valley Conference road game since joining the conference with their 71-70 victory over D.J. Balentine's Purple Aces. Loyola shot 50.9% from the field on Wednesday night and made eight three pointers. While the "Thriller in Evansville" wrapped up at the Ford Center, the Wichita State Shockers were pounding the Bradley Braves with a 36-15 second half scoring effort that took away the Braves' halftime lead and gave the Shockers a twenty-point win. Is Loyola the challenger to Wichita State's Missouri Valley Conference throne? I personally do not foresee Loyola defeating the Wichita State Shockers this evening but I must say this...the Ramblers have a great opportunity to do so. The way the Ramblers look at times concerns me. What I mean by this, is that sometimes during the course of the game--and I saw this happen at the beginning of the Evansville game-- the offense stutters with no flow. Milton Doyle, Loyola's best player commands the offense but what if Wichita State's Fred Van Vleet or Ron Baker puts pressure on Doyle nonstop ultimately making him relinquish the ball to someone else? That is my fear for the Ramblers tonight. In addition, I do not believe Loyola can score enough against the Shockers if it becomes a high-scoring affair. Wichita State has four consistent scoring options while Loyola has two (Doyle and Thomas). So if I am doing the math right it will be very hard for Milton Doyle and Christian Thomas to put up the same amount of points as Wichita State's Ron Baker, Darius Carter, Fred Van Vleet, and Tekele Cotton. Some may think I am overanalyzing this game like I did Wednesday by picking Evansville over Loyola rather than going with my gut, but maybe I am not studying the matchups enough.
---Wichita State 64, Loyola (IL) 57

THE ROAD TO ARCH MADNESS
It is never to early to begin looking ahead to March so here is the seedings and matchups if the 2015 Missouri Valley Conference Tournament started today.
Arch Madness if it Started Today
1. Wichita State 13-2 (3-0)
2. Indiana State 7-8 (3-0) 
3. Northern Iowa 13-2 (2-1)
4. Loyola (IL) 12-3 (2-1) 
5. Missouri State 8-7 (2-1)
6. Evansville 11-4 (1-2)
7. Bradley 6-10 (1-2)
8. Illinois State 9-6 (1-2)
9. Southern Illinois 7-9 (0-3)
10. Drake 3-12 (0-3)

Thursday Night
G1: ILST vs SIU 
G2: BRAD vs DRAKE
Friday Afternoon
G3: WSU vs W-G1
G4: LOY vs MSU 
Friday Night
G5: UNI vs UE (UE First Meeting at Ford Center (UE))
G6: INST vs W-G2

PW's Prediction Record Coming into Today: 71-30 (13-5 in the MVC) 



No comments:

Post a Comment