Thursday, January 22, 2015

PW's OVC Men's Basketball Predictions (Jan 22)

By Peyton Wesner

7:00 PM EST
7-13 (2-3) Morehead State
at 9-10 (1-5) Tennessee Tech

7-13 (2-3) Morehead State
Conference Wins:
-Southeast Missouri State 70-57 (Road)
-SIU Edwardsville 91-63 (Home)
"Never Should Have Happened" Losses:
-American 51-46 (In Ruston)
-UAB 58-48 (Road)
-Oakland 70-68 in Overtime 70-68 (Home)
-Northern Kentucky 83-60 (Home)
Last Game:
-Loss To Eastern Illinois 65-62 (Home)
Key Players:
---#22 Angelo Warner (SR)
-12.8 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.8 APG, & 1.7 SPG.
---#32 Brent Arrington (JR)
-10.5 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.1 RPG, & 1.9 SPG.
---#3 Corban Collins (SO)
-9.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.8 APG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#50 Billy Reader (SR)
-8.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG, & 1.0 BPG.
---#15 Kareem Storey (SR)
-7.5 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 4.8 RPG, & 1.5 SPG.

9-10 (1-5) Tennessee Tech
Solid Wins:
-Chattanooga 69-67 (Home)
-Lipscomb 84-79 (Home)
-North Florida 82-80 (Road)
-North Florida 87-84 (Home)
Losses to Non-Undefeated Conference Teams 
-SIU Edwardsville 85-62 (Road)
-Tennessee-Martin 63-60 (Home)
Last Game:
-Loss To Southeast Missouri State 65-61 (Road)
Key Players:
---#33 Charles Jackson (JR)
-13.6 PPG, 9.4 RPG, & 1.3 BPG.
---#32 Dwan Caldwell (SR)
-11.9 PPG & 5.2 RPG.
---#12 Torrance Rowe (JR)
-10.6 PPG, 2.1 RPG, & 2.1 APG.
---#23 Josiah Moore (JR)
-9.5 PPG & 5.6 RPG.

Prediction:
In most cases going with home team is smart in a game with evenly matched teams. Tonight I am hoping that is the case. Each team is coming off a loss as last Saturday, Tennessee Tech was narrowly edged by Southeast Missouri State while Morehead State was beaten by league surprise Eastern Illinois. With that being said, I feel Tennessee Tech has a slight advantage based on home-court  but nonetheless the teams each have a few scorers as the game could go either way.
---Tennessee Tech 66, Morehead State 65

8:00 PM EST
6-12 (1-3) Austin Peay
at 7-10 (3-3) SIU Edwardsville

6-12 (1-3) Austin Peay
Solid Wins:
-North Florida 65-60 (Home)
-Tennessee State 69-68 (Home)
Conference Losses:
-Jacksonville State 71-59 (Road)
-Tennessee Tech 72-56 (Road)
Last Game:
-Lost To Belmont 89-83 (Road)
Key Players:
---#5 Chris Horton (JR)
-12.5 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 2.3 BPG, & 1.3 SPG.
---#11 Khalil Davis (JR)
-11.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG & 2.5 APG.
---#15 Chris Freeman (SR)
-10.1 PPG & 4.8 RPG.
---#24 Ed Davis (SR)
-10.1 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 1.9 APG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#4 Josh Robinson (FR)
-8.6 PPG.

7-10 (3-3) SIU Edwardsville
Conference Wins:
-Jacksonville State 73-57 (Home)
-Tennessee Tech 85-62 (Home)
-Tennessee State 45-38 (Home)
Conference Losses:
-Belmont 73-69 (Road)
-Morehead State 91-63 (Road)
Last Game:
-Lost To Eastern Kentucky 78-62 (Rpad)
Key Players:
---#1 Kris Davis (SR)
-14.5 PPG, 3.8 RPG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#32 Donivine Stewart (JR)
-9.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 4.4 APG, & 1.5 SPG.
---#23 Rozell Nunn (SR)
-9.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.7 APG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#3 Keaton Jackson (SR)
-8.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG, & 2.0 BPG.
---#30 Michael Messer (SR)
-7.9 PPG & 3.1 RPG.

Prediction:
With double-double monster Chris Horton on their team, a person would think Austin Peay would be a middle of the pack team in the Ohio Valley. Despite personal expectations, the Governors have yet to look like the team people in Clarksville, Tennessee, hoped it would be. Austin Peay's problem is that they do not get consistent performances from the players around Horton, which ultimately leads to games like Tennessee Tech where they are blown out by an awful team. Their opponent tonight, SIU Edwardsville, has a very experienced group of players that has their fans hoping that the school will make some heads turn around the conference. The Cougars are led by guard Kris Davis, who has had a terrific career in the program. Since both teams are coming off a loss in their last game, I believe the factor that will decide the game is who scores more Austin Peay's Chris Horton or SIUE's Kris Davis. Tonight I believe Davis' shots will struggle to fall as the Governors get back on the winning trail behind a another double-double from Horton.
---Austin Peay 79, SIU Edwardsville 69

8:00 PM EST
11-6 (3-1) Eastern Kentucky
at 8-12 (1-5) Jacksonville State

11-6 (3-1) Eastern Kentucky
Solid Wins:
-#18 Miami 72-44 (Road)
-Tennessee-Martin 66-58 (Road)
-Southeast Missouri State 68-55 (Road)
Questionable Losses:
-East Tennessee State 63-60 (Home)
-Florida Atlantic 69-66 (Road)
-Eastern Illinois 72-65 (Home)
Last Game:
-Win Against SIU Edwardsville 78-62 (Home)
Key Players:
---#2 Corey Walden (SR)
-19.1 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.5 APG, & 2.7 SPG.
---#42 Eric Stultz (SR)
-13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG & 2.4 APG.
---#22 Timmy Knipp (SR)
-9.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.0 APG, & 1.0 BPG.
---#32 Ja'Mill Powell (JR)
-8.9 PPG & 1.8 RPG.
---#3 Denzel Richardson (JR)
-8.1 PPG & 4.1 RPG.

8-12 (1-5) Jacksonville State
Solid Wins:
-UNC Asheville 64-55 (Home)
-Austin Peay 71-59 (Home)
Losses to Non-Undefeated Conference Teams:
-SIU Edwardsville 73-57 (Road)
-Southeast Missouri State 69-52 (Home)
Last Game:
-Loss To Tennessee-Martin 55-52 (Road)
Key Players:
---#11 Darion Rackley (SR)
-14.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.8 APG, & 1.1 SPG.
---#23 D.J. Felder (SR)
-9.9 PPG & 5.3 RPG.
---#1 Avery Moore (SR)
-8.6 PPG & 1.9 RPG.
---#2 JaQuail Townser (JR)
-8.2 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 3.7 APG, & 1.4 SPG.

Prediction:
Again this season, Eastern Kentucky is one of the contenders in the Ohio Valley that has a chance to sneak past their opposition and into the NCAA Tournament. Last season, the Colonials upset both the second seeded Murray State Racers and first seeded Belmont Bruins to march on to the "Big Dance" as the 2014 Ohio Valley Conference Tournament Champions. This season, Eastern Kentucky is led by now Seniors Corey Walden, who is the conference's second leading scorer, an Eric Stutz, who is a three-year starter for the program. Together the duo, with help from Timmy Knipp and Ja'Mill Powell, went into Miami and defeated the ranked Miami Hurricanes in non-conference play. Thus feat alone shows that the team is not only dangerous at home but on the road and should not be taken lightly. Jacksonville State can be taken lightly. The Gamecocks have had an absolutly terrible start to the conference season and tonight's task will not be any easier. Expect, the Colonials to play their style of basketball and continue to hold first place in the East Division with a win.
---Eastern Kentucky 70, Jacksonville State 58

8:00 PM EST
11-6 (3-1) UT Martin
at 11-7 (3-2) Belmont

11-6 (3-1) UT Martin
Conference Wins:
-Morehead State 75-72 in Overtime (Home)
-Tennessee Tech 63-60 (Road)
Losses to Non-Power Six Schools:
-Illinois State 64-54 (Road)
-Maryland-Eastern Shore 63-60 (Home)
-Eastern Kentucky 66-58 (Home)
Last Game:
-Win Against 55-52 Jacksonville State (Home)
Key Players:
---#24 Deville Smith (SR)
-14.1 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 4.6 APG & 1.9 STL.
---#30 Twymond Howard (JR)
-12.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG & 1.9 APG.
---#25 Marshun Newell (SR)
-11.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 3.2 APG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#3 Alex Anderson (JR)
-9.8 PPG, 1.9 RPG & 1.9 APG.

11-7 (3-2) Belmont
Solid Wins:
-Western Kentucky 64-63 (Road)
-Ohio 83-81 (Road)
-Middle Tennessee 63-59 (Home)
-SIU Edwardsville 73-69 (Home)
"Never Should Have Happened" Losses:
-Wright State 73-70 (Road)
-Eastern Illinois 84-73 (Road)
Last Game:
-Win Against Austin Peay 89-83 (Road)
Key Players:
---#23 Craig Bradshaw (JR)
-19.5 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 3.2 APG, & 1.9 SPG.
 ---#35 Evan Bradds (SO)
-14.2 PPG & 5.7 RPG.
---#20 Taylor Barnette (SO)
-11.5 PPG & 2.2 RPG
---#22 Reece Chamberlain (SR)
-7.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 6.1 APG, 1.9 SPG.

Prediction:
If it was not for Murray State at Eastern Illinois, this matchup would be the most intriguing game of the night. After a rare set of back-to-back losses, for the Belmont Bruins were getting ready for a game at Austin Peay. The team's identity was in question as the Bruins shot 24.3% from beyond the arc in the two losses. In addition, to the team's overall shooting struggle, Belmont star Craig Bradshaw was not performing up to par as he was held to under twenty points in the stretch of games. Fortunatly, the trends all changed with Austin Peay. On that night, the school from Nashville shot 45.5 (10-22) from the three point line and Bradshaw was back to scoring with a twenty points on the night. The offense's fluidity will be put to the test tonight  against a defensively sound Tennessee-Martin team. The Skyhawks are off to a very good start to the season and have a quartet of scorers that can counterpart Belmont. Since dropping the conference opener to Eastern Kentucky, Tennessee-Martin has survived three close games that were all decided by three points. Belmont is definately not a team to play around with and if the game is tight like the Skyhawks' past games have been, I see Belmont coming out without another blimesh. 
Belmont 77, UT Martin 74

9:00 PM EST-CBS College Sports
15-4 (5-0) Murray State
at 12-6 (6-0) Eastern Illinois

15-4 (5-0) Murray State
Solid Wins:
-Middle Tennessee 68-49 (Road)
-Drake 68-59 (in Nashville)
-Western Kentucky 93-81 (Home)
-Evansville 81-79 (Road)
-Illinois State 89-77 (Home)
-Southern Illinois 83-71 (Road)
-Belmont 92-77 (Home)
Non-Power Six Losses:
-Portland 64-61 (in Nashville)
-Valparaiso 93-58 (in Nashville)
Last Game:
-Win Against Tennessee State 91-72 (Home)
Key Players:
---#1 Cameron Payne (SO)
-18.4 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 5.9 APG, & 2.2 SPG.
---#4 Jarvis Williams (SR)
-16.4 PPG, 7.9 RPG, & 1.0 BPG.
---#31 Jeffery Moss (JR)
-11.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.4 APG, & 1.2 SPG.
---#22 T.J. Sapp (SR)
-10.3 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 2.9 APG, & 1.0 SPG.

12-6 (6-0) Eastern Illinois
Solid Wins:
-Ball State 61-54 (Home)
-Northern Illinois 59-55 (Home)
-Indiana State 60-56 (Road)
-Cleveland State 67-65 (Road)
-Belmont 84-73 (Home)
-Eastern Kentucky 72-65 (Road)
Power Six Conference Losses:
-Cincinnati 54-49 (Road)
-#23 Creighton 75-53 (Road)
Last Game:
-Win Against Morehead State 65-62 (Road)
Key Players:
---#35 Chris Olivier (JR)
-11.8 PPG & 5.5 RPG.
---#15 Trae Anderson (JR)
-11.1 PPG & 4.4 RPG.
---#5 Reggie Smith (SR)
-7.9 PPG & 2.8 RPG.
---#2 Cornell Johnson (FR)
-7.8 PPG, 2.0 RPG, & 4.2 APG.

Prediction:
Lantz Arena should be rocking for the "Game of the Decade" for Eastern Illinois men's basketball. The Panthers have not been to an NCAA Tournament since the 2000-2001 season and have not had a winning season since the 2008-2009 season. Could this be the year? Eastern Illinois came out hot to begin the conference season with six straight wins and have impressed me with victories over the Belmont Bruins, who won the Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship, by double figures and  last year's Ohio Valley Conference Tournament Champions, the Eastern Kentucky Colonials. The surprising thing for EIU is that they do not have a lot of scorers or one star player. Murray State doesn't have to worry about a lack of star power as they have arguably the best player in the conference in Sophomore Point Guard Cameron Payne. Payne has followed right in the footsteps of Houston Rockets' Point Guard Isaiah Cannan as he has had even better numbers in his first two years in Murray than the four year starter in college. Not only do the Racers have Payne but they have big man Jarvis Williams. Williams has been a load on Ohio Valley post players this season as he comes into tonight with the fourth most points and third most rebounds in the conference. Riding into Charleston with Payne and Williams is Jeffery Moss and T.J. Sapp who can also score the basketball. The Panthers will have their hands full but a win is necessary if they want to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time in more than ten years. So who will I pick in the best game of the evening? I cannot draw myself to go against Cameron Payne and Jarvis Williams as they are the best duo in the conference. I do look forward to seeing how the Panthers play but the alarm has finally went off at 8 o'clock and it is time for EIU to stop dreaming.
---Murray State 77, Eastern Illinois 60 


ROCKIN' AND ROLLIN' AT THE OHIO VALLEY TOURNAMENT
With Eastern Illinois surgence as an early contender with Cameron Payne's Murray State Racers and Craig Bradshaw's Belmont Bruins it is always interesting to see where your team stands currently if the 2015 Ohio Valley Conference Tournament started today.
The Ohio Valley Conference Tournament if it Started Today
1. Eastern Illinois 12-6 (6-0)
2. Eastern Kentucky 11-6 (3-1)
3. Murray State 15-4 (5-0) 
4. Tennessee-Martin 11-6 (3-1) 
5. Belmont 11-7 (3-2) 
6. SE Missouri State 9-10 (3-3)
7. SIU Edwardsville 7-10 (3-3) 
8. Austin Peay 6-12 (1-3)
**The Seeding Works as Follows:
-The division leader with the best winning percentage gets first seed.
-The division leader with the lowest winning percentage gets second seed.
-Seeds three through eight goes to the teams with the third through eigth highest winning percentages. In other words what division a team is in does not matter at this point.

Wednesday
G1: BEL vs PEAY (BEL Won First Matchup on Road)
G2: SEMO vs SIUE
Thursday
G3: UTM vs W-G1
G4: MUR vs W-G2 
Friday
G5: EIU vs W-G3
G6: EKY vs W-G4

PW's Prediction Record Coming into Today: 92-38 (25-10 in the MVC) 


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