Saturday, January 24, 2015

PW's MVC Men's Basketball Predictions for (Jan 24/Jan 25)

By Peyton Wesner

1:05 PM EST
13-6 (3-4) Loyola (IL)
at 9-10 (5-2) Indiana State

13-6 (3-4) Loyola (IL)
Solid Wins:
-Kent State 69-61 (Road)
-Texas Tech 62-44 in the Semi-Finals of the Las Vegas Classic.
-Boise State 48-45 in the Championship of the Las Vegas Classic.
-Bradley 64-49 (Home)
-Evansville 71-70 (Road)
"Never Should Have Happened" Losses:
-Tulane 83-70 (Home)
-Southern Illinois 59-52 (Road) 
Last Game:
-Loss To Evansville 65-56 (Home)
Players to Watch:
---#32 Christian Thomas (SR) 
-12.6 PPG & 4.2 RPG. 
---#4 Devon Turk (JR)
-8.4 PPG & 2.4 RPG.
---#24 Montel James (JR)
-7.9 PPG & 4.1 RPG.

9-9 (5-1) Indiana State
Solid Wins:
-Illinois State 63-61 (Road)
-Evansville 79-75 in Overtime (Home)
-Missouri State 71-56 (Home)
-Illinois State 71-70 in Overtime (Home) 
"Never Should Have Happened" Losses:
-Eastern Illinois 60-56 (Home)
-Missouri-Kansas City 73-70 in Double Overtime.
-Drake 84-78 (Road) 
Last Game:
-Loss To #20 Northern Iowa 66-60 (Road)
Players to Watch:
---#11 Devonte Brown (JR) 
-11.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG, & 2.6 APG.
---#4 Brenton Scott (FR) 
-11.5 PPG & 3.6 RPG.
---#1 Khristian Smith (JR) 
-11.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 2.2 APG, & 1.1 SPG.
---#5 Justin Gant (SR)
-9.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG, & 1.0 BPG.

Prediction:
I hate to say it but I feel like Loyola is hitting a losing streak that will move them from the middle of the standings to the bottom. The Ramblers are on a two game losing streak with a schedule that does not get any easier with road matchups at Indiana State and at Wichita State coming up next. Also, on top of it all, star Milton Doyle's ankle injury that he has been fighting through all season has finally sidelined him. Without Doyle, Loyola was defeated by the Evansville Purple Aces in a very winnable game as the Ramblers' defense held the Missouri Valley Conference's leading scorer, D.J. Balentine, to two for twelve shooting and six points. The problem was the home team's offense as their leading scorer, Christian Thomas, was held to three for nine shooting and eight points. Without Doyle, Loyola is limping into Terre Haute for a matchup with a sliding Indiana State Sycamores team. Indiana State's undefeated conference record came to an end a week from today at Drake in a suprising upset. Then, Indiana State dropped another game at Northern Iowa, but despite the defeat, the Sycamores' performance impressed me. I thought for sure that they would be blown out by a superior foe, but they were in the game until the very end. Really, if it wasn't for UNI's Matt Bohanon hitting five three pointers and having seventeen points, we may very well be having a different conversation. Nevertheless, both Loyola and Indiana State are coming in with no momentum but I see a significant advantage for the Sycamores since they are at home and don't have to face the best facilitator in the conference (Milton Doyle). In addition, I believe Christian Thomas will struggle again as he does not have "Batman" fighting behind him.
---Indiana State 65, Loyola (IL) 55

4:00 PM EST-Full Court/ESPN3
9-11 (2-5) Southern Illinois
at 14-5 (4-3) Evansville

9-11 (2-5) Southern Illinois
Solid Wins:
-SIU-Edwardsville 79-67 (Road)
-Loyola (IL) 59-52 (Home)
"Should Not Have Happened" Losses:
-Southeast Missouri State 55-54 (Home)
-New Orleans 56-52 (Home)
Last Game:
-Win Against Bradley 70-59 (Home)
Players to Watch:
---#25 Anthony Beane (JR) 
-16.4 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.3 SPG.
---#33 Sean O'Brien (SO) 
-9.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.7 APG, & 1.3 SPG.
---#14 Jordan Caroline (FR) 
-9.0 PPG & 6.2 RPG.

14-5 (4-3) Evansville
Solid Wins:
-San Francisco 79-72 in Third Place Game of Gulf Coast Showcase.-Wright State 86-78 (Home)-Belmont 65-62 (Road)-Ohio 81-69 in Overtime (Home)-#23 Northern Iowa 52-49 (Home)-Bradley 66-56 (Home)
Losses:
-Green Bay 64-62 in Semi-Final of Gulf Coast Showcase.
-Murray State 81-79 (Home)
-Indiana State 79-75 in Overtime (Road)
-Loyola (IL) 71-70 (Home)
-#13 Wichita State 61-41 (Home)
Last Game:
-Win Against Loyola (IL) 65-56 (Road)
Players to Watch:
---#31 D.J. Balentine (JR)
-19.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG, & 3.5 APG.
---#55 Egidijus Mockevicius
-13.0 PPG, 10.8 RPG, & 2.8 BPG.
---#50 Blake Simmons (SO)
-8.1 PPG & 2.4 APG.

ATTENTION MISSOURI VALLEY CONFERENCE TEAMS, ANTHONY BEANE IS SCORING THE BASKETBALL AGAIN. PLEASE TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTION! The Southern Illinois Salukis must have thought the conference season started on January 18th, because since then SIU is 2-0 and are looking like a team that could dig themselves out of playing on Thursday Night when Arch Madness comes around. "The Valley's" second leading scorer Anthony Beane has finally remembered how to put the ball in the basket again and is averaging 18 points per game in his last two games after a stretch of five meetings where he  averaged 9.2 points per game while shooting 23.4% from the field. Big difference right? The Evansville Purple Aces hope they can turn in a good defensive performance against Beane and the Salukis. On Wednesday Night, Evansville overcame a shooting slump from the conference's leading scorer D.J. Balentine to win 65-56 at Loyola. The Purple Aces received big lifts from Blake Simmons and Adam Wing who are trying  to increase their production to cover Mislav Brozja's, who broke his hand in Evansville's loss against Wichita State. That production from Wing and Simmons will be needed this afternoon against Southern Illinois, who will bring momentum into the Ford Center. Despite what the betting line says which is a nine point UE victory, I see this as a trap game as well as a close battle for the Purple Aces. The matchup for everyone to keep their eye on is between the Juniors and "The Valley's" first and second leading scorers, Evansville's D.J. Balentine and Southern Illinois's Anthony Beane. As Beane's performances has improved in his last two games, Balentine has struggled in his last three games as he has shot 24.3% from the field and has averaged 9.7 points per game. Luckily for Balentine and Coach Marty Simmons is that they have Egidijus Mockevicius who is averaging a double-double while controling the paint for his team. Mockevicius is easily the man that creates an advantage or disadvantage for Evansville since it all depends if the big man from Lithuania can stay out of foul trouble. Today though, I feel Balentine will regain his shooting stroke on his home rim and make enough baskets at the right time to push the Purple Aces to victory. Despite picking Evansville, I do see Beane having 15+ points and a good game.
---Evansville 63, Southern Illinois 57

8:00 PM EST-ESPN3
8-11 (2-5) Missouri State
at 6-14 (1-6) Bradley

8-11 (2-5) Missouri State
Conference Wins:
-Southern Illinois 53-50 (Road)
-Drake 62-37 (Home)
Conference Losses:
-Indiana State 71-56 (Road)
-Illinois State 69-55 (Home)
-Evansville 56-54 (Home)
-#23 Northern Iowa 60-46 (Road)
Last Game:
-Loss to #14 Wichita State 76-53 (Home)
Players to Watch:
---#2 Austin Ruder (SO) 
-8.6 PPG & 2.2 RPG.
---#23 Dorrian Williams (JR)
-8.1 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 4.6 RPG, & 1.4 SPG.
---#30 Camyn Boone (JR)
-7.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG, & 1.1 BPG.

6-14 (1-6) Bradley
Solid Wins:
-Central Michigan 84-73 (Home)
-Southern Illinois 63-44 (Home)
"Never Should Have Happened" Losses:
-Texas-Arlington 86-75 (Home)
-Robert Morris 68-61 (Home)
-UC Irvine 55-47 in the Semi-Final of the Las Vegas Holiday Hoops Classic.
-Arkansas-Little Rock 64-54 in the Consolation Championship of the Las Vegas Holiday Hoops Classic.
Last Game:
-Loss to Southern Illinois 70-59 (Road)
Players to Watch:
---#2 Warren Jones (JR)
-13.4 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.9 APG, & 1.7 SPG.
---#5 Tramique Sutherland (JR)
-11.7 PPG, 4.4 RPG, & 3.0 APG.
---#4 Auston Barnes (SR) 
-10.8 PPG & 3.9 RPG.
---#24 Omari Grier (JR) 
-9.1 PPG & 2.2 APG.
---#0 Ka'Darryl Bell (JR)
-7.5 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 2.6 APG, & 1.2 SPG.

Prediction:
Missouri State has continued to lose since the departure of the Missouri Valley Conference's second leading scorer Marcus Marshall. Without Marshall, the Bears have dropped three games while averaging 51 points per contest. Missing the scoring? I would say so as Austin Ruder is now Missouri State's leading scorer with the low points per game average of 8.6. In fact, Missouri State's opponent, Bradley, has four players that average more points than Ruder alone. The Braves have so much potential but injuries and a lack of defense has cost them multiple games. Last Wednesday, Bradley lost against the only team they have found a way to win against in conference play, Southern Illinois. Tonight the team from Peoria hopes to add another team to their list since they are jockeying for position in the standings. Personally, and I know I have emphasized this, without Marshall the Bears will not win. Think about it, Missouri State is missing 19 points per game, that's a hard hole to fill for any team. Bradley is a "Thursday Night Arch Madness" team but they should come out on top at home. 
---Bradley 59, Missouri State 58

2:00 PM EST-ESPN3
4-15 (1-6) Drake
at 17-2 (7-0) 14. Wichita State

4-15 (1-6) Drake
Wins:
-IUPUI 73-60 (Home)
-Jackson State 76-66 (Home)
-Simpson (Non-Division I) 84-62 (Home)
-Indiana State 84-78 (Home)
Single-Digit Conference Losses:
-#16 Wichita State 66-58 (Home)
-Loyola (IL) 50-47 (Road)
Last Game:
-Loss To Illinois State 64-56 (Home) 
Players to Watch:
---#2 Gary Ricks Jr. (SR) 
-11.1 PPG, 3.3 RPG, & 2.3 APG.
---#12 Reed Timmer (FR) 
-9.7 PPG, 1.8 RPG, & 2.7 APG.
---#3 Jordan Daniels (SR)
-8.6 PPG.
---#11 Jacob Enevold Jensen (SR) 
-7.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, & 1.1 BPG
---#25 Chris Caird (SR)
-7.7 PPG & 2.1 RPG.

17-2 (7-0) 14. Wichita State
Lunardi's Bracketology: 4 Seed
Solid Wins:
-Memphis 71-56 (in Sioux Falls)
-St. Louis 81-52 (Home)
-Seton Hall 77-68 (Home)
-Alabama 53-52 (Home)
-Illinois State 70-62 (Home)
-Loyola (IL) 67-53 (Road)
-Evansville 61-41 (Road)
Losses:
-#25 Utah 69-68 in Overtime (Road)
-George Washington 60-54 in the Championship of the Diamond Head Classic.
Last Game:
-Win Against Missouri State 76-53 (Road)
Players to Watch:
---#31 Ron Baker (JR) 
-16.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 2.3 APG, & 1.3 SPG.
---#12 Darius Carter (SR) 
-12.9 PPG & 6.2 RPG.
---#23 Fred Van Vleet (JR) 
-10.7 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 5.6 APG, & 1.8 SPG.
---#32 Tekele Cotton (SR) 
-10.1 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.9 APG, & 1.3 SPG.

Prediction:
Parents shield your kids' eyes because this one could get ugly quick. The Drake Bulldogs are looking like a much better team than the one that faced off with the Shockers in the Missouri Valley Conference opener in Des Moines back on New Years Eve as they have defeated the Indiana State Sycamores for their first conference win and played well against a tough Illinois State in a loss on Tuesday. The Bulldogs' offense is ran by Senior Guard Gary Ricks Jr. Initially, Ricks Jr. started off poorly in conference play as he was averaging 4.8 points per game, which was less than one half of his season average while shooting 21.8% from the field. That all changed on a weekday evening in Chicago. Ricks Jr. was coming off the bench for his team, but he did not let the fact affect his performance in a negative way but rather in a positive way as the guard from Los Angeles, California, scored twenty points in the first half against the Ramblers. The second half would be a different story, as Ricks Jr. only netted four more points in a three point loss. The next game was different as he had another fantastic game with twenty-three points to give his team their first win since before Christmas. The fact is that Ricks Jr. is coming in playing his best basketball but so are the Wichita State Shockers. Wichita State has continued to make MVC teams look inferior this season as they came in as the Pre-Season conference favorite. The Shockers are led by Wooden Award finalist Ron Baker who is having his best season in Wichita. In addition to Baker's improvement, Darius Carter has become a weapon on the block and has increased his 2013-2014 game averages by five points per game and 1.7 rebounds per game. Also, we cannot forget about Pre-Season All American Fred Van Vleet and offensive stopper Tekele Cotton, who are both coming in averaging double-digit points per game. Now you see why I have a feeling this will get nasty at the Charles Koch Arena this afternoon. I predict Gary Ricks Jr. will be shut down by Tekele Cotton and Darius Carter will dominate Jacob Enevold Jensen just like he did to Egidijus Mockevicius a week ago yesterday. Oh and I cannot forget...Ron Baker and Fred Van Vleet will combine for  around thirty points. 
---Wichita State 72, Drake 55

4:00 PM EST-ESPNU
17-2 (6-1) 20. Northern Iowa
at 12-7 (4-3) Illinois State

17-2 (6-1) 20. Northern Iowa
Lunardi's Bracketology: 7 Seed
Solid Wins:
-Stephen F. Austin 79-77 in Overtime (Road)
-Virginia Tech 73-54 in Semi-Final of Cancun Challenge.
-Northwestern 61-42 in Championship of Cancun Challenge.
-Iowa 56-44 (in Des Moines)
-Loyola (IL) 67-58 (Home)
Losses:
-VCU 93-87 in Overtime (Road)
-Evansville 52-49 (Road)
Last Game:
-Win Against Indiana State 66-60 (Home)
Players to Watch:
---#10 Seth Tuttle (SR)
-14.9 PPG, 6.4 RPG, & 3.2 APG.
---#11 Wes Washpun (JR)
-9.4 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.5 APG, & 1.2 SPG.
---#1 Deon Mitchell (SR)
-7.3 PPG, 2.1 RPG, & 2.2 APG.

12-7 (4-3) Illinois State
Solid Wins:
-Old Dominion 64-45 in the Semi-Final of Paradise Jam.
-DePaul 78-72 (Road)
-Missouri State 69-55 (Road)
Conference Losses
-Indiana State 63-61 (Home)
-#16 Wichita State 70-62 (Road)
-Indiana State 71-70 in Overtime (Road)
Last Game:
-Win Against Drake 64-56 (Road)
Players to Watch:
---#3 Daishon Knight (SR) 
-15.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.6 APG, & 1.2 SPG.
---#44 DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell (JR)
-12.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG, & 1.0 SPG.
---#4 Bobby Hunter (SR) 
-9.6 PPG, 2.3 RPG, & 1.9 APG.
---#22 Reggie Lynch (SO) 
-8.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG, & 2.8 BPG.

Prediction:
If anyone isn't excited about this game, then I assume you did not get the memo that these are two of the hottest teams in the Missouri Valley Conference not named Wichita State. Northern Iowa has won their last six games while Illinois State has won their last four out of five. The Northern Iowa Panthers are coming off a huge win against the Indiana State Sycamores on Wednesday as UNI took sole possession of second place in the standings. All-MVC Center Seth Tuttle received some help from Matt Bohanon as the two scored a combined 33 of Northern Iowa's 66 points. Bohanon who has struggled shooting accurately this season came one point shy of passing his season high number of points (at VCU 18 points). Once again another man must step up to help Tuttle get the job done this afternoon. Really, the Panthers may need more than just one man to score the ball with Tuttle against an offensively sound Illinois State Redbird team. The Redbirds had a tough start to the conference season as they were narrowly edged at home by this year's surprise team, Indiana State, and then eventually put away at Wichita State to make their record 0-2. The season had a bleak look but then things seemed to turn around as they defeated Drake and Missouri State to become 2-2 and in the middle of the pack in "The Valley." Once again though, Indiana State outlasted the Redbirds in Terre Haute dropping them back under .500. Luckily for Illinois State is that they are coming in on a two game winning streak with star guard Daishon Knight averaging 20 points in his last two starts. Upset alert? UNI should keep their eyes out for Illinois State as the Redbirds do have enough scoring power to win this game. It will all depend on if the Panthers defense can get enough stops to keep the game low scoring because the fact is that Northern Iowa has a better chance of winning when the games are low scoring, grind them out kind of match-ups. Even though home court advantage resides with Illinois State, experience is with Northern Iowa.
---Northern Iowa 60, Illinois State 58

THE ROAD TO ARCH MADNESS
It is never to early to begin looking ahead to March so here is the seedings and matchups if the 2015 Missouri Valley Conference Tournament started today.
Arch Madness if it Started Today
1. Wichita State 17-2 (7-0)
2. Northern Iowa 17-2 (6-1)
3. Indiana State 9-10 (5-2) 
4. Evansville 14-5 (4-3) 
5. Illinois State 12-7 (4-3)
6. Loyola (IL) 13-6 (3-4) 
7. Missouri State 8-11 (2-5) 
8. Southern Illinois 9-11 (2-5)
9. Bradley 6-14 (1-6)
10. Drake 4-15 (1-6)

Thursday Night
G1: MOST vs DRAKE (MOST Won First Matchup at JQH Arena (MOST))
G2: SIU vs BRAD (Split Season Series, Home Team Won Both Matchups)

Friday Afternoon
G3: WSU vs W-G1
G4: UE vs ILST 
Friday Night
G5: INST vs LOY (Teams Play Tonight at the Hulman Center (INST))
G6: UNI vs W-G2

PW's Prediction Record Coming into Today: 102-41 (28-10 in the MVC)



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